Early this year, after DeepSeek emerged, the US and Silicon Valley were filled with talk about how amazing China is. Silicon Valley's view of Chinese technology has shifted from pure contempt and vigilance to envy, jealousy, and curiosity. This episode's guest, Afra, used to work in Silicon Valley and now writes a Substack Newsletter called Concurrent, focusing on the technological and cultural ecosystems of China and the United States. In this episode, we are not seeking answers to US-China competition. How did Afra perceive the phenomenon of "China anxiety" in Silicon Valley? When Silicon Valley's tech elites express envy, what are they envious of? Does this envy overestimate China's technological breakthroughs and the contradiction of mismatched needs? What does the shift in Silicon Valley's attitude toward China's technological development indicate? Why do American elites feel lost? When Silicon Valley starts learning China's 996 work system, what should be guarded against? We also discussed the differences between the AI ecosystems of China and the United States, and some recent books and arguments about US-China competition popular in Silicon Valley and the United States. **Timeline:** 02:21 How did Silicon Valley's "China anxiety" arise? 06:56 Why hasn't there been widespread envy of China before? 08:38 When Silicon Valley engineers say they envy China, what are they envious of? 12:47 "China copies" and "China wins big," why are polarized narratives so marketable in the United States? 19:11 The great disappointment of American intellectual elites: things invented in the United States are widely used in China 20:21 How do different emphases on idealism and industrial implementation affect the technological development paths of China and the United States? 23:32 Has the United States realized how big the "iceberg under the water" is? 28:17 How to understand China's AI large models choosing open source, while most of the US AI large models are closed source? 32:57 Is the United States overestimating the contradiction between China's technological breakthroughs and mismatched needs due to insufficient domestic demand, unemployment, dependence on subsidies, and overcapacity? 38:54 Does Silicon Valley really envy the Chinese government's strong resource allocation capabilities? 42:30 Can the saying of "rule of lawyers" and "rule of engineers" explain the competitive situation between China and the United States? 45:37 Silicon Valley starts learning China's 996 work system, "Silicon Valley learns bad things from the very beginning!" 47:47 Why would a group of people who least want the government to interfere envy China's totalitarian governance model? 51:41 If Afra could rewrite the narrative about China to help American readers understand China, how would she do it? Guest recommendations: Dan Wang《Breakneck》 Mo Leining《Chinese Typewriter》 Kerry Brown《China Through European Eyes》 Related Links: Concurrent: https://afraw.substack.com EP-166 Xu Chenggang: US-China Technology Competition, Will China Win? EP-155 Li Houchen: Why Can't the "New Three" and AI Save the Chinese Economy? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Original title: 硅谷也要996，美国的“中国焦虑”揭示了什么？

Original description: <p>今年年初，DeepSeek横空出世之后，美国和硅谷充满了关于中国如何厉害的言论。硅谷对中国科技的看法从单纯的看不起和戒备，转向羡慕、嫉妒和好奇。本期节目的嘉宾Afra曾在硅谷工作，现在写一个Substack Newsletter叫Concurrent，她的写作主题聚焦中美两国的科技与文化生态。</p><br /><p>这期节目，我们并不寻求中美竞争的答案。Afra是如何感受到硅谷的“中国焦虑”这一现象的？当硅谷的科技精英们表达羡慕的时候，羡慕的是什么？这种羡慕是否高估了中国的技术突破与需求错配的矛盾？硅谷对中国科技发展态度的转变说明了什么？为什么美国精英感到失落？当硅谷开始学习中国的996工作制，有哪些需要警惕的地方？我们还谈论了中美AI生态的不同，以及最近在硅谷和美国流行的一些关于中美竞争的书籍和论调。</p><br /><p><strong>时间轴：</strong></p><p>02:21 硅谷的“中国焦虑”是如何出现的？</p><p>06:56 为什么以前没有出现大规模地对中国的羡慕？</p><p>08:38 当硅谷工程师说羡慕中国，羡慕的是什么？</p><p>12:47 “中国靠抄袭”和“中国赢麻了”，为什么两极化的叙事在美国如此有市场？</p><p>19:11 美国知识精英的巨大失落：美国发明的东西在中国被广泛应用起来</p><p>20:21 理想主义和产业落实，不同侧重如何影响了中美两国的科技发展路径？</p><p>23:32 美国意识到“水面下的冰山”有多大了吗？</p><p>28:17 如何理解中国AI大模型选择开源，而美国的AI大模型大多都是闭源的？</p><p>32:57 内需不足、失业、依赖补贴和产能过剩，美国是否高估了中国的技术突破与需求错配的矛盾？</p><p>38:54 硅谷真的羡慕中国政府强力资源调配的能力吗？</p><p>42:30 律师治国和工程师治国的说法，可以解释中美竞争态势吗？</p><p>45:37 硅谷开始学习中国的996工作制度，“硅谷最早就学习坏的东西！”</p><p>47:47 最不想要政府来管的一帮人，为什么会羡慕中国极权治理模式？</p><p>51:41 如果可以重写对中国的叙事帮助美国读者理解中国，Afra会如何做？</p><br /><p>嘉宾推荐：</p><p><a href="https://book.douban.com/subject/37422963/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Dan Wang《Breakneck》</a></p><p><a href="https://book.douban.com/subject/36089563/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">墨磊宁《中文打字机》</a></p><p><a href="https://book.douban.com/subject/36425691/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Kerry Brown《欧洲人眼中的中国》</a></p><br /><p>相关链接：</p><p>Concurrent：<a href="https://afraw.substack.com/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://afraw.substack.com</a></p><p><a href="https://youtu.be/UgK4iR5lz4c" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">EP-166 许成钢：中美科技竞争，中国要赢了吗？</a></p><p><a href="https://youtu.be/cID6p3RVr0M" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">EP-155 李厚辰：为什么“新三样”和AI救不了中国经济？</a></p><hr /><p style="color: grey; font-size: 0.75em;"> Hosted on Acast. See <a href="https://acast.com/privacy" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: grey;" target="_blank">acast.com/privacy</a> for more information.</p>

Robert Daly has worked in US-China relations for nearly 40 years, including 12 years in China. He was a US diplomat in China, taught Chinese, starred in one of the most popular TV series in the 90s, "A Native of Beijing in New York," and later spent a long time studying US-China relations. As a witness to the changes in US-China relations, how have Daly's basic feelings about the two countries changed? Why does he think the current US-China relationship must be understood within the framework of a "new Cold War"? How does he view recent US policies towards China? In the context of the new Cold War, how will pessimism about the reality of the United States and excessive praise for Chinese technology affect the policies of the two countries? As a "non-hawk" analyst, what is the biggest challenge he faces in an increasingly closed and antagonistic atmosphere? **Timeline:** 00:00 intro 01:17 As a witness to the changes in US-China relations, how have Daly's basic feelings about the United States and China changed? 06:22 Is this a new Cold War? What is the competition about in the new Cold War? 10:37 How does pessimism about the current state of the United States affect the formulation of China policy? 18:20 How will Beijing take advantage of the pessimistic sentiment in American society? 20:16 How do you view the outside world's endless praise for China's technology industry? 24:52 Q&A;: Is opposing the current authoritarian tendencies in the United States also an effort to defeat autocratic communist China? 26:53 What goals should US policy towards China pursue? 30:35 Q&A;: Is the resilience of the American system underestimated? 32:27 Q&A;: How do you view people who criticize the Communist Party while supporting Trump? 34:51 Q&A;: What was the biggest impact of Trump's rise to power on US policy toward China? 36:41 How do you view "Trump's first term gave the United States a clearer understanding of the threat from the CCP"? 39:04 What are the fatal weaknesses of the Chinese regime? 39:58 Have you observed any traces of civil autonomy in China? 41:57 Q&A;: Is the "satisfaction theory" heard in China sincere or out of politeness? 43:12 Do Ne Zha, Heytea, and Labubu mean that China's cultural soft power has increased? 47:35 As a non-hawk China policy expert, what is the biggest challenge in your current work? Related Links: EP-166 Xu Chenggang: US-China technology competition, will China win? EP-155 Li Houchen: Why can't the "new three" and AI save the Chinese economy? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Original title: 【DC不明白节】Robert Daly：万一中国赢了——如何更现实地看待中美竞争？

Original description: <p>&nbsp;Robert Daly戴博在美中关系领域已经工作了将近 40 年，其中有 12 年是在中国。他做过美国驻华外交官，教过中文，出演过90年代最火的电视剧之一《北京人在纽约》，后来长期研究美中关系。</p><br /><p>作为美中关系变化的亲历者，戴博对两国的基本感受发生过怎样的变化？他为什么认为必须用“新冷战”框架理解当下中美关系？如何看待美国近年的对华政策？在新冷战背景下，对美国现实的悲观情绪和对中国科技的过度夸赞，会如何影响两国的政策？作为一位“非鹰派”的分析者，在愈发封闭与对立的氛围下，他面临的最大挑战是什么？</p><br /><p><strong>时间轴：</strong></p><p>00:00 intro</p><p>01:17 作为中美关系变化的亲历者，戴博对美国和中国的基本感受如何变化？</p><p>06:22 这是新冷战吗？新冷战是关于什么的竞争？</p><p>10:37 对美国现状的悲观论调如何影响对华政策的制定？</p><p>18:20 北京方面会如何利用美国社会的悲观情绪？</p><p>20:16 如何看待外界对中国科技业的无限夸赞？</p><p>24:52 现场提问：反对美国当下的威权主义倾向是否也是为打败专制的共产中国而努力？</p><p>26:53 美国对华政策应该追求什么样的目标？</p><p>30:35 现场提问：对美国制度的韧性是否太低估了？</p><p>32:27 现场提问：如何看待一边批判共产党、一边支持川普的人？</p><p>34:51 现场提问：特朗普上台对美国对华政策的最大影响是什么？</p><p>36:41 如何看待“是川普的第一个任期让美国对中共的威胁有了比较清醒的认知”</p><p>39:04 中国政权的致命弱点是什么？</p><p>39:58 是否在中国观察到任何民间自治痕迹？</p><p>41:57 现场提问：在中国听到的“满意论”是真心话还是出于客气？</p><p>43:12 哪吒、霸王茶姬、labubu是否意味着中国文化软实力增强了？</p><p>47:35 作为非鹰派的中国政策专家，目前工作上最大的挑战是什么？</p><br /><p>相关链接：</p><p><a href="https://youtu.be/UgK4iR5lz4c" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">EP-166 许成钢：中美科技竞争，中国要赢了吗？</a></p><p><a href="https://youtu.be/cID6p3RVr0M" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">EP-155 李厚辰：为什么“新三样”和AI救不了中国经济？</a></p><hr /><p style="color: grey; font-size: 0.75em;"> Hosted on Acast. See <a href="https://acast.com/privacy" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: grey;" target="_blank">acast.com/privacy</a> for more information.</p>

