From Xi Jinping's purges, succession issues, to US-China technology competition, we discuss some of the most noteworthy topics with renowned historian Professor Stephen Kotkin. Professor Kotkin is a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and a leading scholar on the Soviet Union and Stalin. He is the author of the two-volume "Stalin" biography and is currently writing the third volume. His research on Stalin has reshaped our understanding of the operating logic of Leninist regimes. His research extends beyond the Soviet Union to global authoritarianism and increasingly focuses on contemporary China. In this episode, Professor Kotkin explains why he says Stalin, not Mao Zedong, is the ultimate model of a dictator, why Hitler faced multiple assassination attempts while Stalin did not, how to understand Xi Jinping's current purges from Stalin's purges in the 1930s, what elite dissatisfaction means for Leninist totalitarian regimes, and why Stalin, Mao Zedong, and Xi Jinping are unwilling to appoint successors, among many other questions. This is the first time Unclear Podcast has recorded a program in English. On YouTube, we have carefully prepared Chinese subtitles for our listeners. Click here: [https://youtu.be/WMb7y1JIgUA](https://youtu.be/WMb7y1JIgUA) We believe that Professor Kotkin's research is essential for understanding contemporary China. PS: Registration for the second Unclear Festival online ticket is now officially open! We will also give away a free online ticket to donors and paid subscribers of the Unclear Podcast, including new donations and subscriptions before September 1st. Thank you for your long-term support, which allows this program to continue. Click to purchase tickets or register for free tickets: [https://www.zeffy.com/en-US/ticketing/2025-online](https://www.zeffy.com/en-US/ticketing/2025-online) Offline ticket purchase link: [https://zeffy.com/en-US/ticketing/2025-in-person](https://zeffy.com/en-US/ticketing/2025-in-person) **Timeline:** 02:43 Why is Stalin, not Mao Zedong, the Gold Standard of dictators? 08:00 Does Stalin's rise help to understand Xi Jinping? 12:54 Did Xi Jinping intend to become a dictator from the start? 14:10 The relationship between the Communist Party and private enterprises 18:06 "You can't be half a communist, just like you can't be half pregnant" 22:14 Two things learned at the Central Party School: the rise of the East and the fall of the West, and the collapse of the Soviet Union 24:57 The incompatibility of Leninist regimes with political reform 26:29 Similarities between Xi Jinping's purges and Stalin's purges 30:44 Xi Jinping's dilemma in a huge system: even close aides can be a threat 38:39 Limitations of Xi Jinping's power in daily affairs or policy issues 39:34 Why Hitler faced multiple assassination attempts while Stalin did not 45:14 The biggest weakness of the Xi regime: elite doubts 49:50 The unexpected revealing effect of the Zero-COVID policy on ordinary Chinese people 52:39 Are CIA recruitment ads for CCP officials effective? 54:50 Taking Confucius Institutes as an example, how to respond to the CCP's challenges in soft power 59:50 How to respond to current US immigration and economic policies 1:09:57 Technology showdown: Lessons from the US-Soviet Cold War and a comparison of the technological strength of the Soviet Union and China 1:19:00 Can technological competition solve the legitimacy and fragility of the regime? 1:28:50 The Taiwan issue and Xi Jinping's considerations 1:41:50 Will Xi Jinping appoint a successor? 1:50:01 We must prepare for Xi Jinping to continue in power for 20 or even 25 years 1:52:30 "In an unfree system, you can still live a free life" 2:00:10 Guest recommendations Guest Recommendations: [https://book.douban.com/subject/2254651/](https://book.douban.com/subject/2254651/) Elias Canetti 《Auto-da-Fé》 [https://www.ucpress.edu/books/ideology-and-organization-in-communist-china/paper](https://www.ucpress.edu/books/ideology-and-organization-in-communist-china/paper) Franz Schurmann《Ideology and Organization in Communist China》 [https://www.sup.org/books/history/partys-interests-come-first](https://www.sup.org/books/history/partys-interests-come-first) Tang Zhixue 《The Party's Interests Come First》 (Biography of Xi Zhongxun) Related Links: [https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/299269/stalin-by-stephen-kotkin/](https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/299269/stalin-by-stephen-kotkin/) 《Stalin: Paradoxes of Power, 1878-1928》 [https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/529319/stalin-by-stephen-kotkin/](https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/529319/stalin-by-stephen-kotkin/) 《Stalin: Waiting for Hitler, 1929-1941》 Hosted on Acast. See [https://acast.com/privacy](https://acast.com/privacy) for more information.

Original title: Stephen Kotkin：从斯大林的大清洗看今天的习近平

Original description: <p>从习近平的清洗、接班人问题、到中美技术竞争，我们和著名历史学家Stephen Kotkin科特金教授讨论了当下最值得关注的一些话题。&nbsp;</p><br /><p>科特金教授是胡佛研究所高级研究员，也是研究苏联和斯大林最顶尖的学者。他是两卷本《斯大林传》的作者，正在撰写第三卷。他对斯大林的研究重塑了我们对列宁主义政权运行逻辑的理解。他的研究超越了苏联，延伸到全球威权主义，并越来越关注当代中国。&nbsp;</p><br /><p>在这期节目里，科特金教授解释了他为什么说斯大林而不是毛泽东是独裁者的最高典范，为什么希特勒多次遭遇暗杀而斯大林却没有，如何从斯大林30年代的大清洗来理解习近平眼下的清洗，精英阶层的不满对于列宁主义极权政权意味着什么，为什么斯大林、毛泽东和习近平都不愿指定接班人等很多问题。&nbsp;</p><br /><p>这是不明白播客首次用英文录制节目，在YouTube上，我们为听众朋友们精心准备了中文字幕。&nbsp;点击直达：<a href="https://youtu.be/WMb7y1JIgUA" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://youtu.be/WMb7y1JIgUA</a></p><br /><p>我们相信，科特金教授的研究对于理解当下的中国至关重要。</p><br /><p>PS：第二届不明白节线上票正式开放报名！我们也将为不明白播客的捐赠人及付费订阅听众免费赠送一张线上票，包含9月1日前的新增捐赠及订阅，感谢大家的长期支持，使这个节目可以一直做下去。点击即可直接购票、登记赠票信息：<a href="https://www.zeffy.com/en-US/ticketing/2025-online" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://www.zeffy.com/en-US/ticketing/2025-online</a></p><br /><p>线下票购买链接：<a href="https://zeffy.com/en-US/ticketing/2025-in-person" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://zeffy.com/en-US/ticketing/2025-in-person</a>&nbsp;</p><br /><p><strong>时间轴：</strong></p><p>02:43 为什么斯大林而不是毛泽东是独裁者的最高典范Gold Standard？</p><p>08:00 斯大林的崛起轨迹是否有助于理解习近平？</p><p>12:54 习近平一上台就打算好了做独裁者吗？</p><p>14:10 共产党和私营企业的关系</p><p>18:06 “你不可能只是半个共产政权，就好像你不可能是半个孕妇”</p><p>22:14 中央党校学习两件事：东升西降与苏联倒台</p><p>24:57 列宁主义政权与政治改革的不兼容性</p><p>26:29 习近平清洗和斯大林清洗的相似之处</p><p>30:44习近平在庞大系统里的困境：亲信也可能是威胁</p><p>38:39 习近平在日常事务或政策问题上的权力局限</p><p>39:34 为什么希特勒多次遭遇暗杀而斯大林却没有</p><p>45:14 习政权最大弱点：精英阶层的疑虑</p><p>49:50 清零政策意外对普通中国人的揭示作用</p><p>52:39 中情局招募中共官员的广告是否有效</p><p>54:50 以孔子学院为例，如何应对中共在软实力上的挑战</p><p>59:50 如何回应美国目前的移民和经济政策</p><p>1:09:57 科技对决：美苏冷战的教训及苏联与中国技术实力的比较</p><p>1:19:00 科技竞争可以解决政权合法性及统治的脆弱性吗？</p><p>1:28:50 台湾问题与习近平的考量</p><p>1:41:50 习近平会指定继承者吗？</p><p>1:50:01 我们要为习近平继续执政20年甚至25年做好准备</p><p>1:52:30 “在不自由的体制下，依然能活出自由的人生”</p><p>2:00:10 嘉宾推荐&nbsp;</p><br /><p>嘉宾推荐：</p><p><a href="https://book.douban.com/subject/2254651/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Elias Canetti 《Auto-da-Fé》</a></p><p><a href="https://www.ucpress.edu/books/ideology-and-organization-in-communist-china/paper" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Franz Schurmann《Ideology and Organization in Communist China》</a></p><p><a href="https://www.sup.org/books/history/partys-interests-come-first" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">唐志学《The Party's Interests Come First》（习仲勋传）</a></p><br /><p>相关链接：</p><p><a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/299269/stalin-by-stephen-kotkin/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">《斯大林传第一卷——权力的悖论 1878-1928》</a></p><p><a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/529319/stalin-by-stephen-kotkin/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">《斯大林传第二卷——等待希特勒 1929-1941》</a>&nbsp;</p><hr /><p style="color: grey; font-size: 0.75em;"> Hosted on Acast. See <a href="https://acast.com/privacy" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: grey;" target="_blank">acast.com/privacy</a> for more information.</p>

In April-July this year, four well-known entrepreneurs, Bi Guangjun, Liu Wenchao, Zeng Yuzhou, and Wang Linpeng, died unnaturally one after another. From January to July this year, at least 19 actual controllers, chairmen, or senior executives of listed companies have been investigated by procuratorial organs with "retention" measures. Among them is Wang Linpeng, chairman of Easyhome (formerly Beijing Easyhome) who just passed away - he was detained three times, and only four days after his last detention was lifted, he suddenly fell to his death. Looking back at the past 5 years, from the Ren Zhiqiang case, the Sun Dawu case, the so-called crackdown on organized crime, to the long-distance fishing targeting entrepreneurs, to today's entrepreneur bankruptcies, debts, detentions, imprisonments, and suicides, the survival environment of private entrepreneurs continues to deteriorate. This episode's guest, Wu Lei, is a well-known Chinese criminal defense lawyer who has defended many entrepreneurs' cases. In 2019, he was retaliated against by the government and had his lawyer's license revoked, but he has been working behind the scenes to protect the rights of private entrepreneurs. In Wu Lei's career experience, what have Chinese private entrepreneurs experienced in recent years? In addition to the crackdown on organized crime and long-distance fishing, what other unknown case-handling models are there? How does he view the experiences of these entrepreneurs? Why does he say entrepreneurs are "naive and childish"? Wu Lei talked about many unreported cases. As a lawyer, in a situation where the rule of law is destroyed and the parties and their families are threatened, why does Wu Lei still insist that judicial defense is important? In an environment where political will outweighs legal will, what else can entrepreneurs do? PS: The 2nd "Don't Understand" Festival is coming! On September 6th, listeners are welcome to come to Washington, D.C. We will spend a day reviewing the road we have traveled, reflecting on the reality we are in, and imagining the possibilities of the future through documentary screenings, crosstalk performances, and live conversations. Click the link to register now: [https://zeffy.com/en-US/ticketing/2025-in-person](https://zeffy.com/en-US/ticketing/2025-in-person) **Timeline**: 00:00 A series of entrepreneur suicides and detentions 02:19 Wu Lei's career experience, "not surprised by all this" 04:23 What is retention? "Both 'Shuanggui' and retention have been abused" 07:10 The environment of the retention center, "comparable to a black jail" 10:54 How to view the "original sin" problem of entrepreneurs 14:35 Timeline of the deteriorating survival environment for private entrepreneurs 16:54 The relationship between the crackdown on organized crime and the crackdown on entrepreneurs 19:17 The Sun Dawu case as a turning point: the exodus of entrepreneurs, or leaning towards the central government 24:35 The "naivety and childishness" of entrepreneurs: the desire to serve the country through industry and ignorance of real risks 29:17 The "fishing" wave of young entrepreneurs: start-ups become fiscal prey. 31:56 Case-handling models Wu Lei has seen in his legal career: forcing entrepreneurs to fabricate bribery facts 37:35 Are entrepreneurs in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou more at ease? 42:10 How to understand the attitude of entrepreneurs' families towards lawyers? 45:16 Under judicial injustice, the market for brave and serious lawyers is growing 47:27 Should wrongful convictions be made public? The game of bribery vs. defense 52:38 Wu Lei's recommendations **Cases and people mentioned in this podcast**: Sun Dawu case: [https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%AD%99%E5%A4%A7%E5%8D%88](https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%AD%99%E5%A4%A7%E5%8D%88) Entrepreneur Ren Zhiqiang: [https://zh.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E4%BB%BB%E5%BF%97%E5%BC%BA](https://zh.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E4%BB%BB%E5%BF%97%E5%BC%BA) Zhang Dewu case of Xiangda Group: [https://china.caixin.com/2023-01-04/101985224.html](https://china.caixin.com/2023-01-04/101985224.html) Real Kung Fu Cai Dabiao case: [https://other.caixin.com/2013-12-13/100617471.html](https://other.caixin.com/2013-12-13/100617471.html) The gang-related case involving Wu Lei's client Lin Feng: [https://www.spp.gov.cn/spp/zhuanlan/201811/t20181101_397244.shtml](https://www.spp.gov.cn/spp/zhuanlan/201811/t20181101_397244.shtml) Lawyer Wang Quanzhang: [https://zh.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E7%8E%8B%E5%85%A8%E7%92%8B](https://zh.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E7%8E%8B%E5%85%A8%E7%92%8B) Hosted on Acast. See [acast.com/privacy](https://acast.com/privacy) for more information.

Original title: 伍雷：民营企业家接连自杀背后

Original description: <p>今年4月-7月，毕光钧、刘文超、曾育周、汪林朋四位知名企业家接连非自然死亡。今年1-7月，已有至少19位上市公司的实际控制人、董事长或高管被检察机关以“留置”措施调查。其中就包括刚刚去世的居然智家（前居然之家）董事长汪林朋——他被留置过三次，在最后一次留置被解除仅四天后，突然坠楼去世。</p><br /><p>回顾过去5年，从任志强案、孙大午案、所谓的扫黑除恶打击有组织犯罪、到针对企业家的远洋捕捞，到今天的企业家破产、负债、被留置、坐牢、自杀。民营企业家的生存环境不断恶化。</p><br /><p>本期节目的嘉宾伍雷是中国知名的刑辩律师，他为不少企业家的案件辩护过。2019年，他被政府打击报复，被吊销了律师执照，但一直在幕后为民营企业家维权出谋划策。在伍雷的从业经历里，中国民营企业家这些年都经历了什么？除了扫黑除恶、远洋捕捞、还有哪些不为人知的办案模式？</p><br /><p>他又如何看待这些企业家的遭遇？他为什么说企业家们“天真而又幼稚”？伍雷谈到了许多未被报道过的案件。作为律师，在法治被破坏殆尽、当事人及家属被威胁的状况下，伍雷为什么仍然坚持司法辩护是重要的？在政治意志大于法律意志的环境里，企业家还能做什么？</p><br /><p>PS：第二届不明白节来啦！9月6日，欢迎听众朋友们来到华盛顿，我们将用一天的时间，透过纪录片放映、相声表演与现场对谈，回顾我们来时的路，思考我们身处的现实，也共同想象未来的可能。点击链接立即报名：<a href="https://zeffy.com/en-US/ticketing/2025-in-person" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://zeffy.com/en-US/ticketing/2025-in-person</a></p><br /><p>文字版：<a href="https://bit.ly/bmb-164-text" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://bit.ly/bmb-164-text</a></p><br /><p><strong>时间轴</strong>：</p><p>00:00 一系列的企业家自杀和被留置事件</p><p>02:19 伍雷的从业经历，“对这一切并不吃惊”</p><p>04:23 被留置是怎么回事？“不管是双规还是留置，都被滥用了”</p><p>07:10 留置中心环境，“堪比黑监狱”</p><p>10:54 如何看待企业家的“原罪”问题</p><p>14:35 民营企业家生存环境恶化的时间线</p><p>16:54 扫黑除恶运动与打击企业家的关系</p><p>19:17 孙大午案作为转折点：企业家的润潮，或向中央靠拢</p><p>24:35 企业家的“天真与幼稚”：产业报国的愿望与对现实风险的无知</p><p>29:17 年轻的创业者被“捕捞”潮：创业公司成为财政猎物。</p><p>31:56 伍雷律师生涯见过的办案模式：逼迫企业家编造行贿事实</p><p>37:35 北上广的企业家会安心一点吗？</p><p>42:10 如何理解企业家的家属对律师的态度？</p><p>45:16 司法不公之下，勇敢认真的律师的市场越来越大</p><p>47:27 冤案到底要不要公开？行贿vs 辩护的博弈</p><p>52:38 伍雷的推荐</p><br /><p><strong>嘉宾推荐：</strong></p><p><a href="https://bit.ly/164-ngssl" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">杨小凯《牛鬼蛇神录》</a></p><p><a href="https://a.co/d/5FFoTG4" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">许成钢《制度基因》</a></p><p><a href="https://movie.douban.com/subject/19899628/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">电影《南营洞1985》郑智泳</a></p><p><a href="https://movie.douban.com/subject/21937445/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">电影《辩护人》杨宇硕</a></p><br /><p><strong>本期播客谈到的案件和人物</strong>：</p><p>孙大午案：<a href="https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%AD%99%E5%A4%A7%E5%8D%88" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/孙大午</a></p><p>企业家任志强：<a href="https://zh.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E4%BB%BB%E5%BF%97%E5%BC%BA" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://zh.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/任志强</a></p><p>襄大集团张德武案：<a href="https://china.caixin.com/2023-01-04/101985224.html" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://china.caixin.com/2023-01-04/101985224.html</a></p><p>真功夫蔡达标案：<a href="https://other.caixin.com/2013-12-13/100617471.html" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://other.caixin.com/2013-12-13/100617471.html</a></p><p>伍雷律师的当事人林风牵连的涉黑案：<a href="https://www.spp.gov.cn/spp/zhuanlan/201811/t20181101_397244.shtml" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://www.spp.gov.cn/spp/zhuanlan/201811/t20181101_397244.shtml</a></p><p>王全璋律师：<a href="https://zh.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E7%8E%8B%E5%85%A8%E7%92%8B" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://zh.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/王全璋</a></p><hr /><p style="color: grey; font-size: 0.75em;"> Hosted on Acast. See <a href="https://acast.com/privacy" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: grey;" target="_blank">acast.com/privacy</a> for more information.</p>