今年，“经济上行期的美”忽然成为社交媒体上的流行语。据新榜统计，“千禧年”、“经济上行的美”等怀旧主题标签在中国互联网获得超百亿次的浏览量。怀旧的方向有很多，从街头时尚、流行文化、毕业拿工作offer拿到手软、到相对开放的社会氛围。 当然，千禧年后的中国社会并不完美。在经济高速发展的过程中，有许多人被时代落下，也有很多人被铁拳蹂躏。今天流行的“经济上行的美”，或许并不能完整反映那个时代的面貌。但无论是真实的回忆，还是事后的想象，它都承载着某种集体情绪。 我们邀请了四位来自不同年龄段、不同城市和不同行业的人来谈论这个话题，Ta们眼中的“经济上行期的美“体现在哪些方面？经济上行期的社会氛围如何影响了Ta们的工作、生活和对未来的想象？当一切过去，Ta们打算如何应对经济下行期的生活？ 除了怀念，在本期节目，Ta们也反思了当时只注重经济增长的社会。“经济上行期”不仅关乎经济增长和收入水平，更关乎社会氛围、价值观念与个体命运。当增长的“止痛药”消失，隐藏的问题重新显现，我们对“过去的美好”的怀念，也成为理解当下的重要线索。 **时间轴：** 02:12 韦先生的经济上行期记忆：非主流发型、《无间道》、《刺客信条》 07:35 经济上行期的结束：从刚毕业时很快买房买车，到找工作困难 11:30 他怀恋的韩寒和一个充满批判的时代 16:17 如何度过经济下行期？ 18:22 Cora的北京记忆：个体小店、夜市经济，“特别朴素，又特别有生机” 23:26 清理“低端人口”带来的不安全感 29:26 承认对经济上行期的想象不完美，但珍视“个体可以发光”的社会氛围 31:38 余先生：29岁，从上海大厂辞职，现居柏林 33:23 一场大厂高管的同志婚礼：“好像只要挣够了钱，就能无视社会与政治的规则” 39:41 对经济上行期的反思：以为赚钱是最重要的 43:48 大厂也要过“紧日子”，高薪、团建、年终奖一去不复返 47:30 林女士：70后，“人生每一步都是贴着时代走的” 48:36 毕业即多份offer，工资年年上涨，消费乐观 51:49 2011年辞职创业，从未想过经济下行的可能 55:38 “2019是过去十年最差的一年，也会是往后十年最好的一年” 58:08 疫情期间的挣扎：从积极应对到黯然离场 01:06:43 两代人的对比：以前想要自由，现在想要编制 相关链接： EP-156 在阶层固化中挣扎的人们 EP-157 在阶层固化中挣扎的小镇做题家 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Original title: 人们为什么怀念“经济上行期的美”？

Original description: <p>今年，“经济上行期的美”忽然成为社交媒体上的流行语。据新榜统计，“千禧年”、“经济上行的美”等怀旧主题标签在中国互联网获得超百亿次的浏览量。怀旧的方向有很多，从街头时尚、流行文化、毕业拿工作offer拿到手软、到相对开放的社会氛围。</p><br /><p>当然，千禧年后的中国社会并不完美。在经济高速发展的过程中，有许多人被时代落下，也有很多人被铁拳蹂躏。今天流行的“经济上行的美”，或许并不能完整反映那个时代的面貌。但无论是真实的回忆，还是事后的想象，它都承载着某种集体情绪。</p><br /><p>我们邀请了四位来自不同年龄段、不同城市和不同行业的人来谈论这个话题，Ta们眼中的“经济上行期的美“体现在哪些方面？经济上行期的社会氛围如何影响了Ta们的工作、生活和对未来的想象？当一切过去，Ta们打算如何应对经济下行期的生活？</p><br /><p>除了怀念，在本期节目，Ta们也反思了当时只注重经济增长的社会。“经济上行期”不仅关乎经济增长和收入水平，更关乎社会氛围、价值观念与个体命运。当增长的“止痛药”消失，隐藏的问题重新显现，我们对“过去的美好”的怀念，也成为理解当下的重要线索。</p><br /><p>文字版：<a href="https://bit.ly/bmb-172-text" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://bit.ly/bmb-172-text</a></p><br /><p><strong>时间轴：</strong></p><p>02:12 韦先生的经济上行期记忆：非主流发型、《无间道》、《刺客信条》</p><p>07:35 经济上行期的结束：从刚毕业时很快买房买车，到找工作困难</p><p>11:30 他怀恋的韩寒和一个充满批判的时代</p><p>16:17 如何度过经济下行期？</p><p>18:22 Cora的北京记忆：个体小店、夜市经济，“特别朴素，又特别有生机”</p><p>23:26 清理“低端人口”带来的不安全感</p><p>29:26 承认对经济上行期的想象不完美，但珍视“个体可以发光”的社会氛围</p><p>31:38 余先生：29岁，从上海大厂辞职，现居柏林</p><p>33:23一场大厂高管的同志婚礼：“好像只要挣够了钱，就能无视社会与政治的规则”</p><p>39:41 对经济上行期的反思：以为赚钱是最重要的</p><p>43:48 大厂也要过“紧日子”，高薪、团建、年终奖一去不复返</p><p>47:30 林女士：70后，“人生每一步都是贴着时代走的”</p><p>48:36 毕业即多份offer，工资年年上涨，消费乐观</p><p>51:49 2011年辞职创业，从未想过经济下行的可能</p><p>55:38 “2019是过去十年最差的一年，也会是往后十年最好的一年”</p><p>58:08 疫情期间的挣扎：从积极应对到黯然离场</p><p>01:06:43 两代人的对比：以前想要自由，现在想要编制</p><br /><p>相关链接：</p><p><a href="https://bumingbai.net/2025/06/22/ep-156-jiecengguhua/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">EP-156 在阶层固化中挣扎的人们</a></p><p><a href="https://bumingbai.net/2025/06/28/ep-157-jiecengguhua/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">EP-157 在阶层固化中挣扎的小镇做题家</a></p><hr /><p style="color: grey; font-size: 0.75em;"> Hosted on Acast. See <a href="https://acast.com/privacy" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: grey;" target="_blank">acast.com/privacy</a> for more information.</p>

This year, we screened Wang Nanfu's documentary "Hooligan Sparrow," which was filmed in 2013 and recorded the protests of citizen activists such as Ye Haiyan and lawyer Wang Yu after the "Hainan principal's prostitution of young girls case," as well as the scene of civil society that year. Twelve years later, the lives of every character in the film have undergone tremendous changes with the collapse of Chinese civil society. We looked back with director Wang Nanfu on the active history of Chinese civil society, the thrilling moments during the filming process, what inevitable connection the birth of "Hooligan Sparrow" had with the social reality of that year, and how the possibility of "watching and changing China" was obliterated. How did this film affect Wang Nanfu's creative career? How did she face moments of discouragement, anger, and fear during filming? In an era of utter silence, how can we overcome fear and speak out? ps: The opening of this episode plays a clip from "Hooligan Sparrow." You can also watch the video version on YouTube: [https://youtu.be/3GwOwTCzGu8](https://youtu.be/3GwOwTCzGu8) Timeline: 00:00 "Hooligan Sparrow" clip 01:25 Why did you make this film? What are your feelings about watching the film again after 12 years? 04:44 What inevitable connection does the birth of "Hooligan Sparrow" have with the social reality at the time? 06:54 What changes have taken place in the lives of Ye Haiyan, Wang Yu, and their children? 13:25 As a documentary director whose original intention is to change reality, are there moments of discouragement in the face of reality? 16:02 Will you continue to film Chinese topics in the future? 17:50 Q&A: With the increasing prevalence of national surveillance, how can we live with ourselves or help the world? 21:34 How were the footages brought out of China? 23:27 Fear, shock, and anger are also the driving forces for making the film 27:12 Audience Q&A: Regrets about the film, improvements in China, how to enlighten the majority 30:33 Audience Q&A: How to dispel the fear of facing public power? Related Links [https://bumingbai.net/2024/11/08/ep-122-wangnanfu/](https://bumingbai.net/2024/11/08/ep-122-wangnanfu/) 《EP-122 Wang Nanfu: How do I view American democracy?》 [https://giloo.ist/episodes/5/](https://giloo.ist/episodes/5/) "Hooligan Sparrow" (aka "After Hainan") Hosted on Acast. See [https://acast.com/privacy](https://acast.com/privacy) for more information.

Original title: 【DC不明白节】王男栿：《流氓燕》之后，中国公民社会的坍塌与可能

Original description: <p>今年不明白节，我们放映了王男栿导演的纪录片《流氓燕》，这部拍摄于2013年的片子记录了“海南校长嫖宿幼女案”后，叶海燕、王宇律师等公民行动者的抗争，以及当年公民社会的景象。</p><br /><p>时隔12年，片中每一个人物的人生都随着中国公民社会的坍塌而发生了巨大的改变。我们和王男栿导演一起回望了中国公民社会活跃的历史，当年拍摄过程中惊心动魄的时刻，《流氓燕》的诞生和当年的社会现实有什么必然联系？“围观改变中国”的可能性是如何被磨灭的？这部影片如何影响了王男栿的创作生涯？她如何面对拍摄中的灰心、愤怒和恐惧时刻？在万籁俱寂的年代，我们如何才能战胜恐惧发出自己的声音。</p><br /><p>文字版：<a href="https://bit.ly/bmb-171-text" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://bit.ly/bmb-171-text</a></p><br /><p>ps：本期开头播放的是《流氓燕》片段，大家也可以到YouTube收看<a href="https://youtu.be/3GwOwTCzGu8" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">视频版本</a>。</p><br /><p>时间轴：</p><p>00:00 《流氓燕》片段</p><p>01:25 当年为什么拍这个电影？时隔12年再看电影是什么感受？</p><p>04:44《流氓燕》的诞生和当时的社会现实有什么必然联系？</p><p>06:54 叶海燕、王宇、以及她们的孩子后来的人生发生了什么变化？</p><p>13:25 一个初心是改变现实的纪录片导演，面对现实有没有灰心的时刻？</p><p>16:02 未来还会拍摄中国议题吗？</p><p>17:50 现场提问：全民监控越来越普遍，如何自处或济世？</p><p>21:34 当年的footage（录像带）是如何带出中国的？</p><p>23:27 恐惧、冲击和愤怒也是做出片子的动力</p><p>27:12 观众提问：片子的遗憾、中国的改善之处、如何启蒙大多数</p><p>30:33 观众提问：如何消解面对公权力的恐惧？</p><br /><p>相关链接</p><p><a href="https://bumingbai.net/2024/11/08/ep-122-wangnanfu/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">《EP-122 王男栿：我如何看待美国的民主？》</a></p><p><a href="https://giloo.ist/episodes/5/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">《流氓燕》（又名《海南之后》）Hooligan Sparrow</a></p><hr /><p style="color: grey; font-size: 0.75em;"> Hosted on Acast. See <a href="https://acast.com/privacy" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: grey;" target="_blank">acast.com/privacy</a> for more information.</p>

Why should we care about the fate of a bookstore? Last September, Jifeng Bookstore opened in Washington, D.C., awakening many people's memories of Shanghai Jifeng. Founded in 1997, Jifeng was one of the most influential independent bookstores in China, with eight stores at its peak. In 2018, Jifeng's last store in Shanghai was forced to close, and the bookstore's director, Yu Miao, experienced a long farewell, conflict, and pressure for 283 days. This is not only the story of one person and one bookstore. The ups and downs of Jifeng Bookstore in China over the past two decades reflect the fate of Chinese civil society. In this episode, we ask Yu Miao to talk about his experience from Shanghai to Washington: Why can't such a powerful government tolerate the existence of a bookstore? What price did he and his family pay after Jifeng closed? Why did he have the courage to reopen Jifeng in the United States six years later? One year after opening, what is the actual operating status of the bookstore behind the lively lectures, the endless media interviews, and the crowded crowds? Can overseas diaspora communities support an independent bookstore? **Timeline:** 01:17 The long farewell, confrontation, and conflict before the forced closure of Shanghai Jifeng Bookstore 07:12 Why can't such a powerful government tolerate the existence of a bookstore? 08:18 Yu Miao's closing speech: Ignorance and absurdity in huge scars 12:03 Losing domestic activity space, Yu Miao went to the United States to study, and his wife was border-controlled when she returned to China to visit relatives 17:00 Where does the motivation to reopen Jifeng in the United States come from? 20:22 Why Washington, D.C.? 24:29 Yu Miao's most memorable readers in the past year 28:30 Revealing the top five best-selling books of the past year! 31:59 Bookstore finances and operations 35:41 More than 80 events have been held! There will also be a Chinese film festival next 43:08 Photos from Shanghai and reader messages decorate DC Jifeng: Nostalgia or rebirth? 47:46 What does Yu Miao think of as a "crossing the scar" moment? 48:58 Guest recommended books and movies 53:10 The last two days of Shanghai Jifeng, the whole audience sang "Auld Lang Syne" Related links: Jifeng official website, welcome to sign up for film festivals and buy books: jfbooks.org "The Last Two Days of Jifeng Bookstore": https://youtu.be/mnBt59s3uXY?si=2_VluyIdC35Dd9Ag Jifeng Bookstore Lectures and Podcasts: https://youtube.com/channel/UCGOYsM0GJXbdrRydvXLl8vQ?si=L78SkrUjuamL2Lfi Guest recommendation: Deborah Tuerkheimer: Why We Believe the Victim Li Yifan: Kill Matt I Love You Yu Xinyan: Made in Ethiopia Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Original title: 从上海到华盛顿：季风书园与中国公民社会的覆灭与新生

Original description: <p>我们为什么要关注一家书店的命运？</p><br /><p>去年9月，季风书园在华盛顿开业，唤醒了许多人对上海季风的记忆。成立于1997年的季风曾是中国最具影响力的独立书店之一，巅峰时曾有8间店。2018年，季风在上海的最后一家门店被迫关闭，书店的负责人于淼经历了283天的漫长告别、冲突与压力。</p><br /><p>这不仅是一个人和一间书店的故事，季风书园在中国近二十年的起伏，折射出中国公民社会的命运。</p><br /><p>本期节目，我们请于淼讲述了他从上海到华盛顿的经历：为什么一个如此强大的政府容纳不下一间书店的存在？季风闭店之后，他和家人经历了什么样的代价？ 6年之后，他为什么有勇气在美国重开季风？开业一年，在热闹的讲座、络绎不绝的媒体采访和拥挤的人潮背后，书店的经营状况究竟如何？海外离散社群能托起一家独立书店吗？</p><br /><p>文字版：<a href="https://bit.ly/bmb-170-text" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://bit.ly/bmb-170-text</a></p><br /><p><strong>时间轴：</strong></p><p>01:17 上海季风书园被迫关闭前的漫长告别、对抗和冲突</p><p>07:12 为什么一个如此强大的政府容不下一间书店的存在？</p><p>08:18 于淼的闭店演讲：巨大伤疤里的无知和荒谬</p><p>12:03 失去国内活动空间、于淼赴美留学、妻子回国探亲被边控</p><p>17:00 在美国重开季风的动力源自哪里？</p><p>20:22 为什么是华盛顿？</p><p>24:29 过去一年，于淼印象深刻的读者</p><p>28:30 揭秘过去一年最畅销的五本书！</p><p>31:59 书店的财务与经营状况</p><p>35:41 已经做了80多场活动！接下来还有华语影展</p><p>43:08 来自上海的照片和读者留言装饰了DC季风：怀旧还是新生？</p><p>47:46 于淼心目中的“跨越伤疤”时刻是什么样的？</p><p>48:58 嘉宾推荐书与电影</p><p>53:10 上海季风的最后两日，全场合唱《友谊地久天长》</p><br /><p>相关链接：</p><p>季风官网，欢迎报名影展与购书：<a href="https://jfbooks.org/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">jfbooks.org</a></p><p>《季风书园的最后两天》：<a href="https://youtu.be/mnBt59s3uXY?si=2_VluyIdC35Dd9Ag" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://youtu.be/mnBt59s3uXY?si=2_VluyIdC35Dd9Ag</a></p><p>季风书园的讲座与播客：<a href="https://youtube.com/channel/UCGOYsM0GJXbdrRydvXLl8vQ?si=L78SkrUjuamL2Lfi" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://youtube.com/channel/UCGOYsM0GJXbdrRydvXLl8vQ?si=L78SkrUjuamL2Lfi</a></p><br /><p>嘉宾推荐：</p><p><a href="https://www.books.com.tw/products/CN17860471?srsltid=AfmBOoowVo3Kp4fVSdoGQSd-rVS4QotGqTix4hc2RsUeyT226Y0fn2qN" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">德博拉·陶克海默（Deborah Tuerkheimer）：《我们为何质疑受害者》</a></p><p><a href="https://www.chinaindiefilm.org/films/%E6%9D%80%E9%A9%AC%E7%89%B9%E6%88%91%E7%88%B1%E4%BD%A0/?lang=zh-hans" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">李一凡：《杀马特我爱你》</a></p><p><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eg1ZnwgkFtE" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">余心妍：《埃塞俄比亚制造》（Made in Ethiopia ）</a></p><hr /><p style="color: grey; font-size: 0.75em;"> Hosted on Acast. See <a href="https://acast.com/privacy" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: grey;" target="_blank">acast.com/privacy</a> for more information.</p>

这是第二届不明白节特辑的第一集。嘉宾查建英是文革之后的第一批大学生，80年代，她先后在北京大学、南卡罗来纳大学、哥伦比亚大学上学，1986年，查建英回到中国，但很快，充满理想和激情的八十年代终结在广场的坦克之下，查建英以决裂的姿态离开了中国。然而，她和中国的故事并没有就此划上句号。此后，她一次次回到中国，她以作家的身份观察中国的变迁。过去，她因为《弄潮儿》、《中国波普》、《八十年代访谈录》等书籍为人所知。最近，查建英发表了新的文章《火车：铁路旅行、流亡和生存的中国家族史》，文章描述国家暴力之下的家族命运故事。我们从她的新作《火车》谈起，她为什么选取“火车”作为意象贯穿家族史写作？她为什么选择“跳下火车”和“自绝于人民”？经历了文革、六四、新冠疫情之后，她如何看待自己和国家的关系、又如何思考”中国情结”这个问题？时间轴：01:47 查建英的扒火车往事，《火车》一文的缘起与“火车”的含义04:35 家族命运的开端：留法十年的外公1929年被“骗”回了中国12:30 Dongsheng阿姨：从目睹文革中的父母悲剧，到支持镇压天安门18:11 家族里的人如何看待哥哥查建国：因组建中国民主党被判刑9年21:19 “跳火车”的选择： “自绝于人民”，不被爱国话语绑架30:03 六四之后的幻灭、改国籍的过程、疫情记忆37:51 查建英对精英的失望41:03 谈写作：《国家公敌》和《国家公仆》，如何写熟悉的人？48:17 观众提问：家人还在国内，如何不审查自己？49:24 查建英吐槽妈宝男56:04 如何看待导师夏志清40年前的话：“太关注中国是一种局限”相关链接：《Trains: A Chinese Family History of Railway Journeys, Exile, and Survival》《China’s Bizarre Program to Keep Activists in Check》《国家公敌》（Enemy of the State）《国家公仆》（Servant of the State）

Original title: 【DC不明白节】查建英：我为何要自绝于人民、精英与妈宝男

Original description: <p>这是第二届不明白节特辑的第一集。</p><br /><p>嘉宾查建英是文革之后的第一批大学生，80年代，她先后在北京大学、南卡罗来纳大学、哥伦比亚大学上学，1986年，查建英回到中国，但很快，充满理想和激情的八十年代终结在广场的坦克之下，查建英以决裂的姿态离开了中国。</p><br /><p>然而，她和中国的故事并没有就此划上句号。此后，她一次次回到中国，她以作家的身份观察中国的变迁。过去，她因为《弄潮儿》、《中国波普》、《八十年代访谈录》等书籍为人所知。最近，查建英发表了新的文章《火车：铁路旅行、流亡和生存的中国家族史》，文章描述国家暴力之下的家族命运故事。</p><br /><p>我们从她的新作《火车》谈起，她为什么选取“火车”作为意象贯穿家族史写作？她为什么选择“跳下火车”和“自绝于人民”？经历了文革、六四、新冠疫情之后，她如何看待自己和国家的关系、又如何思考”中国情结”这个问题？</p><br /><p>文字版：<a href="https://bit.ly/bmb-169-text" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://bit.ly/bmb-169-text</a></p><br /><p><strong>时间轴：</strong></p><br /><p>01:47 查建英的扒火车往事，《火车》一文的缘起与“火车”的含义</p><p>04:35 家族命运的开端：留法十年的外公1929年被“骗”回了中国</p><p>12:30 Dongsheng阿姨：从目睹文革中的父母悲剧，到支持镇压天安门</p><p>18:11 家族里的人如何看待哥哥查建国：因组建中国民主党被判刑9年</p><p>21:19 “跳火车”的选择： “自绝于人民”，不被爱国话语绑架</p><p>30:03 六四之后的幻灭、改国籍的过程、疫情记忆</p><p>37:51 查建英对精英的失望</p><p>41:03 谈写作：《国家公敌》和《国家公仆》，如何写熟悉的人？</p><p>48:17 观众提问：家人还在国内，如何不审查自己？</p><p>49:24 查建英吐槽妈宝男</p><p>56:04 如何看待导师夏志清40年前的话：“太关注中国是一种局限”</p><br /><p>相关链接：</p><p><a href="https://www.chinafile.com/reporting-opinion/features/trains-chinese-family-history-of-railway-journeys-exile-and-survival" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">《Trains: A Chinese Family History of Railway Journeys, Exile, and Survival》</a></p><p><a href="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/12/24/chinas-bizarre-program-to-keep-activists-in-check" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">《China’s Bizarre Program to Keep Activists in Check》</a></p><p><a href="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2007/04/23/enemy-of-the-state" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">《国家公敌》（Enemy of the State）</a></p><p><a href="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2010/11/08/servant-of-the-state" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">《国家公仆》（Servant of the State）</a></p><hr /><p style="color: grey; font-size: 0.75em;"> Hosted on Acast. See <a href="https://acast.com/privacy" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: grey;" target="_blank">acast.com/privacy</a> for more information.</p>

In 1981, young Italian Lao An first came to China to study Chinese. China had just begun its reform and opening up. From 1986, Lao An worked for an Italian company in Hong Kong and Beijing. In 1999, he decided to resign and become an independent filmmaker, and since then he has had more wonderful experiences in China. The most praised of these is that he filmed the only interview documentary of Wang Xiaobo during his lifetime. Over the past four decades, China has undergone many changes, and a large number of foreigners have come and gone. Lao An stayed here. He married in China and had two children whose native language is Chinese. He travels, photographs, and lives in China. Along with China's urbanization, globalization, and economic take-off, Lao An has witnessed the chaotic moments of "countless old rules collapsing and new rules not yet established," and the unique beauty and cruelty in those chaos. Today, Lao An is an Italian with a Chinese green card. His new book "The Grumpy Little Dictionary" records his daily life and absurdity in China for more than 40 years. What crazy things has he experienced in China? What "Chinese characteristics" are there in his travels, photography, and life? How has he understood the changes in Chinese society over the past forty years? As a foreigner who still stays in China, how does he view China today? **Timeline:** 01:47 Yuan Li and Lao An are old friends 03:17 Lao An almost thought the book could not be published, "The road was completely blocked, and suddenly a road popped out beside it" 05:05 From "grumpy" to "not so grumpy", Lao An's change in concept 06:17 In 1978, why did Lao An decide to study Chinese? 09:59 Lao An's impression of China in the 1980s 14:08 In the era when foreigners needed "travel permits", Lao An "mixed" into Sanya 18:11 Lao An quit his high-paying job and decided to become an independent filmmaker 21:13 Lao An's documentary about Songzhuang, "Five+Five" 23:29 Lao An's Chinese driving past: driving a taxi, scaring friends to vomit 28:54 "China is like a huge driving school" 32:06 China's urbanization: homogenization, difficulty, and cruelty 36:08 "Rare animals", foreign guests, devils, foreigners 40:10 In 2023, Lao An returned to Italy, and the streets were "full of Chinese business" 44:57 China's image is getting worse and worse, why does Lao An still live in China? 45:59 Even with a Chinese green card, there are still inconveniences in life 51:18 Does Lao An think that the past China was more interesting? 54:08 In "The Grumpy Little Dictionary", what did the censored entries write? Related Links: [Lao An's "The Grumpy Little Dictionary"](https://a.co/d/1e4Rwsh) [Lao An's "At Ease"](https://book.douban.com/subject/35547859/) [Wang Xiaobo Documentary](https://youtu.be/TsowwLGCE6Y?feature=shared) [Songzhuang Documentary "Five+Five" mentioned in the podcast](https://movie.douban.com/subject/6601426/) Hosted on Acast. See [acast.com/privacy](https://acast.com/privacy) for more information.