The Jiange street protests in Sichuan reignited hopes for resistance after a long absence, stemming from school bullying and culminating in government bullying of citizens, where everyone is vulnerable. Under strict censorship, people urgently want to know: What happened in Jiange? Why did school bullying escalate into the largest offline protest since the White Paper Movement in just a few days? In a live broadcast, Yuan Li and guests, Twitter blogger "Teacher Li Isn't Your Teacher" and YouTube blogger "World Bitter Tea" host Li Houchen, discussed concerning issues in the Jiange incident: What does the crudeness and failure of grassroots governance indicate? How did people spontaneously "charge the tower" to show support under information control in the Jiange incident? Is there a connection between the Jiange protests and the current economic recession, and the large number of unemployed young and middle-aged people returning to their hometowns? How should we understand such protests? Concerned listeners about China's reality and future also raised many good questions as always: Will there be follow-up to such protests? What can ordinary people do that is safe and effective? And, in a high-pressure environment, where can those awakened courage go? PS: The 2nd Bumingbai Festival is coming! On September 6th, listeners are welcome to Washington, D.C. We will spend a day reviewing our journey, reflecting on the reality we are in, and imagining the possibilities of the future through documentary screenings, crosstalk performances, and live conversations. Click the link to register now: https://zeffy.com/en-US/ticketing/2025-in-person Time stamps: 01:52 Teacher Li recaps the timeline of the Jiange incident 10:37 Teacher Li's three most memorable scenes: police recording with iPhones, questioning before violence, fleeing crowds 12:52 Li Houchen analyzes global youth movement patterns and China's unique parent protest wave 18:24 Offline protests have occurred from time to time after the White Paper Movement - Teacher Li is not surprised 22:19 The Jiange government's amateur performance: lack of communication skills, no contingency plans, baton clearing 25:22 How the Jiange's grassroots governance capabilities were destroyed: officialdom earthquakes, epidemic prevention promotions 31:59 With over 100 million views and spontaneous rushes, is information control gradually failing? 36:55 Li Houchen's pessimism: Will the social impact of group incidents weaken as technological means upgrade? 40:28 The connection between the reality of economic recession and unemployment and protests 48:27 Why Jiange? 54:43 Courage to resist has emerged, but all hope cannot be placed on individual courage 01:01:22 Teacher Li responds to "Are overseas efforts useful?": Otherwise why would the firewall exist? 01:06:05 Responding to listeners' sense of powerlessness 01:16:50 Is the "Bangladesh model" repeatedly mentioned in the Jiange incident effective? 01:19:37 Doxing police and information leakage from the public security system 01:23:07 Audience question: How to safely spread information within the Great Firewall 01:25:55 When "Long Live Chairman Mao" and "Give Me Democracy" appear at the same protest site 01:34:00 The national anthem and the Internationale, the accumulation of civil society is a process 01:37:24 What can we do in the future? Related links: Teacher Li Isn't Your Teacher 《Jiangyou - Police crack down on peaceful demonstration by citizens》https://youtu.be/k3gNe-1HUrA?feature=shared FearNation World Bitter Tea 《E181 White Paper Witness, Comparing Shanghai and Jiange Protests and Clearances, Explaining How Xi Jinping Destroys Grassroots Governance Capabilities》https://youtu.be/-6TeTXWL0_s?feature=shared Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Original title: 江油事件：人们为何走上街头？

Original description: <p>发生在四川江油的街头大规模抗议，久违地燃起了人们对反抗的希望。它始于校园霸凌，终于政府霸凌公民。在这个国家，每个人都是弱势的。</p><br /><p>在严密的封锁下，人们迫切想知道：江油发生了什么？为什么一场校园霸凌，能在几天内演变成白纸运动以来最大规模的线下抗议？</p><br /><p>在直播中，袁莉和两位嘉宾：推特博主“李老师不是李老师”、油管博主“世界苦茶”主理人李厚辰，一起讨论了江油事件中令人关心的问题：基层治理的粗暴与失效说明了什么？在江油事件中，人们如何在信息管控下自发“冲塔”声援？江油的抗议和当下的经济萧条、大量中青年失业返乡有没有关系？我们应该如何理解这样的抗议现场？</p><br /><p>关心中国现实与未来的听众们也一如既往提出了很多很好的问题：这样的抗议会不会有后续？普通人能做些什么才是安全又有效的？以及，在高压环境下，那些被唤醒的勇气，还能去往哪里？</p><br /><p><strong>文字版：</strong><a href="https://bit.ly/bmb-163-text" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://bit.ly/bmb-163-text</a></p><br /><p>&nbsp;PS：第二届不明白节来啦！9月6日，欢迎听众朋友们来到华盛顿，我们将用一天的时间，透过纪录片放映、相声表演与现场对谈，回顾我们来时的路，思考我们身处的现实，也共同想象未来的可能。点击链接立即报名：<a href="https://zeffy.com/en-US/ticketing/2025-in-person" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://zeffy.com/en-US/ticketing/2025-in-person</a>&nbsp;</p><br /><p><strong>时间轴：</strong></p><p>01:52 李老师复盘江油事件时间线</p><p>10:37 李老师印象最深的三个画面：用苹果手机录像的警察、暴力前的质问、逃散的人群</p><p>12:52 李厚辰分析全球青年运动模式和中国独特的家长抗议浪潮</p><p>18:24 白纸之后，线下抗议时有发生——李老师并不感到惊讶</p><p>22:19 江油市政府的草台表现：缺乏沟通的艺术、没有预案、甩棍清场</p><p>25:22 江油的基层治理能力如何被摧毁：官场地震，防疫提拔</p><p>31:59 过亿的浏览量和自发的冲他，信息管控是否在逐渐失效</p><p>36:55 李厚辰的悲观：群体事件对社会影响是否会随着技术手段升级而减弱</p><p>40:28 经济萧条失业的现实与抗议的关联</p><p>48:27 为什么是江油？</p><p>54:43 反抗的勇气出现了，但是不能把全部的希望寄托在个体的勇气上</p><p>01:01:22 李老师回应“海外的努力有用吗”：不然为什么防火墙会存在？</p><p>01:06:05 回应听众的现实无力感</p><p>01:16:50 江油事件中反复被提起的“孟加拉模式”有效吗？</p><p>01:19:37 开盒警擦与公安系统的信息外泄</p><p>01:23:07 观众提问:如何在墙内安全传播信息</p><p>01:25:55 当“毛泽东万岁”与“还我民主”出现在同一个抗议现场</p><p>01:34:00 国歌和国际歌，公民社会的积累是一个过程</p><p>01:37:24 未来，我们还能做什么？</p><br /><p><br /></p><p>相关链接：</p><p>李老师不是你老师<a href="https://youtu.be/k3gNe-1HUrA?feature=shared" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">《Jiangyou - Police crack down on peaceful demonstration by citizens》</a></p><p>FearNation 世界苦茶<a href="https://youtu.be/-6TeTXWL0_s?feature=shared" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">《E181 白纸亲历者, 对比上海与江油抗议与清场, 说明习近平如何摧毁基层治理能力》</a></p><hr /><p style="color: grey; font-size: 0.75em;"> Hosted on Acast. See <a href="https://acast.com/privacy" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: grey;" target="_blank">acast.com/privacy</a> for more information.</p>

Over the past six months, various rumors about the Chinese high-level political situation have sprung up. For example, Xi Jinping disappeared for 14 days due to health problems, Crown Prince Hu Chunhua was suspected of being reused again, and former Standing Committee member Wang Yang was going to take over... The "listening to the bed" community on YouTube and Twitter has always been very active on the topic of the top CCP leadership, but this time, including former US national security advisors, former diplomats, and some professional think tanks, have rarely joined in the interpretation and analysis. All of these have stirred up political imagination at home and abroad: Has Xi Jinping really lost power? Is the CCP really undergoing a power transition? In this episode, you will hear the most interesting and complex political rumors. The guest is Professor Wu Guoguang, a senior researcher at the Stanford Center for Chinese Economy and Institutions. Wu Guoguang entered the office of the CCP Central Committee's Political System Reform Research Group in 1986 and participated in the research and formulation of political reform policies before and after the 13th National Congress of the CCP. As a researcher who has left the system, how does he view and study these political rumors? How to rationally analyze the CCP's top-level politics? But compared to the truth of the rumors, the more important question is how should people survive in a highly opaque political system? Wu Guoguang mentioned that over the years, as a researcher studying China, the most important thing is to admit what he "knows" and "doesn't know." How to identify rumors, how to honestly face one's own "ignorance," and how not to fall into the illusion of "opium smoking"? This is a subject that every Chinese person must face. PS: The second Bumingbai Festival is coming! On September 6, listeners are welcome to come to Washington. We will use a day to review the road we have traveled, think about the reality we are in, and jointly imagine the possibilities of the future through documentary screenings, crosstalk performances, and live dialogues. Click the link to register now: https://zeffy.com/en-US/ticketing/2025-in-person Timeline: 02:25 Why does speculation without evidence repeatedly attract everyone's attention? 03:01 Who is creating political rumors? Wu Guoguang: The elite class is dissatisfied with Xi Jinping 06:13 Information opacity creates information hunger, but more attention should be paid to people's livelihood issues such as water safety and lead poisoning 08:06 Stalin's logic: The high concentration of power and governance disasters reinforce each other 14:28 Similarities between Stalin's purges and Xi Jinping's purges 16:13 The logic of factional struggles 19:40 What kind of factional struggle is Xi Jinping caught in? 22:36 Taking Chen Xiaojiang as an example, how to analyze the factional affiliation of political figures 25:19 After the 20th National Congress, how did the CCP's factional struggles change? 28:26 Wu Guoguang's complaints about the logic of "Tui Bei Tu" 30:50 Is there still a force within the CCP that can fight back against Xi Jinping? 41:16 How Wu Guoguang analyzes the "decision-making and coordination mechanism" 44:16 Is the "two-line system" about to be launched? Xi Jinping may "retire behind the scenes"? 47:56 Between hope and fact, how not to fall into illusion/decades of research career, honestly face one's own "ignorance" 52:00 An open mind, the ability to identify sources of information, and a cognitive basis for reality are all important 01:00:23 Guest recommendation Guest recommendation: Roy Medvedev "Let History Judge: The Origins and Consequences of Stalinism" Alexander Orlov "The Secret History of Stalin's Purges" Avtorkhanov "The Mystery of Stalin's Death" Related links: "China After Communism: Eight Essays on Transformation (Part 1)" "China After Communism: Eight Essays on Transformation (Part 2)" EP-110 Wu Guoguang: Has Xi Jinping's power reached its peak? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Original title: 吴国光：习近平失去权力了吗？

Original description: <p>过去半年，关于中国高层政治局势的各种传闻此起彼伏。例如，习近平隐身了14天，是因为健康出了问题，废太子胡春华疑似再度受到重用，前常委汪洋要接班……</p><br /><p>油管和推特上的听床师群体在中共高层话题上一向非常活跃，但这一次，包括美国前国家安全顾问、前外交官，还有一些专业智库，都罕见地加入了解读和分析。这些都激荡起海内外的政治想象：习近平真的失去权力了吗？中共真的在经历权力交接吗？</p><br /><p>这期节目，你会听到最有趣、也最复杂的政治传闻。节目嘉宾是斯坦福大学中国经济与制度中心高级研究员吴国光教授。吴国光1986年进入中共中央政治体制改革研讨小组办公室工作，参与了中共十三大前后政制改革政策的研究与制定。作为一个从体制内出走的研究者，他如何看待和研究这些政治传闻？如何理性解析中共高层政治？</p><br /><p>但相比传闻的真假，更重要的问题是，人应该如何在一个信息高度不透明的政治体制下生存？吴国光谈到，多年来，作为一个研究中国的研究者，最重要的事情是：承认自己“知道什么”、“不知道什么”。如何辨别传闻，如何诚实面对自己的“无知”，又如何不落入“抽鸦片”般的幻觉满足里？这是每个中国人都要面对的课题。</p><br /><p>PS：第二届不明白节来啦！9月6日，欢迎听众朋友们来到华盛顿，我们将用一天的时间，透过纪录片放映、相声表演与现场对谈，回顾我们来时的路，思考我们身处的现实，也共同想象未来的可能。点击链接立即报名：<a href="https://zeffy.com/en-US/ticketing/2025-in-person" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://zeffy.com/en-US/ticketing/2025-in-person</a></p><br /><p><strong>文字版</strong>：<a href="https://bit.ly/bmb-162-text" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://bit.ly/bmb-162-text</a></p><br /><p><strong>时间轴：</strong></p><p>02:25 为什么毫无证据的揣测反复吸引大家的关注</p><p>03:01 谁在制造政治传言？吴国光：精英阶层不满习近平</p><p>06:13 信息不透明造成信息饥渴，但更应该关注水安全、铅中毒等民生事件</p><p>08:06 斯大林逻辑：权力的高度集中和治理灾难相互强化</p><p>14:28 斯大林清洗和习近平清洗的相似之处</p><p>16:13 派系斗争的逻辑</p><p>19:40 习近平究竟陷入怎样的派系斗争</p><p>22:36 以陈小江为例，如何分析政治人物的派系所属</p><p>25:19 二十大之后，中共的派系斗争如何变化</p><p>28:26 吴国光对“推背图”逻辑的吐槽</p><p>30:50 中共内部还有能够反击习近平的力量吗？</p><p>41:16 吴国光如何分析“决策议事协调机构”</p><p>44:16 “两线制”即将启动？习近平可能“退居幕后”？</p><p>47:56 在希望和事实之间，如何不落入幻觉/几十年的研究生涯，诚实面对自己的“无知”</p><p>52:00 开放的心态、能辨别信息源、对现实有认知基础，都很重要</p><p>01:00:23 嘉宾推荐</p><br /><p><strong>嘉宾推荐：</strong></p><p><a href="https://bit.ly/162-rec-01" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">罗伊·麦德韦杰夫《让历史来审判：斯大林主义的起源及其后果》</a></p><p><a href="https://bit.ly/162-rec-02" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">亚历山大·奥尔洛夫《斯大林肃反秘史》</a></p><p><a href="https://bit.ly/162-rec-03" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">阿夫托尔哈诺夫《斯大林死之谜》</a></p><br /><p><strong>相关链接：</strong></p><p><a href="https://a.co/d/9KeRt4g" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">《走向共产党之后 的中国： 转型八论 （上）》</a></p><p><a href="https://a.co/d/jhR5xxL" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">《走向共产党之后 的中国： 转型八论 （下）》</a></p><p><a href="https://bumingbai.net/2024/08/31/wu-guoguang/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">EP-110 吴国光：习近平的权力是否到达了顶峰</a></p><hr /><p style="color: grey; font-size: 0.75em;"> Hosted on Acast. See <a href="https://acast.com/privacy" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: grey;" target="_blank">acast.com/privacy</a> for more information.</p>