Original title: 老安：一个意大利人对中国气呼呼的爱

Original description: <p>1981年，意大利青年老安第一次来到中国学习中文。当时的中国刚刚开始改革开放，1986年起，老安在香港和北京为意大利公司工作。1999年，他决定辞职，成为一名独立影像人，从此在中国有了更多奇妙的体验，其中最被称道的一件事是，他拍下过王小波生前唯一的访谈纪录片。</p><br /><p>过去四十年，中国发生了许许多多的变化，大量外国人来了又走了。老安留在了这里，他在中国结婚，有了两个以中文为母语的孩子。他在中国旅行、摄影、生活，伴随着中国的城镇化、全球化与经济腾飞，老安目睹了“无数旧规则瓦解、新规则尚未建立”的混乱时刻，和那些混乱里独特的美感与残酷。</p><br /><p>如今，老安是一个有中国绿卡的意大利人，他的新书《气呼呼的小词典》记录了他在中国生活40多年的日常与荒诞。他在中国有过哪些疯狂往事？他的旅游、摄影和生活里有哪些“中国特色”？四十多年来，他如何理解中国社会的变化？作为一个仍然留在中国的外国人，他又如何看待今天的中国？</p><br /><p><strong>文字版</strong>：<a href="https://bit.ly/bmb-168-text" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://bit.ly/bmb-168-text</a></p><br /><p><strong>时间轴：</strong></p><p>01:47 袁莉和老安是老朋友</p><p>03:17 老安差点以为书无法出版，“路全被堵死了，旁边突然窜出来一条路”</p><p>05:05 从“气呼呼”到“没那么气呼呼”，老安的观念变化</p><p>06:17 1978年，老安为什么决定学中文？</p><p>09:59 老安对80年代中国的印象</p><p>14:08 在外国人需要“旅行证”的年代，老安“混”进了三亚</p><p>18:11 老安辞掉高薪工作，决定去做独立影像人</p><p>21:13 老安关于宋庄的纪录片《五+五》</p><p>23:29 老安的中国开车往事：开过出租、吓吐过朋友</p><p>28:54 “中国像一个巨大的驾校”</p><p>32:06 中国的城镇化：同质化、艰难与残酷</p><p>36:08 ”稀有动物“、外宾、鬼子、老外</p><p>40:10 2023年，老安回到意大利，街上“全是中国的生意”</p><p>44:57 中国的形象越来越差，老安为什么还住在中国？</p><p>45:59 即使拿到中国绿卡，生活仍有不便之处</p><p>51:18 老安会觉得过去的中国更有意思吗？</p><p>54:08 《气呼呼的小词典》里，被审查的词条写了什么？</p><br /><p>相关链接：</p><p><a href="https://a.co/d/1e4Rwsh" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">老安《气呼呼的小词典》</a></p><p><a href="https://book.douban.com/subject/35547859/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">老安《稍息》</a></p><p><a href="https://youtu.be/TsowwLGCE6Y?feature=shared" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">王小波纪录片</a></p><p><a href="https://movie.douban.com/subject/6601426/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">播客提到的宋庄纪录片《五+五》</a></p><hr /><p style="color: grey; font-size: 0.75em;"> Hosted on Acast. See <a href="https://acast.com/privacy" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: grey;" target="_blank">acast.com/privacy</a> for more information.</p>

On August 30th, Eastern Time, the Unclear Podcast broadcast a live conversation with Qi Hong, the person involved in the Chongqing slogan projection incident. The next day, we conducted a supplementary interview with Qi Hong. In addition to the topics discussed in the live broadcast: Who is he? Why did he do this? How did he plan and complete this action that can be called "performance art"? This episode also adds more about his experiences of making a living and studying Buddhism in Beijing for 20 years, the novels that influenced him, and how he tried to influence people around him after awakening in recent years, until he took the step of public resistance. What Qi Hong did can be called performance art. At 10 pm on August 29th, huge slogans projected on the exterior wall of a building near Chongqing University suddenly appeared. The slogans read: "There will be a new China without the Communist Party," "Down with red fascism, overthrow the Communist Party's tyranny," "We want truth, not lies, we want freedom, not slavery, the tyrannical Communist Party must step down"... This projection protest lasted for more than 50 minutes before the police located the projection position and shut down the equipment. The projector also left a letter for the police in the hotel room, in which he said: "The reason for taking this step is also out of desperation. Who would want to be displaced if they could have a good life?" He reasoned with the police: "Maybe you are a beneficiary now, but one day you will definitely be a victim on this land." He also called on the police not to embarrass irrelevant personnel: "If it is absolutely necessary, you can also raise the muzzle a little higher." **This episode contains live broadcast content and subsequent additional interview content.** PS: The second Unclear Festival is less than a week away. You are welcome to purchase offline tickets and come to Washington to celebrate the festival with more than two hundred audiences: [https://zeffy.com/en-US/ticketing/2025-in-person](https://zeffy.com/en-US/ticketing/2025-in-person) Click to purchase online tickets and participate in live interaction: [https://www.zeffy.com/en-US/ticketing/2025-online](https://www.zeffy.com/en-US/ticketing/2025-online) You are also welcome to ask questions to the guests of the Unclear Festival: [https://bit.ly/bmbj2-ask-01](https://bit.ly/bmbj2-ask-01) Timeline: 01:10 Background of the Chongqing slogan projection incident 03:07 Qi Hong's current situation and why he did this? 04:20 Early life experiences: Dropping out of school at the age of 16 to work, encountering molestation and violence in a shelter 13:07 In Beijing: Worked in logistics, distributed leaflets, sales, and started a Taobao store in 2006 16:50 Does the identity of a Buddhist conflict with projecting anti-communist slogans? 18:38 Experienced the demolition of Xiangtang Village in Beijing in 2019, and returned to Chongqing in 2021 20:41 Resisted the epidemic prevention policies and participated in the construction of "Fangcang" (makeshift hospitals) 23:17 Inspired by the White Paper Movement and the Sitong Bridge incident 24:22 Qi Hong's aversion to hate education 28:11 How the projection action was planned 30:34 Qi Hong's equipment: laser engraving machine, projector, camera 32:43 Testing slogans: Exercise every day for good health, healthy life is full of joy 34:15 Originally planned to project on "September 3rd" (Victory over Japan Day), but worried about changes and therefore wanted to advance the date 36:48 How to plan the aftermath? Does his family know about this? 38:48 Why did he think of leaving a letter for the police? 41:59 How to remotely control the projection and monitoring? 45:49 Afterwards, Qi Hong's mother was questioned by the police 47:52 How does Qi Hong face online comments? 53:36 How to respond to "the action is to apply for political asylum"? 57:10 How to prevent such actions from being just a personal flash in the pan? 59:59 What does Qi Hong want to say to ordinary Chinese people? 01:01:16 Qi Hong's future plans 01:05:02 When did Qi Hong's "awakening" begin? 01:08:42 Supplementary interview content 01:08:53 Qi Hong's Moments fragments 01:10:17 Why did he close the Taobao store? Where did he go afterwards? 01:11:45 Qi Hong in Beijing: Problems with second-hand housing and children's education 01:14:25 Why did he think of using monitoring to record this action? 01:18:16 Responding to rumors: Was Qi Hong a "internet commentator"? 01:22:32 Moments on the day of the White Paper Movement and the "Dystopian Trilogy" 01:25:39 Qi Hong's hermit-like life 01:27:54 Past nationalist sentiments 01:32:25 Why did he finally take this step? Related links: The "Dystopian Trilogy" mentioned by Qi Hong in the interview: [https://book.douban.com/subject/1858576/](https://book.douban.com/subject/1858576/) "Nineteen Eighty-Four" [https://book.douban.com/subject/27002046/](https://book.douban.com/subject/27002046/) "Brave New World" [https://book.douban.com/subject/4908879/](https://book.douban.com/subject/4908879/) "Animal Farm" Hosted on Acast. See [acast.com/privacy](https://acast.com/privacy) for more information.

Original title: 对话重庆标语事件当事人戚洪（直播+后续采访）

Original description: <p><br /></p><p>美东时间8月30日晚，不明白播客直播对话了重庆标语投影事件当事人戚洪，次日，我们又和戚洪做了一次补充采访。除了直播中谈论过的话题：他是谁？他为什么做这件事？他如何策划和完成这一场堪称“行为艺术”的行动？本期节目还新增了更多他在北京居住20年间谋生和学佛的经历、影响他的小说、以及他近几年在觉醒后如何试图影响周边的人，直至走到公开反抗这一步。</p><br /><p>戚洪所做的事情堪称行为艺术。8月29日晚上10点，重庆大学附近的一栋大楼外墙，忽然出现投影的巨幅标语。标语上写道：“没有共产党才有新中国”“打倒红色法西斯，推翻共产党暴政”“不要谎言要真相，不要奴役要自由，暴政共产党下台”……</p><br /><p>这次投影抗议持续了50多分钟，最终警察锁定了投影位置才关闭设备。投影人还在酒店房间里给警察留下了一封信，他在信里说：“之所以走这一步，也是无可奈何，谁愿意颠沛流离有好日子不过呢？”他对警察晓之以理：“也许你现在是受益人，但在这片土地上有一天你一定是受害者。“他还呼吁警察不要为难无关人员：“实在迫不得已，也完全可以把枪口往上抬一点”。</p><br /><p><strong>本期节目包含直播内容和后续新增采访内容。</strong></p><br /><p><strong>文字版</strong>：<a href="https://bit.ly/bmb-167-text" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://bit.ly/bmb-167-text</a></p><br /><p>&nbsp;PS：第二届不明白节还有不到一周就要开始了，欢迎大家购买线下票，来到华盛顿现场与两百多名观众一起过节：<a href="https://zeffy.com/en-US/ticketing/2025-in-person" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://zeffy.com/en-US/ticketing/2025-in-person</a>&nbsp;</p><p>点击购买线上票，参与直播互动：<a href="https://www.zeffy.com/en-US/ticketing/2025-online" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://www.zeffy.com/en-US/ticketing/2025-online</a></p><p>也欢迎大家向不明白节的嘉宾们提问 ：<a href="https://bit.ly/bmbj2-ask-01" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://bit.ly/bmbj2-ask-01</a></p><br /><p>时间轴：</p><p>01:10 重庆标语投影事件的背景</p><p>03:07 戚洪的现状、以及他为什么要做这件事？</p><p>04:20 早年人生经历：16岁辍学打工、在收容所遭遇猥亵、暴力</p><p>13:07 在北京：做过后勤、发传单、推销，2006年开淘宝店创业</p><p>16:50 佛教徒身份与投影反共标语冲突吗？</p><p>18:38 2019年在北京经历香堂村拆迁，2021年回到重庆</p><p>20:41 对疫情政策抵触，参与过建“方舱”的工作</p><p>23:17 受到白纸运动和四通桥事件的鼓舞</p><p>24:22 戚洪对仇恨教育的厌恶</p><p>28:11 投影行动是如何策划的</p><p>30:34 戚洪的设备：激光雕刻机、投影仪、摄像头</p><p>32:43 测试标语：天天锻炼身体好，健康生活乐无穷</p><p>34:15 原计划“九三”当天投屏，担心变故因而要提前</p><p>36:48 如何策划后路？家人知道这件事吗？</p><p>38:48&nbsp;为什么想到留下一封给警察的信？</p><p>41:59 如何远程操控投影和监控？</p><p>45:49 事后，戚洪的母亲被警察问话</p><p>47:52 戚洪如何面对网络上的评论？</p><p>53:36 如何回应“行动是为了申请政治庇护“？</p><p>57:10 如何不让这样的行动只是个人的昙花一现？</p><p>59:59 戚洪想对普通中国人说什么？</p><p>01:01:16 戚洪未来的打算</p><p>01:05:02 戚洪的“觉醒”是从什么时候开始的？</p><p>01:08:42 补充采访内容</p><p>01:08:53 戚洪的朋友圈片段</p><p>01:10:17 为什么要关掉淘宝店？之后去哪了？</p><p>01:11:45 戚洪在北京：二手房、孩子读书面临的问题</p><p>01:14:25 为什么想到要用监控记录这场行动？</p><p>01:18:16 回应传言：戚洪当过网评员吗？</p><p>01:22:32 白纸当天的朋友圈与“反乌托邦三部曲”</p><p>01:25:39 戚洪如同隐士一样的生活</p><p>01:27:54 曾经的民族主义情绪</p><p>01:32:25 为什么最后会走出这一步？</p><br /><p>相关链接：</p><p>戚洪在采访中提到的“反乌托邦三部曲”：</p><p><a href="https://book.douban.com/subject/1858576/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">《一九八四》</a></p><p><a href="https://book.douban.com/subject/27002046/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">《美丽新世界》</a></p><p><a href="https://book.douban.com/subject/4908879/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">《动物农场》</a></p><hr /><p style="color: grey; font-size: 0.75em;"> Hosted on Acast. See <a href="https://acast.com/privacy" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: grey;" target="_blank">acast.com/privacy</a> for more information.</p>