Online loans seem ubiquitous. Ordering takeout or riding a shared bike brings loan promotions. Obtaining loans is easy: real-name authentication can unlock tens or hundreds of thousands of yuan. This year, the China Consumers Association advised young people to "live within their means" and "avoid online loan traps." But our interviews reveal borrowing stories more complex than "consumerism." A 27-year-old Shanghai internet worker, only worked half the time since graduation, repeatedly fell into a "robbing Peter to pay Paul" loan cycle during unstable employment. He remained hopeful, believing a stable job would repay the loans. But prolonged job searches shattered his confidence. He began defaulting on online loans, disregarding his credit score—marriage, children, and homeownership felt distant. A failed entrepreneur, now impoverished, is trapped in 1.6 million yuan of debt. Re-employed at 37, he experienced the job market's cruelty. The debt's real pressure isn't the amount, but the lack of hope for future earnings. A 26-year-old media professional recalled her online loan experience: how do young people's chaotic finances and unstable income interact? She also reflected on the younger generation's consumerism and lack of financial education. We also invited Professor Victor Shih of UC San Diego to discuss why online lending is so developed in China, how to understand young people's subsistence borrowing, and how these young people trapped in online loans impact China's economic future. **Timeline:** 01:29 Mr. Xia: Using Huabei in college, maxing out at 50-60,000 yuan after starting work. 02:35 Increased pressure after graduation: 20,000 yuan for job training, rental expenses. 05:54 First job paid 5,000 yuan, unable to make ends meet in Shanghai. 07:50 What is it like to be stuck with online loans while frequently job searching? 11:28 Hope for the future: loans can be repaid with a stable job. 15:14 Unwilling to ask family for help, unable to shatter their expectations. 15:56 Giving up on credit score: the path to buying a house, marriage, and children becomes distant. 18:09 Previously no concept of credit score, platform limits give the illusion of having a lot of money. 20:00 Mr. Shao: Entrepreneurial failure, middle-aged impoverishment. 22:19 Entrepreneurial journey: cross-border e-commerce, cryptocurrency trading, self-media. 24:14 Family income declined in 2017, completely losing money after 2019. 26:15 Currently three platforms have collapsed, anxiety stems from a lack of hope. 27:29 Delivering food at 37, "It's not that I don't want to work, it's that I really can't find a job." 31:27 Debt doubled in two years, why no mandatory loan suspension? "I think I can turn things around." 32:51 How to deal with overdue collections? 39:29 Unsuccessful job search, worried that food delivery will become a long-term reality. 41:50 Ms. Xie: How economic pressure increases from internship to work. 45:30 Resigned during the 2022 lockdown, lost stable income. 46:35 Media industry always delays manuscript fees, sometimes waiting three or four months, or even half a year. 47:51 Shame of borrowing online, the more confused the bills, the less you want to face them. 50:31 Self-reflection: Are young people swept up by consumerism? 52:31 Social experience is "when the economy declines, people should save," but during lockdowns, young people just want to live for today. 53:05 Differences in financial management concepts between young people in China and the United States. 58:25 Young people are gradually recognizing the reality of economic downturn. 1:04:19 Victor: Reasons for the development of online lending in China: low cost of capital, underdeveloped credit card system. 1:08:51 Is it reasonable for the government to try to boost consumption with consumer loans? 1:13:41 Large amounts of bad debt have limited impact on the financial system, but have a devastating impact on personal life, employment, and mental health. Related Links: [EP-156 People Struggling in Class Solidification (Part 1)](https://bumingbai.net/2025/06/22/ep-156-jiecengguhua/) [EP-157 Small-Town Essayists Struggling in Class Solidification (Part 2)](https://bumingbai.net/2025/06/28/ep-157-jiecengguhua/) [EP-035 Victor Shih: Will Local Debt Drag Down the Chinese Economy?](https://bumingbai.net/2023/02/04/ep-35-victor-shih-on-local-debt/) Hosted on Acast. See [acast.com/privacy](https://acast.com/privacy) for more information.

Original title: 借网贷的年轻人：从举债消费到举债活着

Original description: <p>网络贷款似乎到了无所不在的地步。点个外卖、骑个共享单车，都会收到来自平台的借贷推销。获取贷款也很容易：只要实名认证，就有可能获得几万甚至几十万元的额度。今年，中国消费者协会提示年轻人消费应该“量力而行”、“避免掉入网贷陷阱”。但在我们的采访中，人们借钱的故事，远比“消费主义”更复杂。</p><br /><p>一位27岁的上海互联网从业者，毕业后的几年里，只有一半时间在工作，在就业不稳定的几年间，多次陷入“拆东墙补西墙”的借贷循环。他始终对未来还抱有期望，坚信只要找到稳定工作，就能还清贷款。但越来越长的求职期击穿了他的信心。他开始任由网贷逾期，不再在乎自己的信用积分——因为结婚生子、买房买车的未来剧本，已经离他的现实生活很远了。</p><br /><p>一位创业失败的返贫者，陷入160万元的债务泥潭。37岁再就业，体会到求职的残酷，他说，债务带来的真正压力并不是一百多万的数字，而是看不到未来挣钱的希望。</p><br /><p>一位26岁的媒体人，回忆了自己使用网贷的经历，年轻人混乱的财务管理和不稳定的收入如何相互影响？她也反思了年轻一代的消费观、缺失的金钱教育。</p><br /><p>我们还邀请了加州大学圣地亚哥分校的史宗瀚（Victor Shih）教授，讨论网络贷款在中国为何如此发达?如何理解年轻人的生存性借贷？如何理解这些困在网贷里的年轻人对中国经济未来的发展会产生什么影响？</p><br /><p><strong>文字版：</strong><a href="https://bit.ly/bmb-161-text" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://bit.ly/bmb-161-text</a></p><br /><p>PS：第二届不明白节来啦！9月6日，欢迎听众朋友们来到华盛顿，你将遇见最有见识的学者、最具文采的作家和最有勇气的纪录片导演。我们将用一天的时间，透过纪录片放映、相声表演与现场对谈，回顾我们来时的路，思考我们身处的现实，也共同想象未来的可能。点击链接立即报名：<a href="https://zeffy.com/en-US/ticketing/2025-in-person" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://zeffy.com/en-US/ticketing/2025-in-person</a></p><br /><p><strong>时间轴：</strong></p><p>01:29 夏先生：大学期间用花呗，工作以后最多欠债五六万</p><p>02:35 毕业之后压力增大：两万元的就业培训班，租房开支</p><p>05:54 第一份工作工资5000元，在上海入不敷出</p><p>07:50 频繁找工作的几年里，无法摆脱网贷的生活状态是什么样的？</p><p>11:28 对未来抱有希望，只要找到稳定工作，贷款总能还清</p><p>15:14 不愿意求助家人，不能打破家里的期望</p><p>15:56 放弃征信：买房、结婚、生子的道路越来越远</p><p>18:09过去对征信毫无概念，平台额度给你一种有很多钱的错觉</p><p>20:00 邵先生：创业失败，中年返贫</p><p>22:19 创业之路：跨境电商、炒币、自媒体</p><p>24:14 2017年家庭收入走下坡路，2019年之后彻底走上赔钱的路</p><p>26:15 目前已有三个平台暴雷，焦虑来源看不到希望</p><p>27:29 37岁跑外卖，“不是不想工作，而是真的找不到工作”</p><p>31:27 两年间债务翻倍，为什么没有强制停贷？”我觉得我能翻身”</p><p>32:51 如何面对逾期催收？</p><p>39:29 找工作未果，担心过渡跑外卖变成长期现实</p><p>41:50 谢女士：从实习到工作，如何感到经济压力越来越大</p><p>45:30 2022年，在封控中辞职，失去稳定收入</p><p>46:35 媒体行业总是拖欠稿费，有时候等三四个月，甚至半年</p><p>47:51 借网贷的耻感，账单越糊涂，越不想面对</p><p>50:31 自我反思：年轻人被消费主义裹挟了吗？</p><p>52:31 社会经验是”经济下行，人应该储蓄”，但在封控中，年轻人只想活够今天</p><p>53:05 中美年轻人理财观念的差距</p><p>58:25 年轻人正在逐渐认清经济下行的现实</p><p>1:04:19 Victor：中国网贷发达的原因：资本成本很低，信用卡体系不发达</p><p>1:08:51 政府试图用消费贷提振消费，是合理的吗？</p><p>1:13:41 大量坏账对金融系统影响有限，但对个人生活、就业、心理健康是毁灭打击</p><br /><p>相关链接：<a href="https://bumingbai.net/2025/06/22/ep-156-jiecengguhua/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">EP-156 在阶层固化中挣扎的人们（上）</a></p><p><a href="https://bumingbai.net/2025/06/28/ep-157-jiecengguhua/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">EP-157 在阶层固化中挣扎的小镇做题家（下）</a></p><p><a href="https://bumingbai.net/2023/02/04/ep-35-victor-shih-on-local-debt/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">EP-035 Victor Shih：地方债会拖垮中国经济吗？</a></p><hr /><p style="color: grey; font-size: 0.75em;"> Hosted on Acast. See <a href="https://acast.com/privacy" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: grey;" target="_blank">acast.com/privacy</a> for more information.</p>

June 19th, an interactive game called "Gold Digger Game" was launched on Steam, quickly topping the Chinese bestseller list and sparking huge controversy. The game tells the story of a delivery driver who is emotionally deceived by a female anchor, goes bankrupt, and then makes a comeback for revenge. The plot alludes to well-known public events such as the Fat Cat case and the Zhai Xinxin case. The game resonated with a large number of male players and received high scores, with a positive review rate once reaching 96%. Many men used words like "revenge" and "dirge of Chinese men" to express their support for the game. Others said they bought the game to fight against "feminism." Why did the Gold Digger Game become so popular so quickly? Why do these men hate women? What social emotions are hidden behind "anti-emotional fraud"? Why are gender conflicts so intense in China today? In this episode, there are both real "misogynistic" voices from the male perspective and their real-world anxieties. I hope the audience will listen to this podcast with an understanding attitude. In addition, I also invited Li Sipan, a visiting scholar at Stanford University. Starting from the content of the game, she pointed out that betrothal gifts, misogyny, and male anger are not simply gender conflicts, but multiple structural problems under the lack of emotional education and insufficient social security. **Timeline:** Mr. Huang: 02:16 What kind of male emotional needs does the Gold Digger Game cater to? 05:51 Game plot: Delivery driver, female anchor, and gold digger organization 13:02 Involuntary celibate men: Thirst for women and misogyny 17:04 We shouldn't contribute our internet attention to the "Gold Digger Game" 21:35 Mr. Huang's view: Equal and diverse game content cannot be achieved by banning Mr. Xi: 25:13 The game is a weapon against "feminism" and gains cyber emotional value at the same time 27:45 The reason why Mr. Xi hates women: He has seen a lot of news about male interests being damaged 30:59 Datong engagement rape case, "Women's will overrides objective evidence"? 32:56 Mr. Xi in real life: 23 years old, never been in a relationship 36:19 "Be sure to pay attention to the distance between you and women" 40:42 Mr. Xi's struggle: Online arguments, resisting Yang Li and JD.com 43:26 Real-world anxiety: Living off parents, staying at home, "take it one step at a time" in the future Linda: 48:00 Linda's view on the Datong case: Rape is a crime, regardless of whether they are in a relationship, and men have not been well-informed about the law 50:00 What is a "free love, no betrothal gift" marriage like? 53:45 "(As a father) if you don't take care of your children, you are from the Qing Dynasty" 1:02:30 Domestic violence and murder walls, women also have deep fears Li Sipan: 01:06:22 The game setting also screens users - lacking interaction with women in real life 01:09:17 The real background of betrothal gift customs: Women are not necessarily the beneficiaries 01:13:22 Economic responsibility and emotional value 01:18:57 The game does not help men understand women, nor does it help men solve real-world problems 01:19:26 Reasons for the severity of gender antagonism 01:23:56 Other issues behind betrothal gifts: Lack of social security, workplace discrimination 01:27:36 Many predicaments are not caused by feminism, but by the lack of feminism Related cases mentioned in this podcast: [Su Xiangmao and Zhai Xinxin case](https://zh.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E8%8B%8F%E4%BA%AB%E8%8C%82%E8%87%AA%E6%9D%80%E4%BA%8B%E4%BB%B6) [Fat Cat case](https://zh.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E2%80%9C%E8%83%96%E7%8C%AB%E2%80%9D%E8%B7%B3%E6%B1%9F%E4%BA%8B%E4%BB%B6) [Datong engagement rape case in Shanxi](https://zh.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%B1%B1%E8%A5%BF%E5%A4%A7%E5%90%8C%E8%AE%A2%E5%A9%9A%E5%BC%BA%E5%A5%B8%E6%A1%88) Recommended reading: [Rape in the Bridal Chamber](https://news.ifeng.com/c/8igdftWaSHb) Hosted on Acast. See [acast.com/privacy](https://acast.com/privacy) for more information.