In 2025, China's economy is in recession: unemployment, debt, and deflation are hitting one after another, but on the other hand, from DeepSeek, domestic chips to J-10 fighters, China seems to be at the forefront of the world in wave after wave of technology boom. Different from the "self-hi" of previous nationalists, the voice of praise for Chinese technology also comes from the United States, the opponent in the trade war. For example, expert testimony at U.S. congressional hearings believes that China has gained an advantage in biopharmaceuticals. A guest commentary in the New York Times commentary section also cited research data from an Australian think tank to prove that China is already leading in the field of technology. The guest of this podcast is Professor Xu Chenggang, a senior researcher at the Stanford Center for Chinese Economic and Institutional Studies. Professor Xu will lead us to re-examine the Sino-US technology competition. When observing and judging the Sino-US technology competition, what aspects should we focus on? How much of China's technological prosperity is real, and how much is illusory? Why can China control the industrial chain globally? Has China surpassed the United States in some technological fields? Should the United States impose a technology blockade on China? PS: The online ticket for the 2nd Do Not Understand Festival is officially open for registration! We will also give away a free online ticket to donors and paid subscribers of the Do Not Understand podcast, including new donations and subscriptions before September 1st. Thank you for your long-term support so that this program can continue. Click to directly purchase tickets and register for free ticket information: [https://www.zeffy.com/en-US/ticketing/2025-online](https://www.zeffy.com/en-US/ticketing/2025-online) Offline ticket purchase link: [https://zeffy.com/en-US/ticketing/2025-in-person](https://zeffy.com/en-US/ticketing/2025-in-person) **Timeline:** 03:21 Taking clinical trials of new drugs as an example, why China's biopharmaceutical advantages are affirmed 06:03 Why is China's technological strength called "me better" 09:27 The debate over stealing technology: what is most important in the industrial revolution 12:10 How to view China's leading data in paper publications and patent applications 17:20 Taking the Nobel Prize and the theory of relativity as examples, why top innovation cannot be measured by indicators 20:01 Why use commercial indicators to measure new quality productivity 26:59 Comparing today's Sino-US competition with the US-Soviet competition during the Cold War 30:44 Occupying the global supply chain with the power of the whole country 33:02 China's pioneering overseas enterprises lack technological competitiveness, but have strong control over the industrial chain 38:42 Taking Nvidia as an example, should the United States impose an AI chip embargo on China 41:41 Is there a solution to "Great Leap Forward" style repeated construction? 47:20 The special relationship between Chinese private enterprises and local industrial strategies 49:18 Why the Chinese government does not allow companies to go bankrupt 52:09 Will China's industrial policy distort the global market? 54:06 Guest recommendation Guest recommendation: [https://book.douban.com/subject/36350632/](https://book.douban.com/subject/36350632/) Chris Miller, "Chip War" [https://www.books.com.tw/products/0011017145?srsltid=AfmBOopTLOdqhffX5AYuHfIT7Knecm9i541NUMMeIXyri233gs2IWfao](https://www.books.com.tw/products/0011017145?srsltid=AfmBOopTLOdqhffX5AYuHfIT7Knecm9i541NUMMeIXyri233gs2IWfao) Shi Qintai, Chen Tianzhi, Wu Shumin, "From the Edge to the Core, How Taiwan's Semiconductor Became the Heart of the World" [https://www.books.com.tw/products/0011005571?srsltid=AfmBOoouY6LTs14fmlfmHJVm4T1PtkxS-c7j7X_NwO9cW489PFUJAYCA](https://www.books.com.tw/products/0011005571?srsltid=AfmBOoouY6LTs14fmlfmHJVm4T1PtkxS-c7j7X_NwO9cW489PFUJAYCA) "Morris Chang's Autobiography" [https://a.co/d/7sps0pO](https://a.co/d/7sps0pO) Xu Chenggang, "Institutional Gene: The Origin of Chinese Institutions and Totalitarian Institutions" Related links: [https://a.co/d/7OV1Csk](https://a.co/d/7OV1Csk) "Institutional Gene" English version [https://youtu.be/LZa0dmyWteE](https://youtu.be/LZa0dmyWteE) "EP-137 Xu Chenggang: Can DeepSeek and Private Enterprise Symposium Revitalize China's Economy?" Hosted on Acast. See [acast.com/privacy](https://acast.com/privacy) for more information.

Original title: 许成钢：中美科技竞争，中国要赢了吗？

Original description: <p>2025年，中国经济陷入低迷：失业、债务、通缩轮番袭来，但另一面从DeepSeek、国产芯片到歼十战机，在一波又一波的科技热潮中，中国似乎走在了世界前列。</p><br /><p>不同于以往民族主义者的“自嗨”，对中国技术赞扬的声音还来自于贸易战中的对手美国。比如美国国会听证会上的专家证词认为，中国已经取得生物制药的优势。纽约时报评论版一篇客座评论员文章也引述了澳大利亚某智库的研究数据来证明中国在技术领域已经领先。</p><br /><p>本期播客的嘉宾是斯坦福大学中国经济与制度研究中心高级研究员许成钢教授。许教授会带领我们重新审视中美科技竞争，在观察判断中美科技竞争时，我们应该把注意力放在哪些方面？中国科技的繁盛景象有多少是真实的，又有多少是虚幻的？为什么中国能在全球范围内控制产业链？中国是否在一些技术领域已经超越了美国？美国应该对中国实行技术封锁吗？</p><br /><p>文字版：<a href="https://bit.ly/bmb-166-text" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://bit.ly/bmb-166-text</a></p><br /><p>PS：第二届不明白节线上票正式开放报名！我们也将为不明白播客的捐赠人及付费订阅听众免费赠送一张线上票，包含9月1日前的新增捐赠及订阅，感谢大家的长期支持，使这个节目可以一直做下去。点击即可直接购票、登记赠票信息：<a href="https://www.zeffy.com/en-US/ticketing/2025-online" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://www.zeffy.com/en-US/ticketing/2025-online</a></p><p>线下票购买链接：<a href="https://zeffy.com/en-US/ticketing/2025-in-person" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://zeffy.com/en-US/ticketing/2025-in-person</a></p><br /><p><strong>时间轴：</strong></p><p>03:21 以新药的临床实验为例，为什么中国生物制药优势被肯定</p><p>06:03 为什么说中国科技实力是“me better”</p><p>09:27 偷技术的争论：产业革命中最重要的是什么</p><p>12:10 如何看待中国在论文发表和专利申请上的数据领先</p><p>17:20 以诺贝尔奖和相对论为例，为什么顶尖创新无法用指标衡量</p><p>20:01 为什么要用商业指标来衡量新质生产力</p><p>26:59 对比今天的中美竞争和冷战时期的美苏竞争</p><p>30:44 以举国之力占领全球供应链</p><p>33:02 中国的前沿出海企业缺乏科技竞争力，但对产业链的掌控力很强</p><p>38:42 以英伟达为例，美国应该对中国进行AI芯片禁运吗</p><p>41:41 “大跃进”式重复建设有解吗？</p><p>47:20 中国私有企业和地方产业战略的特殊关系</p><p>49:18 为什么中国政府不允许企业破产</p><p>52:09 中国的产业政策会扭曲全球市场吗</p><p>54:06 嘉宾推荐</p><br /><p>嘉宾推荐：</p><p><a href="https://book.douban.com/subject/36350632/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">克里斯·米勒《芯片战争》</a></p><p><a href="https://www.books.com.tw/products/0011017145?srsltid=AfmBOopTLOdqhffX5AYuHfIT7Knecm9i541NUMMeIXyri233gs2IWfao" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">史钦泰、 陈添枝,、吴淑敏《从边缘到核心，台湾半导体如何成为世界的心脏》</a></p><p><a href="https://www.books.com.tw/products/0011005571?srsltid=AfmBOoouY6LTs14fmlfmHJVm4T1PtkxS-c7j7X_NwO9cW489PFUJAYCA" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">《张忠谋自传》</a></p><p><a href="https://a.co/d/7sps0pO" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">许成钢《制度基因──中国制度与极权主义制度的起源》</a></p><br /><p>相关链接：</p><p><a href="https://a.co/d/7OV1Csk" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">《制度基因》英文版</a></p><p><a href="https://youtu.be/LZa0dmyWteE" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">《EP-137 许成钢：DeepSeek、民企座谈会能否重振中国经济？》</a></p><hr /><p style="color: grey; font-size: 0.75em;"> Hosted on Acast. See <a href="https://acast.com/privacy" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: grey;" target="_blank">acast.com/privacy</a> for more information.</p>

From Xi Jinping's purges, succession issues, to US-China technology competition, we discuss some of the most noteworthy topics with renowned historian Professor Stephen Kotkin. Professor Kotkin is a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and a leading scholar on the Soviet Union and Stalin. He is the author of the two-volume "Stalin" biography and is currently writing the third volume. His research on Stalin has reshaped our understanding of the operating logic of Leninist regimes. His research extends beyond the Soviet Union to global authoritarianism and increasingly focuses on contemporary China. In this episode, Professor Kotkin explains why he says Stalin, not Mao Zedong, is the ultimate model of a dictator, why Hitler faced multiple assassination attempts while Stalin did not, how to understand Xi Jinping's current purges from Stalin's purges in the 1930s, what elite dissatisfaction means for Leninist totalitarian regimes, and why Stalin, Mao Zedong, and Xi Jinping are unwilling to appoint successors, among many other questions. This is the first time Unclear Podcast has recorded a program in English. On YouTube, we have carefully prepared Chinese subtitles for our listeners. Click here: [https://youtu.be/WMb7y1JIgUA](https://youtu.be/WMb7y1JIgUA) We believe that Professor Kotkin's research is essential for understanding contemporary China. PS: Registration for the second Unclear Festival online ticket is now officially open! We will also give away a free online ticket to donors and paid subscribers of the Unclear Podcast, including new donations and subscriptions before September 1st. Thank you for your long-term support, which allows this program to continue. Click to purchase tickets or register for free tickets: [https://www.zeffy.com/en-US/ticketing/2025-online](https://www.zeffy.com/en-US/ticketing/2025-online) Offline ticket purchase link: [https://zeffy.com/en-US/ticketing/2025-in-person](https://zeffy.com/en-US/ticketing/2025-in-person) **Timeline:** 02:43 Why is Stalin, not Mao Zedong, the Gold Standard of dictators? 08:00 Does Stalin's rise help to understand Xi Jinping? 12:54 Did Xi Jinping intend to become a dictator from the start? 14:10 The relationship between the Communist Party and private enterprises 18:06 "You can't be half a communist, just like you can't be half pregnant" 22:14 Two things learned at the Central Party School: the rise of the East and the fall of the West, and the collapse of the Soviet Union 24:57 The incompatibility of Leninist regimes with political reform 26:29 Similarities between Xi Jinping's purges and Stalin's purges 30:44 Xi Jinping's dilemma in a huge system: even close aides can be a threat 38:39 Limitations of Xi Jinping's power in daily affairs or policy issues 39:34 Why Hitler faced multiple assassination attempts while Stalin did not 45:14 The biggest weakness of the Xi regime: elite doubts 49:50 The unexpected revealing effect of the Zero-COVID policy on ordinary Chinese people 52:39 Are CIA recruitment ads for CCP officials effective? 54:50 Taking Confucius Institutes as an example, how to respond to the CCP's challenges in soft power 59:50 How to respond to current US immigration and economic policies 1:09:57 Technology showdown: Lessons from the US-Soviet Cold War and a comparison of the technological strength of the Soviet Union and China 1:19:00 Can technological competition solve the legitimacy and fragility of the regime? 1:28:50 The Taiwan issue and Xi Jinping's considerations 1:41:50 Will Xi Jinping appoint a successor? 1:50:01 We must prepare for Xi Jinping to continue in power for 20 or even 25 years 1:52:30 "In an unfree system, you can still live a free life" 2:00:10 Guest recommendations Guest Recommendations: [https://book.douban.com/subject/2254651/](https://book.douban.com/subject/2254651/) Elias Canetti 《Auto-da-Fé》 [https://www.ucpress.edu/books/ideology-and-organization-in-communist-china/paper](https://www.ucpress.edu/books/ideology-and-organization-in-communist-china/paper) Franz Schurmann《Ideology and Organization in Communist China》 [https://www.sup.org/books/history/partys-interests-come-first](https://www.sup.org/books/history/partys-interests-come-first) Tang Zhixue 《The Party's Interests Come First》 (Biography of Xi Zhongxun) Related Links: [https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/299269/stalin-by-stephen-kotkin/](https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/299269/stalin-by-stephen-kotkin/) 《Stalin: Paradoxes of Power, 1878-1928》 [https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/529319/stalin-by-stephen-kotkin/](https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/529319/stalin-by-stephen-kotkin/) 《Stalin: Waiting for Hitler, 1929-1941》 Hosted on Acast. See [https://acast.com/privacy](https://acast.com/privacy) for more information.

Original title: Stephen Kotkin：从斯大林的大清洗看今天的习近平

Original description: <p>从习近平的清洗、接班人问题、到中美技术竞争，我们和著名历史学家Stephen Kotkin科特金教授讨论了当下最值得关注的一些话题。&nbsp;</p><br /><p>科特金教授是胡佛研究所高级研究员，也是研究苏联和斯大林最顶尖的学者。他是两卷本《斯大林传》的作者，正在撰写第三卷。他对斯大林的研究重塑了我们对列宁主义政权运行逻辑的理解。他的研究超越了苏联，延伸到全球威权主义，并越来越关注当代中国。&nbsp;</p><br /><p>在这期节目里，科特金教授解释了他为什么说斯大林而不是毛泽东是独裁者的最高典范，为什么希特勒多次遭遇暗杀而斯大林却没有，如何从斯大林30年代的大清洗来理解习近平眼下的清洗，精英阶层的不满对于列宁主义极权政权意味着什么，为什么斯大林、毛泽东和习近平都不愿指定接班人等很多问题。&nbsp;</p><br /><p>这是不明白播客首次用英文录制节目，在YouTube上，我们为听众朋友们精心准备了中文字幕。&nbsp;点击直达：<a href="https://youtu.be/WMb7y1JIgUA" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://youtu.be/WMb7y1JIgUA</a></p><br /><p>我们相信，科特金教授的研究对于理解当下的中国至关重要。</p><br /><p>PS：第二届不明白节线上票正式开放报名！我们也将为不明白播客的捐赠人及付费订阅听众免费赠送一张线上票，包含9月1日前的新增捐赠及订阅，感谢大家的长期支持，使这个节目可以一直做下去。点击即可直接购票、登记赠票信息：<a href="https://www.zeffy.com/en-US/ticketing/2025-online" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://www.zeffy.com/en-US/ticketing/2025-online</a></p><br /><p>线下票购买链接：<a href="https://zeffy.com/en-US/ticketing/2025-in-person" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://zeffy.com/en-US/ticketing/2025-in-person</a>&nbsp;</p><br /><p>文字版：<a href="https://bit.ly/bmb-165-text" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://bit.ly/bmb-165-text</a></p><br /><p><strong>时间轴：</strong></p><p>02:43 为什么斯大林而不是毛泽东是独裁者的最高典范Gold Standard？</p><p>08:00 斯大林的崛起轨迹是否有助于理解习近平？</p><p>12:54 习近平一上台就打算好了做独裁者吗？</p><p>14:10 共产党和私营企业的关系</p><p>18:06 “你不可能只是半个共产政权，就好像你不可能是半个孕妇”</p><p>22:14 中央党校学习两件事：东升西降与苏联倒台</p><p>24:57 列宁主义政权与政治改革的不兼容性</p><p>26:29 习近平清洗和斯大林清洗的相似之处</p><p>30:44习近平在庞大系统里的困境：亲信也可能是威胁</p><p>38:39 习近平在日常事务或政策问题上的权力局限</p><p>39:34 为什么希特勒多次遭遇暗杀而斯大林却没有</p><p>45:14 习政权最大弱点：精英阶层的疑虑</p><p>49:50 清零政策意外对普通中国人的揭示作用</p><p>52:39 中情局招募中共官员的广告是否有效</p><p>54:50 以孔子学院为例，如何应对中共在软实力上的挑战</p><p>59:50 如何回应美国目前的移民和经济政策</p><p>1:09:57 科技对决：美苏冷战的教训及苏联与中国技术实力的比较</p><p>1:19:00 科技竞争可以解决政权合法性及统治的脆弱性吗？</p><p>1:28:50 台湾问题与习近平的考量</p><p>1:41:50 习近平会指定继承者吗？</p><p>1:50:01 我们要为习近平继续执政20年甚至25年做好准备</p><p>1:52:30 “在不自由的体制下，依然能活出自由的人生”</p><p>2:00:10 嘉宾推荐&nbsp;</p><br /><p>嘉宾推荐：</p><p><a href="https://book.douban.com/subject/2254651/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Elias Canetti 《Auto-da-Fé》</a></p><p><a href="https://www.ucpress.edu/books/ideology-and-organization-in-communist-china/paper" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Franz Schurmann《Ideology and Organization in Communist China》</a></p><p><a href="https://www.sup.org/books/history/partys-interests-come-first" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">唐志学《The Party's Interests Come First》（习仲勋传）</a></p><br /><p>相关链接：</p><p><a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/299269/stalin-by-stephen-kotkin/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">《斯大林传第一卷——权力的悖论 1878-1928》</a></p><p><a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/529319/stalin-by-stephen-kotkin/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">《斯大林传第二卷——等待希特勒 1929-1941》</a>&nbsp;</p><hr /><p style="color: grey; font-size: 0.75em;"> Hosted on Acast. See <a href="https://acast.com/privacy" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: grey;" target="_blank">acast.com/privacy</a> for more information.</p>

In April-July this year, four well-known entrepreneurs, Bi Guangjun, Liu Wenchao, Zeng Yuzhou, and Wang Linpeng, died unnaturally one after another. From January to July this year, at least 19 actual controllers, chairmen, or senior executives of listed companies have been investigated by procuratorial organs with "retention" measures. Among them is Wang Linpeng, chairman of Easyhome (formerly Beijing Easyhome) who just passed away - he was detained three times, and only four days after his last detention was lifted, he suddenly fell to his death. Looking back at the past 5 years, from the Ren Zhiqiang case, the Sun Dawu case, the so-called crackdown on organized crime, to the long-distance fishing targeting entrepreneurs, to today's entrepreneur bankruptcies, debts, detentions, imprisonments, and suicides, the survival environment of private entrepreneurs continues to deteriorate. This episode's guest, Wu Lei, is a well-known Chinese criminal defense lawyer who has defended many entrepreneurs' cases. In 2019, he was retaliated against by the government and had his lawyer's license revoked, but he has been working behind the scenes to protect the rights of private entrepreneurs. In Wu Lei's career experience, what have Chinese private entrepreneurs experienced in recent years? In addition to the crackdown on organized crime and long-distance fishing, what other unknown case-handling models are there? How does he view the experiences of these entrepreneurs? Why does he say entrepreneurs are "naive and childish"? Wu Lei talked about many unreported cases. As a lawyer, in a situation where the rule of law is destroyed and the parties and their families are threatened, why does Wu Lei still insist that judicial defense is important? In an environment where political will outweighs legal will, what else can entrepreneurs do? PS: The 2nd "Don't Understand" Festival is coming! On September 6th, listeners are welcome to come to Washington, D.C. We will spend a day reviewing the road we have traveled, reflecting on the reality we are in, and imagining the possibilities of the future through documentary screenings, crosstalk performances, and live conversations. Click the link to register now: [https://zeffy.com/en-US/ticketing/2025-in-person](https://zeffy.com/en-US/ticketing/2025-in-person) **Timeline**: 00:00 A series of entrepreneur suicides and detentions 02:19 Wu Lei's career experience, "not surprised by all this" 04:23 What is retention? "Both 'Shuanggui' and retention have been abused" 07:10 The environment of the retention center, "comparable to a black jail" 10:54 How to view the "original sin" problem of entrepreneurs 14:35 Timeline of the deteriorating survival environment for private entrepreneurs 16:54 The relationship between the crackdown on organized crime and the crackdown on entrepreneurs 19:17 The Sun Dawu case as a turning point: the exodus of entrepreneurs, or leaning towards the central government 24:35 The "naivety and childishness" of entrepreneurs: the desire to serve the country through industry and ignorance of real risks 29:17 The "fishing" wave of young entrepreneurs: start-ups become fiscal prey. 31:56 Case-handling models Wu Lei has seen in his legal career: forcing entrepreneurs to fabricate bribery facts 37:35 Are entrepreneurs in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou more at ease? 42:10 How to understand the attitude of entrepreneurs' families towards lawyers? 45:16 Under judicial injustice, the market for brave and serious lawyers is growing 47:27 Should wrongful convictions be made public? The game of bribery vs. defense 52:38 Wu Lei's recommendations **Cases and people mentioned in this podcast**: Sun Dawu case: [https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%AD%99%E5%A4%A7%E5%8D%88](https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%AD%99%E5%A4%A7%E5%8D%88) Entrepreneur Ren Zhiqiang: [https://zh.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E4%BB%BB%E5%BF%97%E5%BC%BA](https://zh.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E4%BB%BB%E5%BF%97%E5%BC%BA) Zhang Dewu case of Xiangda Group: [https://china.caixin.com/2023-01-04/101985224.html](https://china.caixin.com/2023-01-04/101985224.html) Real Kung Fu Cai Dabiao case: [https://other.caixin.com/2013-12-13/100617471.html](https://other.caixin.com/2013-12-13/100617471.html) The gang-related case involving Wu Lei's client Lin Feng: [https://www.spp.gov.cn/spp/zhuanlan/201811/t20181101_397244.shtml](https://www.spp.gov.cn/spp/zhuanlan/201811/t20181101_397244.shtml) Lawyer Wang Quanzhang: [https://zh.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E7%8E%8B%E5%85%A8%E7%92%8B](https://zh.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E7%8E%8B%E5%85%A8%E7%92%8B) Hosted on Acast. See [acast.com/privacy](https://acast.com/privacy) for more information.