Original title: “捞女游戏”背后：这些男性为什么厌女？

Original description: <p>6月19日，一款名为“捞女游戏”的互动影游在steam平台上线，迅速登顶中国区热销榜，并引发巨大争议。游戏讲述一位外卖员被女主播情感欺骗，倾家荡产后逆袭复仇的故事。剧情影射了胖猫案翟欣欣案等公众熟知的事件。</p><br /><p>游戏得到了大量男性玩家的共鸣与高分评价，好评率一度达到96%。许多男性用“复仇”“中国男性的悲歌”这样的词语来表达对游戏的支持。还有人表示，他购买游戏是为了对抗“女拳”。</p><br /><p>捞女游戏为何能迅速爆红？这些男性为什么厌女？“情感反诈”背后，隐藏的是怎样的社会情绪？在今天的中国，性别矛盾为何如此激烈？</p><br /><p>本期节目里，既有来自男性视角的真实“厌女”声音，也有他们的现实焦虑，我希望观众朋友们能抱着了解的心态来收听这期播客。此外，我还邀请了斯坦福大学访问学者李思磐，她从游戏内容谈起，指出彩礼、仇女、男性愤怒并非简单的性别矛盾，而是情感教育缺失、社会保障不足下的多重结构性问题。</p><br /><p><strong>文字版</strong>：<a href="https://bit.ly/bmb-160-text" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://bit.ly/bmb-160-text</a></p><br /><p><strong>时间轴：</strong></p><p>黄先生：</p><p>02:16 捞女游戏迎合了什么样的男性情绪需求</p><p>05:51 游戏情节：外卖员、女主播与捞女组织</p><p>13:02 非自愿独身男性：渴女又厌女</p><p>17:04 对于“捞女游戏”，不应该贡献自己的互联网注意力</p><p>21:35 黄先生的观点：游戏内容的平等多元无法靠封禁达成</p><br /><p>Xi先生：</p><p>25:13 游戏是对抗“女拳”的武器，同时获得赛博情绪价值</p><p>27:45 xi先生厌女的原因：看了很多男性利益受损的新闻</p><p>30:59 大同订婚强奸案，“妇女意志压过了客观证据”？</p><p>32:56 现实里的xi先生：23岁，从来没有谈过恋爱</p><p>36:19 “一定要注意与女性的距离”</p><p>40:42 xi先生的斗争：网络对线，抵制杨笠和京东</p><p>43:26 现实焦虑：啃老、宅家、未来”走一步看一步“</p><br /><p>Linda:</p><p>48:00 Linda看大同案：强奸是犯罪，跟在不在关系里无关，男性未被很好普法</p><p>50:00 ”自由恋爱、没有彩礼“的婚姻是什么样的？</p><p>53:45 ”（作为爸爸）不带孩子，你就是从清朝过来的人“</p><p>1:02:30 家暴及被谋杀墙，女性同样也有很深的恐惧</p><br /><p>李思磐：</p><p>01:06:22 游戏设定也是筛选用户——在现实生活中跟女性缺乏互动</p><p>01:09:17 彩礼习俗的现实背景：女性并不一定是受益者</p><p>01:13:22 经济责任与情绪价值</p><p>01:18:57 游戏无助于男性了解女性，也无助于男性解决现实问题</p><p>01:19:26 性别对立问题严峻的原因</p><p>01:23:56 彩礼背后的其他问题：缺失的社会保障、职场歧视</p><p>01:27:36 许多困境不是女权主义造成的，而是缺乏女权主义造成的</p><br /><p>本期播客提到的相关案件：</p><p><a href="https://zh.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E8%8B%8F%E4%BA%AB%E8%8C%82%E8%87%AA%E6%9D%80%E4%BA%8B%E4%BB%B6" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">苏享茂与翟欣欣案</a></p><p><a href="https://zh.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E2%80%9C%E8%83%96%E7%8C%AB%E2%80%9D%E8%B7%B3%E6%B1%9F%E4%BA%8B%E4%BB%B6" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">胖猫案</a></p><p><a href="https://zh.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%B1%B1%E8%A5%BF%E5%A4%A7%E5%90%8C%E8%AE%A2%E5%A9%9A%E5%BC%BA%E5%A5%B8%E6%A1%88" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">山西大同订婚强奸案</a></p><p>推荐阅读：<a href="https://news.ifeng.com/c/8igdftWaSHb" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">《婚房里的强奸案》</a></p><hr /><p style="color: grey; font-size: 0.75em;"> Hosted on Acast. See <a href="https://acast.com/privacy" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: grey;" target="_blank">acast.com/privacy</a> for more information.</p>

"I have no enemies," Liu Xiaobo's final statement in court. On December 8, 2008, Liu Xiaobo was arrested in Beijing. Two days later, the "Charter 08" was released. He was sentenced to 11 years in prison for inciting subversion of state power. In 2010, he won the Nobel Peace Prize in prison. On July 13, 2017, he became the first Nobel laureate to die in custody since German journalist Carl von Ossietzky in 1938. Today is July 13, 2025, eight years since Liu Xiaobo's death. In today's Chinese context, the name of this Nobel laureate has long disappeared from public space and the Internet, and DeepSeek has also erased his existence. But he was the most watched academic star in China in the 1980s. On the evening of June 3, 1989, he stayed in Tiananmen Square and negotiated with the military and the government, so that the student protesters in Tiananmen Square avoided the bloodshed that occurred elsewhere in Beijing. Despite having many opportunities to go into exile abroad, he chose to stay in China and was imprisoned many times. In this episode, we invited the famous sinologist Perry Link. In 2023, Perry Link and Chinese scholar Wu Dazhi co-authored "I Have No Enemies: Liu Xiaobo's Life and Legacy." This book introduces Liu Xiaobo's personal experience and ideological evolution, and also outlines the complex picture of Chinese political thought and dissident movements in the past half century. We discussed with Perry Link about Liu Xiaobo in his eyes: How did a person who claimed to "have no enemies" challenge a highly adversarial political system? Is Liu Xiaobo's fate also a microcosm of the collective fate of Chinese liberal intellectuals? Can his political legacy still resonate in a high-pressure era? **Timeline:** 00:03 Who is Liu Xiaobo? 02:36 Perry Link's first impression of Liu Xiaobo: "Young, talkative, and impulsive" 06:11 Charter 08: The Chinese society expected by intellectuals 09:44 Liu Xiaobo's work before his arrest: editing Charter 08 and finding people to sign it 10:28 Recalling the process of translating Charter 08 16:23 Liu Xiaobo in Perry Link's eyes: independent thinking, "greedy reading", and strong self-criticism 22:08 Liu Xiaobo wins the Nobel Peace Prize, "This is the time" 24:01 Iconoclast, rebellious by nature, the storm of "China needs to be colonized for three hundred years" 30:29 How to understand Liu Xiaobo's saying "I have no enemies", is it a strategy? Moral declaration? Or political philosophy? 34:55 Is there still hope for non-violent democratic transition? "Openly lying flat" is also a kind of resistance 41:00 Liu Xiaobo once hoped that the Internet would spread ideas, but did the Internet eventually become a tool of the rulers? 44:50 The story of two stadiums: those executed by firing squad and Messi fans 48:23 "Liu Xiaobo Biography" does not avoid Liu Xiaobo's disgraceful past, including his infidelity to his ex-wife 54:59 If Liu Xiaobo were still alive, would he be a Trump fan? How does he view feminism and the metoo movement? 58:52 The missing final manuscript, "There must be his most precious and mature things" 01:00:35 After Liu Xiaobo, where are the new faces? 01:03:30 Why the Western world doesn't care about Liu Xiaobo, and talks emptily about the dangers of Chinese autocracy 01:10:35 Guest recommendation Guest Recommendations: Michael J. Klarman, "The Framers' Coup: The Making of the United States Constitution" Cha Jianying, "Trains: A Chinese Family History of Railway Journeys, Exile, and Survival" "Chai Jing Interviews Chinese Soldiers Fighting for Ukraine: 'My Heart Houses My Dead Brothers'" Related Links: Perry Link, Wu Dazhi, "I Have No Enemies: Liu Xiaobo's Life and Legacy" Liu Xiaobo: "I Have No Enemies - My Final Statement" Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Original title: 林培瑞：去世八年，刘晓波给我们留下了什么？

Original description: <p>“我没有敌人”，这是刘晓波在法庭上的最后陈述。2008年12月8日，刘晓波在北京被捕，两天后《零八宪章》发布，他被以煽动颠覆国家政权罪判处11年监禁，2010年他在狱中获得了诺贝尔和平奖，2017年7月13日，他成为自1938年德国记者卡尔·冯·奥西茨基(Carl von Ossietzky)以来，首位在羁押中去世的诺贝尔奖得主。</p><br /><p>今天是2025年7月13日，刘晓波去世已八年。在今天的中文语境中，这位诺奖得主的名字早已消失于公共空间和网络，DeepSeek也抹去了他的存在。但他曾是中国八十年代最受瞩目的学术明星，1989年6月3日晚上，他留在天安门广场，与军方和政府谈判，使天安门广场上的学生抗议者避免了在北京其他地方发生的流血事件。尽管有多次流亡海外的机会，他选择留在中国，并多次入狱。</p><br /><p>本期节目，我们邀请了著名汉学家林培瑞，2023年，林培瑞与笔名为吴大志（Wu Dazhi）的中国学者合写了《我没有敌人：刘晓波的生平与遗产》。这本书介绍了刘晓波的个人经历和思想演变，也同时勾勒出过去半个世纪中国政治思想与异议运动的复杂图景。</p><br /><p>我们和林培瑞讨论了他眼中的刘晓波：一个自称“没有敌人”的人，如何挑战了一个高度敌我划分的政治体制？刘晓波的命运是否也是中国自由派知识分子集体命运的缩影？他的政治遗产是否还可能在一个高压时代留下回响？</p><br /><p>文字版：<a href="https://bit.ly/bmb-159-text" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://bit.ly/bmb-159-text</a></p><br /><p><strong>时间轴：</strong></p><p>00:03 刘晓波是谁？</p><p>02:36 林培瑞对刘晓波的第一印象，“年纪小，话很多，性情很冲”</p><p>06:11 《零八宪章》：知识分子期望中的中国社会</p><p>09:44 刘晓波被捕前的工作：编辑《零八宪章》，找人签名</p><p>10:28 回忆翻译《零八宪章》的过程</p><p>16:23 林培瑞眼中的刘晓波：独立思考、“贪婪无度地读书”、自我批评能力强</p><p>22:08 刘晓波获得诺贝尔和平奖，“This is the time”</p><p>24:01 偶像破坏者、天性反叛的人，“中国需要被殖民三百年”言论风波</p><p>30:29 如何理解刘晓波说“我没有敌人”，是策略？道德宣言？还是政治哲学？</p><p>34:55 非暴力民主转型还有希望吗？“公开躺平的态度”也是一种反抗</p><p>41:00刘晓波曾寄希望互联网传播思想，但网络最终变成统治者的工具？</p><p>44:50 两个体育馆的故事：被枪决者与梅西球迷</p><p>48:23 “刘晓波传”没有回避刘晓波的不光彩往事，包括他对前妻的不忠</p><p>54:59 如果刘晓波还活着，他会是川粉吗？他如何看待女权和metoo运动？</p><p>58:52 下落不明的临终手稿，“肯定有他最宝贵最成熟的东西”</p><p>01:00:35刘晓波之后，新的面孔在哪里？</p><p>01:03:30 为什么西方世界不关心刘晓波，空谈中国专制的危险</p><p>01:10:35 嘉宾推荐</p><br /><p>嘉宾推荐：</p><p><a href="https://book.douban.com/subject/36428707/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">迈克尔·J.克拉曼《利益的天平——制宪者的“政变”与美国宪法的制定》</a></p><p><a href="https://www.chinafile.com/reporting-opinion/features/trains-chinese-family-history-of-railway-journeys-exile-and-survival" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">查建英《Trains: A Chinese Family History of Railway Journeys, Exile, and Survival》</a></p><p><a href="https://youtu.be/AhhQ3e8Re1k?feature=shared" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">《柴静对话为乌克兰作战的中国士兵：“我的心灵安置着我死去的弟兄”》</a></p><br /><p>相关链接：</p><p><a href="https://cup.columbia.edu/book/i-have-no-enemies/9780231216760/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">林培瑞、吴大志《我没有敌人：刘晓波的生平与遗产》</a></p><p><a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/uploads/2018/06/xiaobo-lecture_ch.pdf" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">刘晓波：我没有敌人——我的最后陈述</a></p><hr /><p style="color: grey; font-size: 0.75em;"> Hosted on Acast. See <a href="https://acast.com/privacy" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: grey;" target="_blank">acast.com/privacy</a> for more information.</p>

As a film directly confronting the pandemic and lockdowns, Lou Ye's "An Unfinished Film" understandably failed to be released in China and lacked a Douban entry. However, people still saw the film in overseas cinemas and in secretly circulated online drives. Director Lou Ye once said that a film exists because it is seen by the audience. Recently, we invited listeners to write down their feelings after watching the film. Many people mentioned forgetting, memories awakened by the film, and crying and silence while watching. The film stirred up so many complex, profound, and heavy emotions because many memories have not been properly preserved, and much history has not been properly treated. These letters are not only viewing emotions but also our collective response and testimony to the three years of the pandemic and the era of silence. Thank you to the listeners for their sincere letters. With their consent, we have for the first time attempted to use AI to generate the listeners' voices. There are minor spoilers in the letters. Text version: https://bit.ly/bmb-158-text Related links: The netizen mentioned in the intro: https://www.threads.com/@yuengkong/post/DFgSs4FzmsN?xmt=AQF08byyeGOJ8fSrEF0wts7Tsp50wRizZce8PJHhvSTB2w EP-001 Murong Xuecun: Voices from Wuhan: https://bumingbai.net/2022/05/27/ep-001-murong-xuecun/

Original title: 《一部未完成的电影》——观众的沉默与泪水

Original description: <p>作为一部直面疫情与封控的电影，娄烨导演的《一部未完成的电影》理所当然地未能在中国上映，也未能拥有豆瓣条目。但人们还是在海外的影院、在隐秘流传的网盘里看到了这部电影。</p><br /><p>娄烨导演曾说，电影因为观众看到得以存在。最近，我们邀请听众朋友们写下观影后的感受。许多人在来信中提到遗忘、被电影唤醒的记忆、观影时候的哭泣与沉默。电影牵动了如此多复杂、幽深、厚重的情绪，因为有很多的记忆没有被好好保存，很多历史没有被好好对待。这些来信不仅是观影的情绪，更是我们一起对疫情三年、对失语时代的回应与见证。</p><br /><p>谢谢听众们的真诚来信，在征得同意后，我们首次尝试了用AI生成听众的声音。来信里有少量剧透。</p><br /><p>文字版：<a href="https://bit.ly/bmb-158-text" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://bit.ly/bmb-158-text</a></p><br /><p>相关链接：</p><p>intro里提到的<a href="https://www.threads.com/@yuengkong/post/DFgSs4FzmsN?xmt=AQF08byyeGOJ8fSrEF0wts7Tsp50wRizZce8PJHhvSTB2w" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">网友</a></p><p><a href="https://bumingbai.net/2022/05/27/ep-001-murong-xuecun/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">EP-001 慕容雪村：武汉传来的声音</a></p><hr /><p style="color: grey; font-size: 0.75em;"> Hosted on Acast. See <a href="https://acast.com/privacy" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: grey;" target="_blank">acast.com/privacy</a> for more information.</p>

Since the 1980s, over 800 million Chinese people have been lifted out of poverty. Hundreds of millions have moved from rural areas to cities, and tens of millions have become the first college students in their families. For many, it was an era full of opportunities for upward mobility. However, in recent years, with the economic slowdown, this channel for upward mobility has become increasingly narrow. We asked our listeners to submit stories of "feeling anxious about class solidification." In the previous episode, we heard two middle-aged people share how their lives struggled with the ups and downs of the economic situation. The three narrators in this episode are all born in the 90s. Boris saved money after working for 6 years to study for a postgraduate degree in Hong Kong. He wanted to get rid of the regret of his first academic qualification, but found that he had to face a more difficult employment environment than when he graduated from undergraduate. Liang, a student studying for a doctorate in Japan, calls himself an extreme case of social mobility. Josh, who graduated from a 211 university, like many young people, feels confused about his major, work, and future. What are their stories? How did the "small-town exam takers" who once firmly believed in "education changes destiny" reinterpret this sentence in the process of growing up? How do they view their situation? How to redefine "effort" and "hope"? We also have to think about where society will go if a generation of young people lose hope for the future? In addition, almost all of the letters collected this time came from male listeners. In the future, we look forward to hearing more voices from women. Text version: [https://bit.ly/bmb-157-text](https://bit.ly/bmb-157-text) **Timeline:** 02:09 Boris's self-introduction: Graduated in 2016, went to Hong Kong for postgraduate studies after working for 6 years 02:27 Comparison of the job search environment faced by the two graduations 07:31 339 resumes were sent out, with a response rate of 13% 08:13 Encountered absurd questions in the interview: academic discrimination, family background questioning 09:11 The job search period lasted 9 months, and both money and confidence suffered a double blow 11:31 Boris, as the child of laid-off workers, worked part-time at university 13:28 Mom canceled the school's text message notification to save 3 yuan 18:59 Motivation to move up: verbal stimulation from relatives, self-esteem, disappointment with vocational education 23:24 Believes he has benefited from gender and economic dividends, pessimistic about the future 27:45 Liang: "If you want to know where the limit of small-town exam takers is" 28:02 Born in a western state-owned enterprise family, felt increasingly strong class gap from elementary school to university 32:52 Entering university, the biggest challenge is "not knowing what to do" 35:22 Feels obvious unfairness, but is very proud of his achievements 36:58 Tutoring, distributing flyers, "doing whatever he can", graduated from university and saved money to go to Japan 39:54 Received an offer from Columbia University, was scared off by the high tuition fees, and chose to stay in Japan 41:25 Considers himself an extreme case of social mobility, and hardly contacts his elementary school classmates anymore 42:46 Self-taught Japanese, extremely low consumption, living an ascetic life 44:09 Future choice to stay in Japan 46:24 Josh: Born in a rural area in the south, his parents are migrant workers, and he started participating in family labor in childhood 48:01 Disappointment after going to university: utilitarian atmosphere, dislike of major 48:53 The first job only lasted half a year, resigned to take the postgraduate entrance examination 50:42 Father tried to spend money to ask for favors to find him a job 52:05 Spent 20,000 yuan to sign up for a re-employment training class 54:13 Found a new job, but resigned again soon due to "high pressure" 01:02:16 Started feeling the gap from student days, high school classmates had early access to the external network and learned programming 01:03:22 Being a civil servant, doing business, joining a big company, it is difficult to turn over no matter what you do 01:05:54 Josh's imagination of the future: unwilling to marry and have children in the future Related links: [https://bumingbai.net/2025/06/22/ep-156-jiecengguhua/](https://bumingbai.net/2025/06/22/ep-156-jiecengguhua/) [https://bumingbai.net/2024/09/28/ep-115-jiuye/](https://bumingbai.net/2024/09/28/ep-115-jiuye/) Hosted on Acast. See [acast.com/privacy](https://acast.com/privacy) for more information.