Original title: 伍雷：民营企业家接连自杀背后

Original description: <p>今年4月-7月，毕光钧、刘文超、曾育周、汪林朋四位知名企业家接连非自然死亡。今年1-7月，已有至少19位上市公司的实际控制人、董事长或高管被检察机关以“留置”措施调查。其中就包括刚刚去世的居然智家（前居然之家）董事长汪林朋——他被留置过三次，在最后一次留置被解除仅四天后，突然坠楼去世。</p><br /><p>回顾过去5年，从任志强案、孙大午案、所谓的扫黑除恶打击有组织犯罪、到针对企业家的远洋捕捞，到今天的企业家破产、负债、被留置、坐牢、自杀。民营企业家的生存环境不断恶化。</p><br /><p>本期节目的嘉宾伍雷是中国知名的刑辩律师，他为不少企业家的案件辩护过。2019年，他被政府打击报复，被吊销了律师执照，但一直在幕后为民营企业家维权出谋划策。在伍雷的从业经历里，中国民营企业家这些年都经历了什么？除了扫黑除恶、远洋捕捞、还有哪些不为人知的办案模式？</p><br /><p>他又如何看待这些企业家的遭遇？他为什么说企业家们“天真而又幼稚”？伍雷谈到了许多未被报道过的案件。作为律师，在法治被破坏殆尽、当事人及家属被威胁的状况下，伍雷为什么仍然坚持司法辩护是重要的？在政治意志大于法律意志的环境里，企业家还能做什么？</p><br /><p>PS：第二届不明白节来啦！9月6日，欢迎听众朋友们来到华盛顿，我们将用一天的时间，透过纪录片放映、相声表演与现场对谈，回顾我们来时的路，思考我们身处的现实，也共同想象未来的可能。点击链接立即报名：<a href="https://zeffy.com/en-US/ticketing/2025-in-person" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://zeffy.com/en-US/ticketing/2025-in-person</a></p><br /><p>文字版：<a href="https://bit.ly/bmb-164-text" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://bit.ly/bmb-164-text</a></p><br /><p><strong>时间轴</strong>：</p><p>00:00 一系列的企业家自杀和被留置事件</p><p>02:19 伍雷的从业经历，“对这一切并不吃惊”</p><p>04:23 被留置是怎么回事？“不管是双规还是留置，都被滥用了”</p><p>07:10 留置中心环境，“堪比黑监狱”</p><p>10:54 如何看待企业家的“原罪”问题</p><p>14:35 民营企业家生存环境恶化的时间线</p><p>16:54 扫黑除恶运动与打击企业家的关系</p><p>19:17 孙大午案作为转折点：企业家的润潮，或向中央靠拢</p><p>24:35 企业家的“天真与幼稚”：产业报国的愿望与对现实风险的无知</p><p>29:17 年轻的创业者被“捕捞”潮：创业公司成为财政猎物。</p><p>31:56 伍雷律师生涯见过的办案模式：逼迫企业家编造行贿事实</p><p>37:35 北上广的企业家会安心一点吗？</p><p>42:10 如何理解企业家的家属对律师的态度？</p><p>45:16 司法不公之下，勇敢认真的律师的市场越来越大</p><p>47:27 冤案到底要不要公开？行贿vs 辩护的博弈</p><p>52:38 伍雷的推荐</p><br /><p><strong>嘉宾推荐：</strong></p><p><a href="https://bit.ly/164-ngssl" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">杨小凯《牛鬼蛇神录》</a></p><p><a href="https://a.co/d/5FFoTG4" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">许成钢《制度基因》</a></p><p><a href="https://movie.douban.com/subject/19899628/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">电影《南营洞1985》郑智泳</a></p><p><a href="https://movie.douban.com/subject/21937445/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">电影《辩护人》杨宇硕</a></p><br /><p><strong>本期播客谈到的案件和人物</strong>：</p><p>孙大午案：<a href="https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%AD%99%E5%A4%A7%E5%8D%88" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/孙大午</a></p><p>企业家任志强：<a href="https://zh.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E4%BB%BB%E5%BF%97%E5%BC%BA" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://zh.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/任志强</a></p><p>襄大集团张德武案：<a href="https://china.caixin.com/2023-01-04/101985224.html" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://china.caixin.com/2023-01-04/101985224.html</a></p><p>真功夫蔡达标案：<a href="https://other.caixin.com/2013-12-13/100617471.html" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://other.caixin.com/2013-12-13/100617471.html</a></p><p>伍雷律师的当事人林风牵连的涉黑案：<a href="https://www.spp.gov.cn/spp/zhuanlan/201811/t20181101_397244.shtml" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://www.spp.gov.cn/spp/zhuanlan/201811/t20181101_397244.shtml</a></p><p>王全璋律师：<a href="https://zh.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E7%8E%8B%E5%85%A8%E7%92%8B" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://zh.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/王全璋</a></p><hr /><p style="color: grey; font-size: 0.75em;"> Hosted on Acast. See <a href="https://acast.com/privacy" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: grey;" target="_blank">acast.com/privacy</a> for more information.</p>

The Jiange street protests in Sichuan reignited hopes for resistance after a long absence, stemming from school bullying and culminating in government bullying of citizens, where everyone is vulnerable. Under strict censorship, people urgently want to know: What happened in Jiange? Why did school bullying escalate into the largest offline protest since the White Paper Movement in just a few days? In a live broadcast, Yuan Li and guests, Twitter blogger "Teacher Li Isn't Your Teacher" and YouTube blogger "World Bitter Tea" host Li Houchen, discussed concerning issues in the Jiange incident: What does the crudeness and failure of grassroots governance indicate? How did people spontaneously "charge the tower" to show support under information control in the Jiange incident? Is there a connection between the Jiange protests and the current economic recession, and the large number of unemployed young and middle-aged people returning to their hometowns? How should we understand such protests? Concerned listeners about China's reality and future also raised many good questions as always: Will there be follow-up to such protests? What can ordinary people do that is safe and effective? And, in a high-pressure environment, where can those awakened courage go? PS: The 2nd Bumingbai Festival is coming! On September 6th, listeners are welcome to Washington, D.C. We will spend a day reviewing our journey, reflecting on the reality we are in, and imagining the possibilities of the future through documentary screenings, crosstalk performances, and live conversations. Click the link to register now: https://zeffy.com/en-US/ticketing/2025-in-person Time stamps: 01:52 Teacher Li recaps the timeline of the Jiange incident 10:37 Teacher Li's three most memorable scenes: police recording with iPhones, questioning before violence, fleeing crowds 12:52 Li Houchen analyzes global youth movement patterns and China's unique parent protest wave 18:24 Offline protests have occurred from time to time after the White Paper Movement - Teacher Li is not surprised 22:19 The Jiange government's amateur performance: lack of communication skills, no contingency plans, baton clearing 25:22 How the Jiange's grassroots governance capabilities were destroyed: officialdom earthquakes, epidemic prevention promotions 31:59 With over 100 million views and spontaneous rushes, is information control gradually failing? 36:55 Li Houchen's pessimism: Will the social impact of group incidents weaken as technological means upgrade? 40:28 The connection between the reality of economic recession and unemployment and protests 48:27 Why Jiange? 54:43 Courage to resist has emerged, but all hope cannot be placed on individual courage 01:01:22 Teacher Li responds to "Are overseas efforts useful?": Otherwise why would the firewall exist? 01:06:05 Responding to listeners' sense of powerlessness 01:16:50 Is the "Bangladesh model" repeatedly mentioned in the Jiange incident effective? 01:19:37 Doxing police and information leakage from the public security system 01:23:07 Audience question: How to safely spread information within the Great Firewall 01:25:55 When "Long Live Chairman Mao" and "Give Me Democracy" appear at the same protest site 01:34:00 The national anthem and the Internationale, the accumulation of civil society is a process 01:37:24 What can we do in the future? Related links: Teacher Li Isn't Your Teacher 《Jiangyou - Police crack down on peaceful demonstration by citizens》https://youtu.be/k3gNe-1HUrA?feature=shared FearNation World Bitter Tea 《E181 White Paper Witness, Comparing Shanghai and Jiange Protests and Clearances, Explaining How Xi Jinping Destroys Grassroots Governance Capabilities》https://youtu.be/-6TeTXWL0_s?feature=shared Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Original title: 江油事件：人们为何走上街头？

Original description: <p>发生在四川江油的街头大规模抗议，久违地燃起了人们对反抗的希望。它始于校园霸凌，终于政府霸凌公民。在这个国家，每个人都是弱势的。</p><br /><p>在严密的封锁下，人们迫切想知道：江油发生了什么？为什么一场校园霸凌，能在几天内演变成白纸运动以来最大规模的线下抗议？</p><br /><p>在直播中，袁莉和两位嘉宾：推特博主“李老师不是李老师”、油管博主“世界苦茶”主理人李厚辰，一起讨论了江油事件中令人关心的问题：基层治理的粗暴与失效说明了什么？在江油事件中，人们如何在信息管控下自发“冲塔”声援？江油的抗议和当下的经济萧条、大量中青年失业返乡有没有关系？我们应该如何理解这样的抗议现场？</p><br /><p>关心中国现实与未来的听众们也一如既往提出了很多很好的问题：这样的抗议会不会有后续？普通人能做些什么才是安全又有效的？以及，在高压环境下，那些被唤醒的勇气，还能去往哪里？</p><br /><p><strong>文字版：</strong><a href="https://bit.ly/bmb-163-text" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://bit.ly/bmb-163-text</a></p><br /><p>&nbsp;PS：第二届不明白节来啦！9月6日，欢迎听众朋友们来到华盛顿，我们将用一天的时间，透过纪录片放映、相声表演与现场对谈，回顾我们来时的路，思考我们身处的现实，也共同想象未来的可能。点击链接立即报名：<a href="https://zeffy.com/en-US/ticketing/2025-in-person" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://zeffy.com/en-US/ticketing/2025-in-person</a>&nbsp;</p><br /><p><strong>时间轴：</strong></p><p>01:52 李老师复盘江油事件时间线</p><p>10:37 李老师印象最深的三个画面：用苹果手机录像的警察、暴力前的质问、逃散的人群</p><p>12:52 李厚辰分析全球青年运动模式和中国独特的家长抗议浪潮</p><p>18:24 白纸之后，线下抗议时有发生——李老师并不感到惊讶</p><p>22:19 江油市政府的草台表现：缺乏沟通的艺术、没有预案、甩棍清场</p><p>25:22 江油的基层治理能力如何被摧毁：官场地震，防疫提拔</p><p>31:59 过亿的浏览量和自发的冲他，信息管控是否在逐渐失效</p><p>36:55 李厚辰的悲观：群体事件对社会影响是否会随着技术手段升级而减弱</p><p>40:28 经济萧条失业的现实与抗议的关联</p><p>48:27 为什么是江油？</p><p>54:43 反抗的勇气出现了，但是不能把全部的希望寄托在个体的勇气上</p><p>01:01:22 李老师回应“海外的努力有用吗”：不然为什么防火墙会存在？</p><p>01:06:05 回应听众的现实无力感</p><p>01:16:50 江油事件中反复被提起的“孟加拉模式”有效吗？</p><p>01:19:37 开盒警擦与公安系统的信息外泄</p><p>01:23:07 观众提问:如何在墙内安全传播信息</p><p>01:25:55 当“毛泽东万岁”与“还我民主”出现在同一个抗议现场</p><p>01:34:00 国歌和国际歌，公民社会的积累是一个过程</p><p>01:37:24 未来，我们还能做什么？</p><br /><p><br /></p><p>相关链接：</p><p>李老师不是你老师<a href="https://youtu.be/k3gNe-1HUrA?feature=shared" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">《Jiangyou - Police crack down on peaceful demonstration by citizens》</a></p><p>FearNation 世界苦茶<a href="https://youtu.be/-6TeTXWL0_s?feature=shared" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">《E181 白纸亲历者, 对比上海与江油抗议与清场, 说明习近平如何摧毁基层治理能力》</a></p><hr /><p style="color: grey; font-size: 0.75em;"> Hosted on Acast. See <a href="https://acast.com/privacy" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: grey;" target="_blank">acast.com/privacy</a> for more information.</p>