Original title: 在阶层固化中挣扎的小镇做题家（下）

Original description: <p>上世纪80年代以来，超过8亿中国人摆脱了贫困。几亿人从农村搬进了城市，数以千万计的人成为家里的第一个大学生。对于不少人来说，那是一个充满上升通道的时代。但近几年，随着经济放缓，这种向上流动的通道越来越窄。</p><br /><p>我们向听众征集了“对阶层固化感到焦虑”的故事。上一期节目里，我们听到了两位中年人分享了他们的人生如何随着经济形势起伏而苦苦挣扎。</p><br /><p>这一期节目里的三位讲述者都是90后，Boris在工作6年之后攒钱去香港念研究生，他想摆脱第一学历的遗憾，却发现要面对比本科毕业时更艰难的就业环境；在日本念博士的梁同学自称社会流动里的极端个案；毕业于211大学的Josh和许多年轻人一样，对专业、工作和未来都感到迷茫。</p><br /><p>他们的故事是怎么样的？曾经笃行的“教育改变命运”的小镇做题家们，如何在成长过程中重新理解了这句话？他们怎么看待自己的处境？如何重新定义“努力”与“希望”？我们也不得不思考，如果一代年轻人都对未来失去希望，社会会走向何方？</p><br /><p>另外，这一次征集的来信几乎全部来自男性听众。未来，我们期待能听到更多女性的声音。</p><br /><p>文字版：<a href="https://bit.ly/bmb-157-text" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://bit.ly/bmb-157-text</a></p><br /><p><strong>时间轴：</strong></p><p>02:09 Boris的自我介绍：2016年毕业，工作6年后赴港读研</p><p>02:27 两次毕业所面临的求职环境对比</p><p>07:31 海投了339份简历，响应率13%</p><p>08:13 面试中遇到荒诞问题：学历歧视、家庭背景盘问</p><p>09:11 求职期长达9个月，金钱信心遭受双重打击</p><p>11:31 Boris作为下岗工人子女，大学勤工俭学</p><p>13:28 妈妈为了省下3块钱，取消了学校短信通知</p><p>18:59 向上走的动力：亲人言语刺激、自尊心、对职业教育的失望</p><p>23:24 自认吃到了性别红利和经济红利，对未来悲观</p><br /><p>27:45 梁同学： “如果你想知道小镇做题家的极限在哪里”</p><p>28:02 出生于西部国企家庭，从小学到大学，感受到逐渐强烈的阶级落差</p><p>32:52 进入大学，最大的挑战是“不知道做什么”</p><p>35:22 感受到明显的不公平，但很为自己取得的成绩感到自豪</p><p>36:58 做家教、发传单、“有什么做什么”，大学毕业，自己攒钱去日本</p><p>39:54 拿到哥伦比亚大学offer，被高昂学费吓退，选择留在日本</p><p>41:25 自认为是社会流动中的极端个案，和小学同学几乎不再联系</p><p>42:46 自学日语、极低消费，过苦行僧式的生活</p><p>44:09 未来选择留在日本</p><br /><p>46:24 Josh：南方农村出生，父母是农民工，童年开始参与家庭劳动</p><p>48:01 上大学后的失落：功利氛围，不喜欢专业</p><p>48:53 第一份工作只做了半年，辞职考研</p><p>50:42 父亲试图花钱托关系为他找工作</p><p>52:05 花费2万元报名再就业培训班</p><p>54:13 重新找工作，因“高压”很快再离职</p><p>01:02:16 从学生时代开始感受差距，高中同学早早接触外网、学习编程</p><p>01:03:22 做公务员、做生意、进大公司，无论做什么都很难再翻身</p><p>01:05:54 Josh对未来的想象：未来不愿意结婚生子</p><br /><p>相关链接：</p><p><a href="https://bumingbai.net/2025/06/22/ep-156-jiecengguhua/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">EP-156 在阶层固化中挣扎的人们（上）</a></p><p><a href="https://bumingbai.net/2024/09/28/ep-115-jiuye/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">EP-115 中国高校就业数据如何造假？</a></p><hr /><p style="color: grey; font-size: 0.75em;"> Hosted on Acast. See <a href="https://acast.com/privacy" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: grey;" target="_blank">acast.com/privacy</a> for more information.</p>

We recently solicited stories from listeners about "feeling anxious about class solidification" and received many letters. This episode is the first, with guests Mr. Zhao, 38, and Mr. Liu, who is almost 50. They, who did not attend university, experienced a little of the economic boom at different stages when they were young. However, after the epidemic, the overall social economy has been in a slump, the real estate industry has been in turmoil, the labor market has been sluggish, and especially the jobs for older workers have decreased, and they have all begun to feel a sense of stagnation or even regression. Mr. Zhao is from a rural area in Shanxi. He used to be an underground miner. Later, he drifted north and worked as an extra, real estate agent, and loan business in Beijing. He used to have a considerable monthly income, but in the past two years, his income has been almost zero due to the decline of the industry. Mr. Liu used to work in engineering construction in a large state-owned enterprise in Northeast China. He personally experienced the wave of layoffs in the 1990s, and later worked all over the country. At nearly 50 years old, he faces a life of being owed wages, difficulty finding work, and no place to retire. In this episode, we will hear the stories of ordinary workers and their different feelings about "social mobility" and "class solidification." Text version: https://bit.ly/bmb-156-text Timeline: 01:34 Mr. Zhao is from a rural area in Shanxi, and his father is a coal miner in a black coal mine. 02:32 The first job at the age of 18, a gas worker in a coal mine, with a harsh underground environment 06:24 Resigned and drifted north, going to Beijing with a performance dream 07:21 Studied acting at the Central Academy of Drama and worked as an extra 09:08 Switched to being a real estate agent, "feeling very decent to make money" 11:18 Switched to being a loan agent, earning 100,000 yuan a month at its peak 12:28 After 2024, business decreased and income plummeted 14:19 Considered delivering food and returning to work in coal mines 15:41 "Unable to rise, and difficult to sink" 18:35 If there are children, I hope they have a good environment and a good personality. 21:10 Thinking about whether to leave Beijing 22:24 Mr. Liu: Writing from a hot rental house 23:32 When he was young, he was an employee of a state-owned enterprise. He originally hoped to live a stable life in the state-owned enterprise until retirement. 24:42 Laid off from state-owned enterprises, went out to work 26:17 During the epidemic, the project was suspended and he lay flat at home for a year. 28:03 Comparing the "layoff wave" with the present: I was confident in finding a job back then, but now I am more pessimistic. 29:27 Employment deteriorated after the epidemic, "feeling of powerlessness" 31:32 Expectations for children: "In short, if you want to be a beast of burden, it is better to be a beast of burden abroad." 39:21 Owed five months of wages, no savings, and no place to retire Related links: EP-115 How is China's college employment data falsified? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Original title: 在阶层固化中挣扎的人们（上）

Original description: <p>&nbsp;最近我们向听众征集“对阶级固化感到焦虑”的故事，收到了许多来信。本期节目是第一期，嘉宾分别是38岁的赵先生和即将50岁的刘先生。没有上过大学的他们，年轻时曾在不同阶段感受过一点点经济上行期的红利。但疫情之后，整体社会经济一蹶不振，房地产暴雷，劳动市场萎靡，尤其是面向大龄劳动者的工作变少，他们都开始感到一种停滞甚至倒退。</p><br /><p>赵先生来自山西农村，曾做过井下矿工，之后北漂，在北京做过群众演员、房地产中介、贷款行业，曾月入可观，但近两年因行业衰退几乎没有收入。刘先生早年在东北大型国企做工程建设，亲历过90年代下岗潮，后来一直在全国各地辗转打工。快50岁的他面对着被欠薪、工作难找和养老无着落的人生。</p><br /><p>在这期节目里，我们会听到普通劳动者的故事以及他们对“社会流动”与“阶层固化”的不同感受。</p><br /><p>文字版：<a href="https://bit.ly/bmb-156-text" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://bit.ly/bmb-156-text</a></p><br /><p><strong>时间轴：</strong></p><p>01:34 赵先生来自山西农村，父亲是黑煤窑矿工</p><p>02:32 18岁的第一份工作，煤矿瓦斯工，下井环境恶劣</p><p>06:24 辞职北漂，带着表演梦去北京</p><p>07:21 在中戏学表演，做过群众演员</p><p>09:08 转行做房地产中介，“感觉挣钱非常体面”</p><p>11:18 转行做贷款中介，辉煌时月入十万</p><p>12:28 2024年之后业务减少，收入骤减</p><p>14:19 考虑过送外卖、回煤矿工作</p><p>15:41 “无法跃升，也难以沉下去”</p><p>18:35 如果有孩子，希望有好的环境，塑造好的人格</p><p>21:10 思考是否要离开北京</p><p>22:24 刘先生：在高温的出租房里来信</p><p>23:32 年轻时是国企员工，原本希望在国企稳定生活直到退休</p><p>24:42 国企下岗分流，外出打工</p><p>26:17 疫情期间项目停工，回家躺平了一年</p><p>28:03 对比“下岗潮”与现在时：当年还有信心找工作，现在更悲观</p><p>29:27 疫情后就业恶化，“无力感”</p><p>31:32 给孩子的期望：“总之要做牛马，不如去国外做牛马”</p><p>39:21 被欠薪五个月，没有积蓄，养老无着落</p><br /><p>相关链接：</p><p><a href="https://bumingbai.net/2024/09/28/ep-115-jiuye/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">EP-115 中国高校就业数据如何造假？</a></p><hr /><p style="color: grey; font-size: 0.75em;"> Hosted on Acast. See <a href="https://acast.com/privacy" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: grey;" target="_blank">acast.com/privacy</a> for more information.</p>

中国官方一直在塑造这样一种希望：中国制造的“新三样”——电动汽车、锂电池和太阳能电池，正在成为拉动中国经济的新引擎。今年，国产大语言模型 DeepSeek 横空出世，让很多人重新找回了一种民族科技和文化的信心。 另一个中国里，却是截然不同的景象：欠薪事件频发，失业问题严重，消费疲软，社会保障不足，地方债务危机加重，年轻人因失去希望而不愿结婚生子…… 为什么“两个中国”同时存在？技术突破和产业升级，为什么没有变成普通人的“好日子”？本期节目，袁莉和李厚辰一起谈论，为什么“新三样”和AI救不了中国经济？ 李厚辰是「翻转电台」和 YouTube频道「世界苦茶」的主持人，也是一位时事和经济分析专栏作家，他带来了他对中国经济现象的分析和观察，例如科创表面蓬勃，背后却是风投和民间投资的逐年萎靡；华为等大公司总是为了“国家安全”在重复发明；被誉为希望的电动汽车产业实际上饱受价格战和产能过剩之累……袁莉则带来她常年对科技和商业领域的采访观察。欢迎收听本期节目。 **文字版：**https://bit.ly/bmb-155-text **时间轴：** 01:57 “中国的经济就像吃了兴奋剂的人”，局部繁荣难以掩盖系统性萧条 06:56 中国经济中的资源如何错配？ 08:29 合肥模式与产业投资泡沫 11:38 风投行业这么萎靡，这么多初创企业从哪儿来的？ 14:48 大公司科创困境：为了国家安全重复发明“轮子” 20:46 中国企业“战术上勤奋，战略上懒惰”？ 22:35 价格战 、产能过剩、毛利降低：电动车行业即将暴雷？ 28:31 新三样在国际贸易中真的那么如鱼得水吗？ 33:52 为什么新质生产力无法拯救经济疲软？ 35:31 出口补贴越高，财政税收拖累越严重 38:30 “比亚迪过去五年净利润940亿，从政府拿了860亿现金补贴” 41:32 新质生产力靠国家巨额补贴推动，并非市场行为 42:49 AI提升生产力的同时也制造更多失业 48:46 为什么中国政府如此痴迷新质生产力？ 57:23 嘉宾推荐 嘉宾推荐： 黄道炫《铁水流：战时中共革命系统的运作（1937-1945）》 《台灣地方政治讀本: 來自青年世代的提問、實踐與反思》 Harukata Takenaka《Failed Democratization in Prewar Japan》 相关链接： EP-132 李厚辰：2015、2016——改变中国的两年 YouTube频道：FearNation世界苦茶

Original title: 李厚辰：为什么“新三样”和AI救不了中国经济？

Original description: <p>中国官方一直在塑造这样一种希望：中国制造的“新三样”——电动汽车、锂电池和太阳能电池，正在成为拉动中国经济的新引擎。今年，国产大语言模型 DeepSeek 横空出世，让很多人重新找回了一种民族科技和文化的信心。</p><br /><p>另一个中国里，却是截然不同的景象：欠薪事件频发，失业问题严重，消费疲软，社会保障不足，地方债务危机加重，年轻人因失去希望而不愿结婚生子……</p><br /><p>为什么“两个中国”同时存在？技术突破和产业升级，为什么没有变成普通人的“好日子”？本期节目，袁莉和李厚辰一起谈论，为什么“新三样”和AI救不了中国经济？</p><br /><p>李厚辰是「翻转电台」和 YouTube频道「世界苦茶」的主持人，也是一位时事和经济分析专栏作家，他带来了他对中国经济现象的分析和观察，例如科创表面蓬勃，背后却是风投和民间投资的逐年萎靡；华为等大公司总是为了“国家安全”在重复发明；被誉为希望的电动汽车产业实际上饱受价格战和产能过剩之累……袁莉则带来她常年对科技和商业领域的采访观察。欢迎收听本期节目。</p><br /><p><strong>文字版：</strong><a href="https://bit.ly/bmb-155-text" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://bit.ly/bmb-155-text</a></p><br /><p><strong>时间轴：</strong></p><br /><p>01:57 “中国的经济就像吃了兴奋剂的人”，局部繁荣难以掩盖系统性萧条</p><p>06:56 中国经济中的资源如何错配？</p><p>08:29 合肥模式与产业投资泡沫</p><p>11:38 风投行业这么萎靡，这么多初创企业从哪儿来的？</p><p>14:48 大公司科创困境：为了国家安全重复发明“轮子”</p><p>20:46 中国企业“战术上勤奋，战略上懒惰”？</p><p>22:35 价格战 、产能过剩、毛利降低：电动车行业即将暴雷？</p><p>28:31 新三样在国际贸易中真的那么如鱼得水吗？</p><p>33:52 为什么新质生产力无法拯救经济疲软？</p><p>35:31 出口补贴越高，财政税收拖累越严重</p><p>38:30 “比亚迪过去五年净利润940亿，从政府拿了860亿现金补贴”</p><p>41:32 新质生产力靠国家巨额补贴推动，并非市场行为</p><p>42:49 AI提升生产力的同时也制造更多失业</p><p>48:46 为什么中国政府如此痴迷新质生产力？</p><p>57:23 嘉宾推荐</p><br /><p>嘉宾推荐：</p><p><a href="https://www.amazon.co.jp/-/en/%E9%BB%83%E9%81%93%E7%82%AB/dp/988237316X" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">黄道炫《铁水流：战时中共革命系统的运作（1937-1945）》</a></p><p><a href="https://www.amazon.com/-/zh_TW/%E5%9A%B4%E5%A9%89%E7%8E%B2-ebook/dp/B0CF144NZL" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">《台灣地方政治讀本: 來自青年世代的提問、實踐與反思》</a></p><p><a href="https://www.sup.org/books/politics/failed-democratization-prewar-japan" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Harukata Takenaka《Failed Democratization in Prewar Japan》</a></p><br /><p>相关链接：</p><p><a href="https://bumingbai.net/2025/01/18/ep-132-lihouchen/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">EP-132 李厚辰：2015、2016——改变中国的两年</a></p><p><a href="http://www.youtube.com/@flipradio_fearnation" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">YouTube频道：FearNation世界苦茶</a></p><hr /><p style="color: grey; font-size: 0.75em;"> Hosted on Acast. See <a href="https://acast.com/privacy" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: grey;" target="_blank">acast.com/privacy</a> for more information.</p>

In 2020, Professor Michael Berry of UCLA became the target of online attacks for translating "Wuhan Diary." The cyberbullying lasted for nearly three years, and he even frequently received death threats. Writer Fang Fang also suffered heavy losses. Her works cannot be published or reprinted, and even her name has almost disappeared from public space. Against this background, Michael Berry picked up Fang Fang's two novel manuscripts again. "Soft Burial" tells the story of individual destiny in the devastating land reform movement, and "The Running Flame" depicts the story of a rural woman resisting domestic violence. This year, these two works were finally published in the English-speaking world. In this podcast, Professor Michael Berry will talk to us about the process of translating these two works and the impact of cyberbullying. Michael Berry lists "Wuhan Diary," "Soft Burial," and "The Running Flame" as his "trauma trilogy": how do land reform, the epidemic, and domestic violence bring trauma to ordinary people and affect their lives? How should people deal with and face historical trauma? Do we still have the ability and opportunity to tell these historical traumas? Welcome to listen to this podcast. **Text version**: [https://bit.ly/bmb-154-text](https://bit.ly/bmb-154-text) **Timeline:** 01:38 Recalling the online violence after the publication of "Wuhan Diary": spy rumors, political cartoons, death threats 07:12 Fang Fang went from "People's Hero" to "Public Enemy": how the object of criticism was reversed overnight 11:59 Is there an organization behind the reversal of public opinion? 14:15 "Handing over the knife" becomes a watershed in the public space of public opinion 19:04 Hoping Fang Fang to take back the "writing" weapon: she was almost "banned" after the cyberbullying 23:33 Michael Berry's "trauma trilogy" 31:22 Facing historical trauma: the choice of novel characters 34:17 Teaching students to "dare to speak" for many years, but now I can only ask them to "protect themselves wisely" 40:06 The era of drawer literature 44:30 Talking about "The Running Flame": how to let Western readers understand the story of Chinese rural women 45:35 Challenges beyond censorship: fewer and fewer readers of novels in the fragmented era 46:06 Will the translator who once spent 15 years translating experimental novels worry about AI? 50:05 The process of getting out of cyberbullying is difficult, but the feelings for ordinary Chinese people have never changed 53:54 Guest recommendation Guest recommendation: [Movie "Ash is Purest White" Jia Zhangke/Wan Jiahuan](https://movie.douban.com/subject/36289263/) ["Crocodile" Mo Yan](https://book.douban.com/subject/36398795/) Related links: ["Soft Burial"](https://cup.columbia.edu/book/soft-burial/9780231214995/) ["The Running Flame"](https://cup.columbia.edu/book/the-running-flame/9780231215015/) Hosted on Acast. See [acast.com/privacy](https://acast.com/privacy) for more information.

Original title: 白睿文：从方方日记到《软埋》，为历史还个公道

Original description: <p>2020年，因为翻译《武汉日记》，加州大学洛杉矶分校的白睿文（Michael Berry）教授成为网络攻击的对象。网暴持续了将近三年，他甚至经常收到死亡威胁。作家方方同样遭受重创。她的作品无法出版、再版，连她的名字都几乎从公共空间消失。</p><br /><p>在这样的背景下，白睿文重新拾起方方的两部小说译稿。《软埋》讲述在灭绝人寰的土改运动中个人的命运，《奔跑的火光》描写一位农村女性反抗家暴的故事。今年，这两部作品终于在英文世界出版。</p><br /><p>这一期播客，白睿文教授来跟我们讲述他翻译这两部作品的过程，以及网暴带来的冲击。白睿文将《武汉日记》《软埋》和《奔跑的火光》列为他心目中的“创伤三部曲”：土地改革、疫情、家暴，不同的事件如何给普通人带来创伤，并影响他们的一生？人们又应该如何处理和面对历史创伤？我们是否还有能力和机会讲出这些历史创伤？欢迎收听本期播客。</p><br /><p><strong>文字版</strong>：<a href="https://bit.ly/bmb-154-text" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://bit.ly/bmb-154-text</a></p><br /><p><strong>时间轴：</strong></p><br /><p>01:38 回忆《武汉日记》出版后遭遇的网络暴力：间谍谣言、政治漫画、死亡威胁</p><p>07:12 方方从“人民英雄”变成“大家的公敌”：批评对象如何在一夜之间被调转</p><p>11:59 舆论调转背后是否有组织？</p><p>14:15 “递刀子”成为舆论公共空间的分水岭</p><p>19:04 希望方方拿回”写作“武器：网暴后她几乎被“封杀”</p><p>23:33 白睿文心目中的“创伤三部曲”</p><p>31:22 面对历史创伤：小说人物的选择</p><p>34:17 多年来教学生“敢讲”，眼下却只能请他们“明哲保身”</p><p>40:06 抽屉文学的时代</p><p>44:30 谈《奔跑的火光》：如何让西方读者理解中国农村女性的故事</p><p>45:35 审查之外的挑战：长篇小说的读者在碎片化时代里越来越少</p><p>46:06 曾经花费15年翻译实验性小说的译者，会担心AI吗？</p><p>50:05 走出网暴的过程很艰难，但对普通中国人的情感始终没有变</p><p>53:54 嘉宾推荐</p><br /><p>嘉宾推荐：</p><p><a href="https://movie.douban.com/subject/36289263/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">电影《风流一代》贾樟柯/万佳欢</a></p><p><a href="https://book.douban.com/subject/36398795/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">《鳄鱼》莫言</a></p><br /><p>相关链接：</p><p><a href="https://cup.columbia.edu/book/soft-burial/9780231214995/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">《Soft Burial》（《软埋》</a></p><p><a href="https://cup.columbia.edu/book/the-running-flame/9780231215015/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">《The Running Flame》（《奔跑的火光》）</a></p><hr /><p style="color: grey; font-size: 0.75em;"> Hosted on Acast. See <a href="https://acast.com/privacy" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: grey;" target="_blank">acast.com/privacy</a> for more information.</p>

Why would a person who has suffered torment and hardship remain loyal to the party that caused them immense suffering? This may be one of the core issues in understanding Chinese politics. Joseph Torigian, Associate Professor at American University, describes the ups and downs of Xi Zhongxun's life in his forthcoming book, "The Party's Interests Come First," through detailed historical materials. Xi Zhongxun is not only Xi Jinping's father, but also one of the most complex and tragic representatives of the CCP elders. Writing and understanding a complex communist figure is undoubtedly very difficult. How does Tang Zhixue find important clues from the vast and opaque historical materials of the party? How to judge and select these materials? Tang Zhixue also talked about the responsibility and significance of being a historian. The purpose of writing this book is not to judge whether Xi Zhongxun is "good" or "bad", but to tell what kind of system this person lives in? How does this system shape and devour individuals? Perhaps many listeners are more concerned about: Can understanding Xi Zhongxun's life help understand Xi Jinping's ruling logic? Why did Xi Jinping become who he is today? How do historical, family, and personal factors shape him? Is the path he takes an inheritance or betrayal of his father, Xi Zhongxun? Where will he take China? Welcome to listen to this podcast. Text version: https://bit.ly/bmb-153-text Timeline: 03:51 Why did Tang Zhixue write "Biography of Xi Zhongxun"? 07:36 How to select historical materials and the precious experience of interviewing the Dalai Lama 11:26 The Yan'an Rectification Movement and Xi Zhongxun's "absurd and terrifying" actions 15:03 Why was Xi Zhongxun promoted so quickly? 17:17 In united front work, true friendship VS political friendship 21:19 Why does Xi Zhongxun always end up on the leftist or tough line? 24:52 Why do CCP leaders implement bad policies to please Mao Zedong? 28:17 One of Xi Zhongxun's tragic moments: the publication of the anti-party novel "Liu Zhidan" 31:26 Xi Zhongxun's mental state: constant crying 33:13 How did Xi Zhongxun educate Xi Jinping? 38:35 Xi Zhongxun said that Xi Jinping is the material to be a premier 39:58 What role did Xi Zhongxun play in Xi Jinping's career? 44:58 Why didn't Xi Jinping grow into a reformer? 48:33 How to understand the many labels on Xi Zhongxun? 51:38 When did Xi Jinping become Xi Jinping? 55:38 Xi Jinping's worldview: succession politics and self-revolution 01:05:26 Guest recommendation Tang Zhixue #Guest recommendation: Hipsters Zhong Yanlin: Peng Zhen: Mao Zedong's "Close Comrade-in-Arms" (1941-1966) Jiang Guangci: The Wandering Youth Related podcast links: EP-033 Joseph Torigian: The End and Succession of Dictators EP116-Cai Xia: Can Xi Jinping restore Mao-style socialism? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Original title: 唐志学：习近平何以成为习近平，习仲勋传里有答案吗？

Original description: <p>为什么一个受尽折磨和苦难的人仍然会衷心于给他带来巨大苦难的党？这也许是理解中国政治的核心问题之一。美利坚大学副教授唐志学Joseph Torigian在即将出版的新书《The Party’s Interests Come First》（党的利益在第一位）中通过翔实的史料描写了习仲勋跌宕起伏的一生。</p><br /><p>习仲勋不仅是习近平的父亲，也是中共元老中最复杂、最悲剧的代表之一。书写和理解一个复杂的共产党人物，无疑是非常困难的，唐志学如何从庞杂的、并不透明的党史资料中找到重要的线头？如何判断和选取这些资料？唐志学也谈到作为历史学家的责任和意义，他写这本书，目的并不在于判断习仲勋是“好”是“坏”，而是讲述这个人究竟生活在一个什么样的体制里？这个体制又是如何塑造和吞噬个人的？</p><br /><p>也许许多听众更关心的是：理解习仲勋的一生，可以理解习近平的执政逻辑吗？习近平为何会成为今天的习近平，历史、家庭和个人的因素如何塑造他？他所走的路，是对父亲习仲勋的继承还是背叛？他会将中国推向何方？欢迎收听本期播客。</p><br /><p>文字版：<a href="https://bit.ly/bmb-153-text" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://bit.ly/bmb-153-text</a></p><br /><p><strong>时间轴：</strong></p><p>03:51 为什么唐志学要写“习仲勋传”</p><p>07:36 如何选取史料、采访达赖喇嘛的珍贵经历</p><p>11:26 延安整风运动与习仲勋“荒诞又恐怖”的作为</p><p>15:03 习仲勋为什么被提拔得这么快？</p><p>17:17 统战工作中，真实的友谊VS政治的友谊</p><p>21:19 习仲勋为何总在最后走到左倾或强硬的路线之中？</p><p>24:52 中共领导人为什么要为了讨好毛泽东而实施糟糕的政策?</p><p>28:17 习仲勋的悲剧时刻之一：反党小说《刘志丹》的出版</p><p>31:26 习仲勋的精神状态：常年的哭声</p><p>33:13 习仲勋如何教育习近平？</p><p>38:35 习仲勋说，习近平是做总理的料</p><p>39:58 习仲勋在习近平的仕途中发挥了什么作用？</p><p>44:58 习近平为何没有成长为一个改革派？</p><p>48:33 如何理解习仲勋身上的诸多标签？</p><p>51:38 习近平何时变成习近平？</p><p>55:38 习近平的世界观：接班政治与自我革命</p><p>01:05:26 嘉宾推荐</p><br /><p>唐志学 #嘉宾推荐：</p><p><a href="https://movie.douban.com/subject/3260445/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">《潮爆莫斯科》（Hipsters）</a></p><p><a href="https://bit.ly/43RxiIF" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">钟延麟：《彭真：毛泽东的“亲密战友”（1941-1966）》</a></p><p><a href="https://book.douban.com/subject/35439520/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">蒋光慈：《少年漂泊者》</a></p><br /><p>相关播客链接：</p><p><a href="https://bumingbai.net/2023/01/14/ep-033-joseph-torigian/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">EP-033 唐志学：独裁者的终局与继承</a></p><p><a href="https://bumingbai.net/2024/10/12/ep-116-caixia/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">EP116-蔡霞：习近平能否复辟毛式社会主义？</a></p><hr /><p style="color: grey; font-size: 0.75em;"> Hosted on Acast. See <a href="https://acast.com/privacy" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: grey;" target="_blank">acast.com/privacy</a> for more information.</p>

Today is May 27th, Unclear Podcast's third anniversary! Recently, we solicited letters from listeners, hoping everyone would write down the most painful and happiest things of the past three years, the biggest changes in life, and stories with Unclear Podcast. We received letters from all over the world, bringing everyone's migration trajectories and changes in mood. Thank you for reviewing the past hundred-plus episodes and everything we've experienced together over the past three years, from the Shanghai lockdown three years ago to this moment. These experiences are the most inseparable part of us and this country, and at different moments, they have pushed us to different places. Thank you to every listener for the past three years, and we hope we can go through many more third anniversaries together! Text version: https://bit.ly/bmb-152-text

Original title: 三周年特别节目：和袁莉一起读信！

Original description: <p>今天是5月27日，不明白播客开播三周年啦！前阵子，我们征集了听众的来信，希望大家写下过去三年最痛苦和最快乐的事情、生活中最大的变化以及和不明白播客的故事。</p><br /><p>我们收到了从世界各地来的信件，也带来大家迁徙的轨迹和心境的变化。谢谢大家一起回顾了过去的一百多期节目和三年共同经历的一切，从三年前的上海封控到此刻，这些经历是我们和这个国家最不可分割的一部分，也在不同的时刻，把我们推向了不同的地方。</p><br /><p>感谢三年来的每一位听众，希望我们还能一起走过很多个三周年！</p><br /><p>文字版：<a href="https://bit.ly/bmb-152-text" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://bit.ly/bmb-152-text&nbsp;</a></p><hr /><p style="color: grey; font-size: 0.75em;"> Hosted on Acast. See <a href="https://acast.com/privacy" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: grey;" target="_blank">acast.com/privacy</a> for more information.</p>

In mid-May, negotiations between the United States and China in Geneva paused a chaotic and intense trade war that had lasted for more than a month. However, this does not mean that the shadow of the economic crisis has receded.Two years ago, Professor Victor Shih of the University of California, San Diego, pointed out China's local debt crisis in our program. Two years later, is China's local debt problem more serious? With exports, a driving force for economic growth, potentially facing a decline, how will the trade war further affect China's central and local finances? Could the trade war trigger a financial crisis in China?Victor Shih also shared in the program the "accounting games" China is currently using to deal with local debt problems, what preparations the Chinese government made before the new round of trade war, and how he views the relationship between the winners and losers of the trade war at the national level and ordinary people. Welcome to listen to this episode.Text version: https://bit.ly/bmb-151-textTimeline:01:58 Victor Shih comments on the first round of the Sino-US trade war05:09 How does the Chinese government deal with corporate bankruptcies and large-scale unemployment caused by the trade war?07:14 The impact of current tariff levels on China's GDP growth10:17 "Fiscal pressure may be the only pressure the trade war puts on the Chinese government"14:47 Will fiscal pressure affect the stability maintenance capabilities of local governments?15:33 Two years later, what are the overall changes in the situation of local debt?18:13 After the trade war, which provinces in China are likely to have a more serious debt crisis?23:24 Does the Chinese government tacitly approve the decline of traditional service industries and only care about AI?25:22 The relationship between China's local debt problem and ordinary people30:43 What is the logic of the CCP's economic policy?33:12 The dual challenges of weak domestic demand and higher tariffs36:43 Will the trade war be a long-term situation?41:28 When China's economic data becomes increasingly opaque, how do economists judge?46:17 Guest recommendationsGuest recommendations:Film "Conclave" by Edward Berger"Rejuvenating Communism" by Jérôme Doyon"THE IMPACT OF U.S.-CHINA TENSIONS ON U.S. SCIENCE"Related links:EP-035 Victor Shih: Will Local Debt Drag Down the Chinese Economy?EP-149 Xu Chenggang: Where Will the Sino-US Trade War Go?"A 10 Trillion RMB Accounting Exercise" Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Original title: Victor Shih：贸易战会引发中国的财政危机吗？

Original description: <p>5月中旬，中美两国在日内瓦的谈判，为一个多月来混乱、激烈的贸易战按下暂停键。但这并不意味着经济危机的阴影已经远去。</p><br /><p>两年前，加州大学圣地亚哥分校教授Victor Shih曾经在我们的节目中指出过中国的地方债务危机。两年之后，中国的地方债问题是否更严峻了？在作为经济增长动力的出口可能面临下滑的背景下，贸易战会如何进一步影响中国的中央财政与地方财政？贸易战可能会引发中国的财政危机吗？</p><br /><p>Victor Shih也在节目中分享了，中国当前处理地方债务问题的“会计游戏”，中国政府在新一轮贸易战发生前做了哪些准备，以及他如何看待贸易战在国家层面的输赢与普通人的关系。欢迎收听本期节目。</p><br /><p>文字版：<a href="https://bit.ly/bmb-151-text" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://bit.ly/bmb-151-text</a></p><br /><p><strong>时间轴：</strong></p><p>01:58 Victor Shih评价中美贸易战的第一回合</p><p>05:09 中国政府如何应对贸易战带来的企业破产与大规模失业？</p><p>07:14 当前关税水平对中国GDP增长的影响</p><p>10:17 “财政压力可能是贸易战对中国政府产生的唯一压力”</p><p>14:47 财政压力会影响地方政府的维稳能力吗？</p><p>15:33 两年过去了，地方债的整体情况有什么变化？</p><p>18:13 贸易战之后，中国哪些省份的债务危机可能更严重？</p><p>23:24 中国政府默许传统服务业衰退、只关心AI？</p><p>25:22 中国地方债问题和普通人之间的关系</p><p>30:43 中共经济政策的逻辑是什么？</p><p>33:12 国内需求疲软和更高关税带来的双重挑战</p><p>36:43 贸易战会是一个长期的状况吗？</p><p>41:28 当中国的经济数据越来越不透明，经济学家如何判断？</p><p>46:17 嘉宾推荐</p><br /><p><strong>嘉宾推荐：</strong></p><p><a href="https://movie.douban.com/subject/35948807/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">电影《秘密会议》（《Conclave》）爱德华·贝尔格</a></p><p><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Rejuvenating-Communism-Organizations-Post-Mao-Understandings/dp/0472075578" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">《Rejuvenating Communism》Jérôme Doyon</a></p><p><a href="https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w29941/w29941.pdf" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">《THE IMPACT OF U.S.-CHINA TENSIONS ON U.S. SCIENCE》</a></p><br /><p><strong>相关链接：</strong></p><p><a href="https://bumingbai.net/2023/02/04/ep-35-victor-shih-on-local-debt/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">EP-035 Victor Shih：地方债会拖垮中国经济吗？</a></p><p><a href="https://bumingbai.net/2025/05/05/ep-149-xuchenggang/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">EP-149 许成钢：中美贸易战会走向何方？</a></p><p><a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/posts/2024/11/a-10-trillion-rmb-accounting-exercise?lang=en" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">《A 10 Trillion RMB Accounting Exercise》</a></p><hr /><p style="color: grey; font-size: 0.75em;"> Hosted on Acast. See <a href="https://acast.com/privacy" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: grey;" target="_blank">acast.com/privacy</a> for more information.</p>

Starting February this year, Teacher Li launched 611Study.ICU and NiuMa.ICU projects through X account "Teacher Li Isn't Teacher Li", the former focusing on "excessive studying" of primary and secondary school students, the latter focusing on "excessive working" of laborers. By early May, these two projects received over 9,000 submissions, including student submissions from over 4,000 schools, and the most direct protests and outcries from workers about involution. Why launch these two projects? Which submissions impressed Teacher Li, and what reality do they reflect? What does Teacher Li, who has been questioned after releasing Li coins, want to say? Is it still possible for us to influence China from overseas? In this conversation, Teacher Li answered questions about the projects themselves, the reality of involution in China, Li coins, and views on action. After the White Paper Movement, Teacher Li's life underwent earth-shaking changes. He believes he is just a blogger, but the reality is that he is regarded as an "opposition" and encounters transnational repression. In the past two years, he has had more thoughts on action. He regards these two projects as an attempt, "no longer just passively accepting and presenting submissions, but I can also actively set the agenda and let the CCP respond." In addition, the Bumingbai podcast is about to celebrate its third anniversary. We continue to solicit letters from listeners, which we will produce into an episode later. You are welcome to send letters to [email protected], or fill out our form: https://bit.ly/bmb-collect-01 Text version: https://bit.ly/bmb-150-text Timeline 03:19 Why focus on "excessive studying" and "excessive working"? 07:22 Submissions from more than 4,000 schools, "the number of people who circumvent the firewall is more than we imagined" 10:50 Average of 95 hours of school per week, 44% of schools have had student suicides 14:29 Teacher Li's teaching past: "Don't let children have their own ideas" 18:30 A child who is always traumatized in the family is the real nightmare 21:36 Major factories restricting overtime became a trending topic, "doesn't this just illustrate the problem?" 22:14 The most bizarre submission: a voice from the United Front Work Department of Karamay 25:42 The core emotion of ordinary people: wanting to be treated like an individual 27:07 Expectations for collective action still exist, but the path to imagine it has been cut off 31:18 Some principals scold students as "little traitors" during flag-raising ceremonies 33:48 Regarding the controversy over Li coins, what Teacher Li wants to say 34:07 Teacher Li's growth: I can also actively set the agenda and let the CCP respond 38:13 What is the significance of collecting individual anonymous submissions in China today? 44:17 Guest recommendations Guest recommendations: 1. "Iron Law of Oligarchy" by Robert Michels, "Politics, Parties, and Pressure Groups" by V.O. Key Jr. 2. "The CCP's Intelligence Organization and Espionage Activities" by Weng Yanqing 3. 《Bumingbai——Why China Has Reached This Point》https://lihi.cc/CjANg Related podcast: 《EP-074 Teacher Li: The White Paper Movement Is A Beginning, Not An End》https://bumingbai.net/2023/11/25/ep-074-whyyoutouzhele/ Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Original title: 李老师：Li币、ICU模式与对抗极权的可能

Original description: <p>今年2月开始，李老师通过X账号“李老师不是李老师”发起了611Study.ICU和牛马.ICU两个项目，前者关注中小学生的“超时学习”问题，后者关注劳动者的“超时工作”问题，这两个项目到5月初收到了超过9000份投稿，其中包括来自四千多所学校的学生投稿，与打工人关于内卷最直接的抗议和倾诉。</p><br /><p>为什么会发起这两个项目？有哪些投稿让李老师印象深刻，它们反映了怎样的现实？发布Li币之后饱受质疑的李老师，有哪些想说的话？在海外，我们是否还有影响中国的可能？在这一期谈话中，李老师回答了关于项目本身、关于对中国内卷现实、关于Li币以及对行动的看法。</p><br /><p>白纸运动之后，李老师的生活发生了翻天覆地的变化。他认为自己只是一个博主，现实却是被当作“反对派”、遭遇跨国镇压。过去两年多，关于行动，他有了更多的思考，他把这两个项目当作一次尝试，“不再只是主动接受投稿和呈现投稿，我也可以主动设置议题，让中共来接招。”</p><br /><p>另外，不明白播客即将迎来三周岁生日，我们继续向听众朋友征集来信，我们会在之后制作成一期节目，欢迎来信至[email protected]，或填写我们的表单：<a href="https://bit.ly/bmb-collect-01" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://bit.ly/bmb-collect-01</a></p><br /><p>文字版：<a href="https://bit.ly/bmb-150-text" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://bit.ly/bmb-150-text</a></p><br /><p>时间轴</p><p>03:19 为什么会关注“超时学习”和“超时工作”？</p><p>07:22 四千多个学校的投稿，“翻墙的人数比我们想象得多”</p><p>10:50 平均每周上学95个小时，44%的学校出现过学生自杀</p><p>14:29 李老师的教学往事：“不要让孩子有自己的想法”</p><p>18:30 家庭中永远有一个心灵受创的孩子，才是真正的噩梦</p><p>21:36 大厂限制加班就上热搜，“这不正说明问题吗？”</p><p>22:14 最匪夷所思的投稿：一个来自克拉玛依统战部的声音</p><p>25:42 普通人的核心情绪：想像个人一样被对待</p><p>27:07 集体行动的期望还在，只是路径想象被切断了</p><p>31:18 有校长在升旗仪式上骂学生是“小汉奸”</p><p>33:48 关于Li币的争议，李老师想说的话</p><p>34:07 李老师的成长：我也可以主动设置议题，让中共来接招</p><p>38:13 收集个体匿名投稿在今天中国的意义是什么？</p><p>44:17 嘉宾推荐</p><br /><p>嘉宾推荐：</p><p>1.《寡头统治铁律》罗伯特·米歇尔斯、《政治、政党与压力集团》小瓦尔迪默•奥兰多•基</p><p>2.《中共情报组织与间谍活动》翁衍庆</p><p>3.<a href="https://lihi.cc/CjANg" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">《不明白——为什么中国走到了这里》</a></p><br /><p>相关播客：<a href="https://bumingbai.net/2023/11/25/ep-074-whyyoutouzhele/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">《EP-074 李老师：白纸运动是开始，不是结束》</a></p><hr /><p style="color: grey; font-size: 0.75em;"> Hosted on Acast. See <a href="https://acast.com/privacy" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: grey;" target="_blank">acast.com/privacy</a> for more information.</p>

May 10th marks the fourth anniversary of the arrest of Ruan Xiaohuan, also known as Programming Thoughts. In this episode, we re-broadcast the conversation with Ruan Xiaohuan's wife, Ms. Bei, from two years ago. This episode was recorded in May 2023, shortly after Ruan Xiaohuan's first trial, where he was sentenced to 7 years in prison for "inciting subversion of state power." Last month, Ms. Bei shared an update on Ruan Xiaohuan's situation. Since the second trial verdict in December last year, he has not been transferred from the detention center to a prison, which generally has better conditions. The family is fighting for rights such as communication. In this episode, Ms. Bei recounts how she discovered that her husband was "Programming Thoughts," and also talks about Ruan Xiaohuan in life, their marriage, and their lives. Ms. Bei also mentioned that when watching "Coco" with Ruan Xiaohuan, he said, "If there is something left in this world that many people remember you by, then you are truly alive forever." **Three-Year Anniversary Letter Collection:** On the occasion of the third anniversary, we want to collect stories from you, the listener, who has grown with the Bu明白 (Bu Ming Bai) Podcast. What does the Bu明白 Podcast mean in your life? How has your life changed with the world in these three years? Have you moved from one city to another? Have you achieved any wishes? Or are you still looking for a way forward in frustration? Please share your story with us. If convenient, please indicate the country, city, gender, age, and occupation in which you live. Send your letters to [email protected] Text version: https://bit.ly/bmb-048-txt **Timeline:** 3:42 Ms. Bei recounts the experience of Ruan Xiaohuan's arrest 8:58 How Ms. Bei discovered that Ruan Xiaohuan was "Programming Thoughts" 17:56 Ms. Bei recounts the experience of meeting and marrying Ruan Xiaohuan 25:58 Ruan Xiaohuan's views on work, money, and whether to raise children 32:08 Ms. Bei's thoughts after discovering that Ruan Xiaohuan was "Programming Thoughts" 37:20 Ms. Bei's views on the articles of "Programming Thoughts" 42:45 A voice message from a fan of "Programming Thoughts" 45:25 Why Ruan Xiaohuan chose to write a technical blog to seek change in China 47:57 Ruan Xiaohuan's journey of choosing to be an independent developer and then starting the "Programming Thoughts" blog 50:20 Does Ruan Xiaohuan feel lonely writing an anonymous blog for more than ten years? 54:07 Various abnormal phenomena at home before Ruan Xiaohuan was arrested 55:08 Ms. Bei's opinion on how "Programming Thoughts" was compromised 57:52 Ms. Bei recounts the injustices encountered in the investigation and trial of Ruan Xiaohuan's case 1:07:36 Guest recommendations Guest Recommendations: "Strategy: The Indirect Approach" by B. H. Liddell Hart https://book.douban.com/subject/4723775/ Movie "The Attorney" by Yang Woo-seok https://movie.douban.com/subject/21937445/ Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Original title: 【精选】谁是编程随想？

Original description: <p>5月10日是阮晓寰，也就是编程随想，被捕四周年的日子。这一期节目，我们重播两年前和阮晓寰的妻子贝女士的对话。</p><br /><p>这期节目录制的时候是2023年5月，阮晓寰一审宣判不久，他以“煽动颠覆国家政权罪”被判处7年徒刑。上个月，贝女士分享了阮晓寰的近况，自去年12月二审宣判后，他一直未被安排从看守所转到一般来说条件会相对好一些的监狱，家属正在就通讯权等问题维权。</p><br /><p>本期节目中，贝女士讲述了她发现丈夫就是“编程随想”的过程，也谈到生活中的阮晓寰、谈到她们的婚姻和人生。贝女士还讲到和阮晓寰一起看《寻梦环游记》时，阮晓寰说：“如果要有一个事情留在这个世界上，让很多人记得你，你才是真正的一直活着”。</p><br /><p><strong>三周年来信征集：</strong>三周年之际，我们想要征集声音那头、和不明白播客一起成长的你的故事，不明白播客在你的生活中意味着什么？这三年间，你的生活如何随着世界的变化而变化？是否从一个城市搬到另外一个城市？是否达成了什么愿望？抑或是仍然在沮丧中寻找前路？请来信与我们分享。方便的话，请注明你生活的国家、城市、性别、年龄和职业，来信至[email protected]</p><br /><p>文字版：<a href="https://bit.ly/bmb-048-txt" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://bit.ly/bmb-048-txt</a></p><br /><p><strong>时间轴：</strong></p><p>3:42贝女士讲述阮晓寰被捕的经历</p><p>8:58 贝女士是如何发现阮晓寰就是“编程随想”的</p><p>17:56 贝女士讲述与阮晓寰相识与结婚的经历</p><p>25:58 阮晓寰对于工作、金钱和是否养育子女的看法</p><p>32:08 贝女士在发现阮晓寰就是“编程随想”之后的想法</p><p>37:20 贝女士如何看待“编程随想”的文章</p><p>42:45 “编程随想”的一位粉丝发来的语音</p><p>45:25 为什么阮晓寰会选择写技术博客的方式来寻求改变中国</p><p>47:57 阮晓寰选择做独立开发者、然后开通“编程随想”博客的心路历程</p><p>50:20 阮晓寰坚持写匿名博客十几年会觉得孤独吗</p><p>54:07 阮晓寰被捕前家里的各种反常现象</p><p>55:08贝女士认为“编程随想”是如何被攻破的</p><p>57:52 贝女士讲述阮晓寰案在侦查和审判中遭遇的不公</p><p>1:07:36 嘉宾推荐</p><br /><p>嘉宾推荐：</p><p>《战略论:间接路线》李德·哈特</p><p><a href="https://book.douban.com/subject/4723775/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://book.douban.com/subject/4723775/</a></p><p>电影《辩护人》杨宇硕</p><p><a href="https://movie.douban.com/subject/21937445/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://movie.douban.com/subject/21937445/</a></p><hr /><p style="color: grey; font-size: 0.75em;"> Hosted on Acast. See <a href="https://acast.com/privacy" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: grey;" target="_blank">acast.com/privacy</a> for more information.</p>

贸易战会让中国出现重大的经济危机吗？中共的政权会因此受到何种影响？贸易战如果继续升级会不会导致战争的出现？过去这段时间，这场几乎占据了全世界注意力的贸易战，为人们带来了许多未解的问题。 为了回答这些问题，我们邀请到斯坦福大学中国经济与制度研究中心高级研究员许成刚教授，在5月3日做了一场直播答疑，本期节目为直播的精剪版本。 这场直播中，许成钢教授回应了众多听众的担忧，谈到了这场贸易战的起源、当下与对未来的影响，也分享了他对中国政治制度和经济问题的长期观察：为什么会同时存在“两个中国”——一个是DeepSeek 、高铁的中国，一个是失业率高涨和经济低迷的中国——这不是互相矛盾的？欢迎收听本期节目。 文字版全文：https://bit.ly/bmb-149-text 时间轴： 01:30 特朗普为什么要发动贸易战？难道是因为比较笨吗？ 12:23 贸易战可能把全球经济拖入衰退的泥潭吗？ 17:47 贸易战可能会有哪些走向？ 24:09 中共会因此摆脱孤立吗？ 26:56 这一次，中国为什么如此强硬？ 32:06 中国也能卡其他国家的脖子？ 35:35 鼓吹中国成功的人都是不算经济账的 37:41 “一方面技术发达，一方面癌症大发作” 47:33 新质生产力可能将中国的经济带出泥潭吗？ 50:26 贸易战是否会触发战争？ 54:47 贸易战是压倒骆驼的最后一根稻草 01:03:03 贸易战可能可能倒逼中共改革吗？ 01:10:56 中共会在意社会经济的压力与民众情绪吗？ 采访征集：在这场贸易战中，不明白播客非常希望听到普通人的声音。如果您的生意、工作受到贸易战的影响，欢迎您给我们来信。在两个政府不惜一切代价打贸易战的时候，我们想知道被当作代价牺牲掉的是什么？欢迎来信至[email protected] 相关播客链接 直播视频回放 《EP-145 黄亚生：川普的关税大棒下世界将走向何方？》

Original title: 许成钢：中美贸易战会走向何方？

Original description: <p>贸易战会让中国出现重大的经济危机吗？中共的政权会因此受到何种影响？贸易战如果继续升级会不会导致战争的出现？过去这段时间，这场几乎占据了全世界注意力的贸易战，为人们带来了许多未解的问题。</p><br /><p>为了回答这些问题，我们邀请到斯坦福大学中国经济与制度研究中心高级研究员许成刚教授，在5月3日做了一场直播答疑，本期节目为直播的精剪版本。</p><br /><p>这场直播中，许成钢教授回应了众多听众的担忧，谈到了这场贸易战的起源、当下与对未来的影响，也分享了他对中国政治制度和经济问题的长期观察：为什么会同时存在“两个中国”——一个是DeepSeek 、高铁的中国，一个是失业率高涨和经济低迷的中国——这不是互相矛盾的？欢迎收听本期节目。</p><br /><p>文字版全文：<a href="https://bit.ly/bmb-149-text" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://bit.ly/bmb-149-text</a></p><br /><p>时间轴：</p><p>01:30 特朗普为什么要发动贸易战？难道是因为比较笨吗？</p><p>12:23 贸易战可能把全球经济拖入衰退的泥潭吗？</p><p>17:47 贸易战可能会有哪些走向？</p><p>24:09 中共会因此摆脱孤立吗？</p><p>26:56 这一次，中国为什么如此强硬？</p><p>32:06 中国也能卡其他国家的脖子？</p><p>35:35 鼓吹中国成功的人都是不算经济账的</p><p>37:41 “一方面技术发达，一方面癌症大发作”</p><p>47:33 新质生产力可能将中国的经济带出泥潭吗？</p><p>50:26 贸易战是否会触发战争？</p><p>54:47 贸易战是压倒骆驼的最后一根稻草</p><p>01:03:03 贸易战可能可能倒逼中共改革吗？</p><p>01:10:56 中共会在意社会经济的压力与民众情绪吗？</p><br /><p>采访征集：在这场贸易战中，不明白播客非常希望听到普通人的声音。如果您的生意、工作受到贸易战的影响，欢迎您给我们来信。在两个政府不惜一切代价打贸易战的时候，我们想知道被当作代价牺牲掉的是什么？欢迎来信至[email protected]</p><br /><p>相关播客链接</p><p><a href="https://youtube.com/live/kv25Pf9-3Sc" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">直播视频回放</a></p><p><a href="https://bumingbai.net/2025/04/08/ep-145-huangyasheng/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">《EP-145 黄亚生：川普的关税大棒下世界将走向何方？》</a></p><hr /><p style="color: grey; font-size: 0.75em;"> Hosted on Acast. See <a href="https://acast.com/privacy" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: grey;" target="_blank">acast.com/privacy</a> for more information.</p>

Being questioned and admonished by the police sounds distant and serious. In reality, many ordinary people have encountered police inquiries and conversations for circumventing the Great Firewall, expressing opinions, and paying attention to certain social issues. This seems to be an "era of universal tea-drinking." What exactly is "tea-drinking"? What will you face when you receive a call from the police? What do the police care about and what are they afraid of? How can we deal with the aftermath and complex emotions of "tea-drinking"? In this episode, three ordinary people from different cities tell their "tea-drinking" stories. People are "invited for tea" for caring about social justice, insisting on their desired lifestyles, and having the most authentic desire for expression. The narratives contain absurd details, real fears, and the life destinies of people who have been changed by "tea-drinking." Choosing to publicly tell such experiences also requires courage. One storyteller said, "The state apparatus relies on fear to rule people, but (speaking out) is to eliminate the feelings of fear that once existed." Text version: https://bit.ly/bmb-148-text **Timeline**: 01:48 Emily: "Invited for tea" for scolding Xi Jinping on Twitter 05:44 The police printed out Emily's Twitter comments and read them out one by one 08:47 During the tea session, the police recommended a VPN to Emily? 10:52 Received a call from the police half a year later, imagined the worst consequences, but the result was unexpected 15:03 Unexplainable motivation: People will do things to care about social justice 19:59 The police seriously investigated bank cards, trying to find evidence of "foreign forces" 21:58 "Tea-drinking" is part of life in China 29:09 "Tea-drinking is like being slapped in the face, you will feel pain, but it doesn't mean you are weak" 31:14 Matt: The thrilling experience of drinking tea for the first time 35:07 24 hours of tea-drinking experience, realizing that "losing freedom is like years passing by in hours" 41:27 Why did Matt, as a person within the system, start circumventing the Great Firewall? 43:50 Why is he still willing to discuss "sensitive" topics after experiencing tea-drinking? 46:10 Matt's family and friends around him don't understand his experience 50:13 After immigrating, I realized that true freedom is because of a sticker 53:31 Frances: An ordinary person who has drunk tea many times 55:20 "Invited for tea" for jointly signing a memorial for Koyama Kohei 58:07 One of the National Security officers who interviewed her was an "acquaintance" 01:00:52 What do the police want to know most? 01:06:35 Why is Frances still willing to sign petitions with her real name? 01:06:58 Words for those who have never drunk tea Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Original title: 和警察“喝茶”会经历什么？

Original description: <p>被警察约谈、训诫，听起来遥远而严肃，实际上，许多普通人都曾因为翻墙、发表言论、关注某些社会议题而遭遇警方的问询和谈话，这似乎是一个“全民喝茶时代”。“喝茶”究竟是怎么回事？当你接到警察的电话，你会面临什么？警察关心什么、又害怕什么？我们能如何处理“喝茶”的余波和复杂情绪？</p><br /><p>这一期节目中，三位来自不同城市的普通人讲述了自己的“喝茶”故事，人们会因为关心社会正义、坚持自己想要的生活方式和最真实的表达欲而被“喝茶”，讲述里有荒诞的细节、真实的恐惧、也有因为“喝茶”而被改变的人生命运。选择公开讲述这样的经历也需要勇气，其中一位讲述者说，“国家机器靠恐惧来统治人，但（讲出来）是为了把曾经害怕的感受给排除出去”。</p><br /><p>文字版：<a href="https://bit.ly/bmb-148-text" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://bit.ly/bmb-148-text</a></p><br /><p><strong>时间轴</strong>：</p><br /><p>01:48 Emily：因为在推特上骂习近平而“喝茶”</p><p>05:44 警察打印了Emily的推特言论，一条条念出来</p><p>08:47 喝茶过程中，警察给Emily推荐了一款VPN？</p><p>10:52 半年之后接到警察的电话，想象了最坏的后果，结果却出人意外</p><p>15:03 无法解释的动机：人会为了在乎社会公正而去做事情</p><p>19:59 警察很认真追查银行卡，试图寻找”境外势力“的证据</p><p>21:58 “喝茶”是生活在中国的一部分</p><p>29:09 “喝茶就像被打了一巴掌，你会感觉痛，但不代表你软弱“</p><p>31:14 Matt：第一次喝茶的惊险经历</p><p>35:07 24小时的喝茶经历，体会到“失去自由是度‘小时’如年”</p><p>41:27 Matt作为体制内人员为何开始翻墙?</p><p>43:50 经历过喝茶为什么还愿意讨论“敏感”议题？</p><p>46:10 家人和周围朋友不理解Matt的遭遇</p><p>50:13 移民之后，意识到真正的自由是因为一张贴纸</p><p>53:31 Frances：一位喝了许多次茶的普通人</p><p>55:20 因为联署纪念小山航平而喝茶</p><p>58:07 约谈的其中一位国宝是“熟人”</p><p>01:00:52 警察最想知道的是什么？</p><p>01:06:35 Frances为什么还愿意实名联署？</p><p>01:06:58 对没有喝过茶的人想说的话</p><hr /><p style="color: grey; font-size: 0.75em;"> Hosted on Acast. See <a href="https://acast.com/privacy" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: grey;" target="_blank">acast.com/privacy</a> for more information.</p>

Xia Chaochuan was arrested twice during the White Paper Movement. During the 2023 Shanghai Halloween, photos of TA walking on the street covered in white paper were widely circulated by the media. In mid-March, Yuan Li met Xia Chaochuan during an offline meetup in the Netherlands. TA left China for the Netherlands in early 2024 and has since been deeply involved in and observing the overseas civil society ecosystem of China. In this episode, Xia Chaochuan talks about their growing up experiences, how TA gradually understood the complexity of the Chinese reality in different stages and different predicaments, as well as the risks and limitations faced by activists. How does TA view the connection between trauma and action, and how does TA choose to come forward with their real name when fear has never really dissipated? In the Netherlands, TA was embraced by a friendly community atmosphere and continues to question "what to do next." TA learns from the Tibetan and Uyghur communities, hoping to connect with more mainstream and professional social movement contexts. For Chinese activists, can we find the social movement traditions that once existed? Can those fractured experiences still be reconnected? As a generation that grew up with the White Paper Movement, how can we rebuild an ideal civil society? Text version: https://bit.ly/bmb-147-text Timeline: 01:19 A gender studies course that changed Xia Chaochuan 02:58 The dilemma of action seen after returning to China in 2020 - "Be loud and be quiet" 06:03 Trauma response after the White Paper Movement 09:24 Halloween 2020, walking on the street covered in white paper, people's reactions 12:10 Community ecology observed overseas 17:53 White Paper Movement 2nd Anniversary Rally 21:18 Inviting Tibetans and Uyghurs to participate, "returning the stage to them instead of the Han Chinese themselves" 25:58 Movement experience learned from the Tibetan and Uyghur communities 27:47 Hanging a banner in a location where Xi Jinping will appear 29:53 Fear is a lifelong trauma "If anything makes us not afraid, it's a lie" 34:22 Deciding to use real name, the price is not being able to return to China, but "the feeling of not being afraid is very important" 36:22 Reflections on overseas communities, both supported by the "bubble circle" and wanting to break the "bubble circle" 43:28 "What drives me to do social movements is not happiness, but a lot of pain" 46:24 What counts as action? Is eating hot pot, knitting sweaters, and showing movies action? 49:20 The commitment of Tibetans and Uyghurs to social movements is very high 53:54 In summer camp group photos, Chinese people always quit 55:16 Is anonymity an obstacle to moving forward? 57:52 "I no longer think about whether China will change, but how social movements will continue" Guest Recommendations: "Made in China: Women Workers in a Global Factory" by Pun Ngai "Slaughterhouse-Five" by Kurt Vonnegut "Kim Jiyoung, Born 1982" by Cho Nam-joo Related Podcast Links: EP-125 Two Years Later, How Do We View the White Paper Movement? https://bumingbai.net/2024/11/30/ep-125-baizhi/ EP-074 Teacher Li: The White Paper Movement is a Beginning, Not an End https://bumingbai.net/2023/11/25/ep-074-whyyoutouzhele/ Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Original title: 夏巢川：白纸一代如何重建公民社会？

Original description: <p>夏巢川在白纸运动期间两度被捕，2023年的上海万圣节，TA在身上贴满白纸走上街头的照片，被媒体广泛传播。3月中旬，袁莉在荷兰的线下见面会期间见到了夏巢川，TA在2024年初离开中国来到了荷兰，自此深度参与和观察中国的海外公民社会生态。</p><br /><p>本期节目中，夏巢川讲述了自己的成长经历，讲述了Ta如何在不同阶段、不同困境中，逐步理解中国现实的复杂性，以及行动者所面对的风险与局限。TA如何看待创伤和行动之间的联系，又是如何在恐惧从未真正消散的情况下，选择实名、站出来？</p><br /><p>在荷兰，TA被友善的社群氛围所接住，也不断追问“下一步该怎么做”。TA从藏人和维吾尔人社群中学习经验，希望与更主流的、更专业的社会运动脉络接轨。而对于中国行动者来说，我们是否能找回曾经存在过的社会运动传统？那些断裂的经验，是否仍然可能被重新链接？作为白纸成长起来的一代人，如何重建一个理想的公民社会？</p><br /><p>文字版：<a href="https://bit.ly/bmb-147-text" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://bit.ly/bmb-147-text</a></p><br /><p><strong>时间轴：</strong></p><p>01:19 改变夏巢川的一堂性别研究课程</p><p>02:58 2020年回国后看到的行动困境——“既要大声，也要小声”</p><p>06:03 白纸运动之后的创伤反应</p><p>09:24 2020年万圣节，贴满白纸走上街头，人们的反应</p><p>12:10 在海外观察到的社群生态</p><p>17:53 白纸两周年集会现场</p><p>21:18 邀请藏人和维吾尔人参加，“把舞台还给他们而不是汉人自己“</p><p>25:58 从藏人和维吾尔人社群学习到的运动经验</p><p>27:47 在习近平会出现的位置挂一个横幅</p><p>29:53 恐惧是伴随一生的创伤 “如果有什么东西让我们不恐惧，那是假话”</p><p>34:22 决定实名，代价是不能回国，但是”不恐惧的感受很重要“</p><p>36:22 对海外社群的反思，既被“泡泡圈”支持，又很想打破”泡泡圈“</p><p>43:28 “推动我做社会运动的不是快乐，而是很多痛苦”</p><p>46:24 什么才算行动？吃火锅、打毛线、放电影是行动吗？</p><p>49:20 藏人和维吾尔人对社会运动投入的承诺非常高</p><p>53:54 夏令营的合影环境，中国人总是退出</p><p>55:16&nbsp;匿名对于往前一步是障碍吗？</p><p>57:52 “我不再想中国会不会改变，而是想社会运动如何延续”</p><br /><p><strong>嘉宾推荐：</strong></p><p>《中国制造：全球化工厂下的女工》潘毅</p><p><a href="https://book.douban.com/subject/1395228/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">《五号屠场》库尔特·冯内古特</a></p><p><a href="https://book.douban.com/subject/36328042/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">《狂女的逆袭》闵瑞瑛</a></p><br /><p>相关播客链接：</p><p><a href="https://bumingbai.net/2024/11/30/ep-125-baizhi/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">EP-125 两年后，我们如何看待白纸运动？</a></p><p><a href="https://bumingbai.net/2023/11/25/ep-074-whyyoutouzhele/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">EP-074 李老师：白纸运动是开始，不是结束</a></p><hr /><p style="color: grey; font-size: 0.75em;"> Hosted on Acast. See <a href="https://acast.com/privacy" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: grey;" target="_blank">acast.com/privacy</a> for more information.</p>