Over the past six months, various rumors about the Chinese high-level political situation have sprung up. For example, Xi Jinping disappeared for 14 days due to health problems, Crown Prince Hu Chunhua was suspected of being reused again, and former Standing Committee member Wang Yang was going to take over... The "listening to the bed" community on YouTube and Twitter has always been very active on the topic of the top CCP leadership, but this time, including former US national security advisors, former diplomats, and some professional think tanks, have rarely joined in the interpretation and analysis. All of these have stirred up political imagination at home and abroad: Has Xi Jinping really lost power? Is the CCP really undergoing a power transition? In this episode, you will hear the most interesting and complex political rumors. The guest is Professor Wu Guoguang, a senior researcher at the Stanford Center for Chinese Economy and Institutions. Wu Guoguang entered the office of the CCP Central Committee's Political System Reform Research Group in 1986 and participated in the research and formulation of political reform policies before and after the 13th National Congress of the CCP. As a researcher who has left the system, how does he view and study these political rumors? How to rationally analyze the CCP's top-level politics? But compared to the truth of the rumors, the more important question is how should people survive in a highly opaque political system? Wu Guoguang mentioned that over the years, as a researcher studying China, the most important thing is to admit what he "knows" and "doesn't know." How to identify rumors, how to honestly face one's own "ignorance," and how not to fall into the illusion of "opium smoking"? This is a subject that every Chinese person must face. PS: The second Bumingbai Festival is coming! On September 6, listeners are welcome to come to Washington. We will use a day to review the road we have traveled, think about the reality we are in, and jointly imagine the possibilities of the future through documentary screenings, crosstalk performances, and live dialogues. Click the link to register now: https://zeffy.com/en-US/ticketing/2025-in-person Timeline: 02:25 Why does speculation without evidence repeatedly attract everyone's attention? 03:01 Who is creating political rumors? Wu Guoguang: The elite class is dissatisfied with Xi Jinping 06:13 Information opacity creates information hunger, but more attention should be paid to people's livelihood issues such as water safety and lead poisoning 08:06 Stalin's logic: The high concentration of power and governance disasters reinforce each other 14:28 Similarities between Stalin's purges and Xi Jinping's purges 16:13 The logic of factional struggles 19:40 What kind of factional struggle is Xi Jinping caught in? 22:36 Taking Chen Xiaojiang as an example, how to analyze the factional affiliation of political figures 25:19 After the 20th National Congress, how did the CCP's factional struggles change? 28:26 Wu Guoguang's complaints about the logic of "Tui Bei Tu" 30:50 Is there still a force within the CCP that can fight back against Xi Jinping? 41:16 How Wu Guoguang analyzes the "decision-making and coordination mechanism" 44:16 Is the "two-line system" about to be launched? Xi Jinping may "retire behind the scenes"? 47:56 Between hope and fact, how not to fall into illusion/decades of research career, honestly face one's own "ignorance" 52:00 An open mind, the ability to identify sources of information, and a cognitive basis for reality are all important 01:00:23 Guest recommendation Guest recommendation: Roy Medvedev "Let History Judge: The Origins and Consequences of Stalinism" Alexander Orlov "The Secret History of Stalin's Purges" Avtorkhanov "The Mystery of Stalin's Death" Related links: "China After Communism: Eight Essays on Transformation (Part 1)" "China After Communism: Eight Essays on Transformation (Part 2)" EP-110 Wu Guoguang: Has Xi Jinping's power reached its peak? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Original title: 吴国光：习近平失去权力了吗？

Original description: <p>过去半年，关于中国高层政治局势的各种传闻此起彼伏。例如，习近平隐身了14天，是因为健康出了问题，废太子胡春华疑似再度受到重用，前常委汪洋要接班……</p><br /><p>油管和推特上的听床师群体在中共高层话题上一向非常活跃，但这一次，包括美国前国家安全顾问、前外交官，还有一些专业智库，都罕见地加入了解读和分析。这些都激荡起海内外的政治想象：习近平真的失去权力了吗？中共真的在经历权力交接吗？</p><br /><p>这期节目，你会听到最有趣、也最复杂的政治传闻。节目嘉宾是斯坦福大学中国经济与制度中心高级研究员吴国光教授。吴国光1986年进入中共中央政治体制改革研讨小组办公室工作，参与了中共十三大前后政制改革政策的研究与制定。作为一个从体制内出走的研究者，他如何看待和研究这些政治传闻？如何理性解析中共高层政治？</p><br /><p>但相比传闻的真假，更重要的问题是，人应该如何在一个信息高度不透明的政治体制下生存？吴国光谈到，多年来，作为一个研究中国的研究者，最重要的事情是：承认自己“知道什么”、“不知道什么”。如何辨别传闻，如何诚实面对自己的“无知”，又如何不落入“抽鸦片”般的幻觉满足里？这是每个中国人都要面对的课题。</p><br /><p>PS：第二届不明白节来啦！9月6日，欢迎听众朋友们来到华盛顿，我们将用一天的时间，透过纪录片放映、相声表演与现场对谈，回顾我们来时的路，思考我们身处的现实，也共同想象未来的可能。点击链接立即报名：<a href="https://zeffy.com/en-US/ticketing/2025-in-person" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://zeffy.com/en-US/ticketing/2025-in-person</a></p><br /><p><strong>文字版</strong>：<a href="https://bit.ly/bmb-162-text" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://bit.ly/bmb-162-text</a></p><br /><p><strong>时间轴：</strong></p><p>02:25 为什么毫无证据的揣测反复吸引大家的关注</p><p>03:01 谁在制造政治传言？吴国光：精英阶层不满习近平</p><p>06:13 信息不透明造成信息饥渴，但更应该关注水安全、铅中毒等民生事件</p><p>08:06 斯大林逻辑：权力的高度集中和治理灾难相互强化</p><p>14:28 斯大林清洗和习近平清洗的相似之处</p><p>16:13 派系斗争的逻辑</p><p>19:40 习近平究竟陷入怎样的派系斗争</p><p>22:36 以陈小江为例，如何分析政治人物的派系所属</p><p>25:19 二十大之后，中共的派系斗争如何变化</p><p>28:26 吴国光对“推背图”逻辑的吐槽</p><p>30:50 中共内部还有能够反击习近平的力量吗？</p><p>41:16 吴国光如何分析“决策议事协调机构”</p><p>44:16 “两线制”即将启动？习近平可能“退居幕后”？</p><p>47:56 在希望和事实之间，如何不落入幻觉/几十年的研究生涯，诚实面对自己的“无知”</p><p>52:00 开放的心态、能辨别信息源、对现实有认知基础，都很重要</p><p>01:00:23 嘉宾推荐</p><br /><p><strong>嘉宾推荐：</strong></p><p><a href="https://bit.ly/162-rec-01" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">罗伊·麦德韦杰夫《让历史来审判：斯大林主义的起源及其后果》</a></p><p><a href="https://bit.ly/162-rec-02" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">亚历山大·奥尔洛夫《斯大林肃反秘史》</a></p><p><a href="https://bit.ly/162-rec-03" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">阿夫托尔哈诺夫《斯大林死之谜》</a></p><br /><p><strong>相关链接：</strong></p><p><a href="https://a.co/d/9KeRt4g" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">《走向共产党之后 的中国： 转型八论 （上）》</a></p><p><a href="https://a.co/d/jhR5xxL" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">《走向共产党之后 的中国： 转型八论 （下）》</a></p><p><a href="https://bumingbai.net/2024/08/31/wu-guoguang/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">EP-110 吴国光：习近平的权力是否到达了顶峰</a></p><hr /><p style="color: grey; font-size: 0.75em;"> Hosted on Acast. See <a href="https://acast.com/privacy" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: grey;" target="_blank">acast.com/privacy</a> for more information.</p>

Online loans seem ubiquitous. Ordering takeout or riding a shared bike brings loan promotions. Obtaining loans is easy: real-name authentication can unlock tens or hundreds of thousands of yuan. This year, the China Consumers Association advised young people to "live within their means" and "avoid online loan traps." But our interviews reveal borrowing stories more complex than "consumerism." A 27-year-old Shanghai internet worker, only worked half the time since graduation, repeatedly fell into a "robbing Peter to pay Paul" loan cycle during unstable employment. He remained hopeful, believing a stable job would repay the loans. But prolonged job searches shattered his confidence. He began defaulting on online loans, disregarding his credit score—marriage, children, and homeownership felt distant. A failed entrepreneur, now impoverished, is trapped in 1.6 million yuan of debt. Re-employed at 37, he experienced the job market's cruelty. The debt's real pressure isn't the amount, but the lack of hope for future earnings. A 26-year-old media professional recalled her online loan experience: how do young people's chaotic finances and unstable income interact? She also reflected on the younger generation's consumerism and lack of financial education. We also invited Professor Victor Shih of UC San Diego to discuss why online lending is so developed in China, how to understand young people's subsistence borrowing, and how these young people trapped in online loans impact China's economic future. **Timeline:** 01:29 Mr. Xia: Using Huabei in college, maxing out at 50-60,000 yuan after starting work. 02:35 Increased pressure after graduation: 20,000 yuan for job training, rental expenses. 05:54 First job paid 5,000 yuan, unable to make ends meet in Shanghai. 07:50 What is it like to be stuck with online loans while frequently job searching? 11:28 Hope for the future: loans can be repaid with a stable job. 15:14 Unwilling to ask family for help, unable to shatter their expectations. 15:56 Giving up on credit score: the path to buying a house, marriage, and children becomes distant. 18:09 Previously no concept of credit score, platform limits give the illusion of having a lot of money. 20:00 Mr. Shao: Entrepreneurial failure, middle-aged impoverishment. 22:19 Entrepreneurial journey: cross-border e-commerce, cryptocurrency trading, self-media. 24:14 Family income declined in 2017, completely losing money after 2019. 26:15 Currently three platforms have collapsed, anxiety stems from a lack of hope. 27:29 Delivering food at 37, "It's not that I don't want to work, it's that I really can't find a job." 31:27 Debt doubled in two years, why no mandatory loan suspension? "I think I can turn things around." 32:51 How to deal with overdue collections? 39:29 Unsuccessful job search, worried that food delivery will become a long-term reality. 41:50 Ms. Xie: How economic pressure increases from internship to work. 45:30 Resigned during the 2022 lockdown, lost stable income. 46:35 Media industry always delays manuscript fees, sometimes waiting three or four months, or even half a year. 47:51 Shame of borrowing online, the more confused the bills, the less you want to face them. 50:31 Self-reflection: Are young people swept up by consumerism? 52:31 Social experience is "when the economy declines, people should save," but during lockdowns, young people just want to live for today. 53:05 Differences in financial management concepts between young people in China and the United States. 58:25 Young people are gradually recognizing the reality of economic downturn. 1:04:19 Victor: Reasons for the development of online lending in China: low cost of capital, underdeveloped credit card system. 1:08:51 Is it reasonable for the government to try to boost consumption with consumer loans? 1:13:41 Large amounts of bad debt have limited impact on the financial system, but have a devastating impact on personal life, employment, and mental health. Related Links: [EP-156 People Struggling in Class Solidification (Part 1)](https://bumingbai.net/2025/06/22/ep-156-jiecengguhua/) [EP-157 Small-Town Essayists Struggling in Class Solidification (Part 2)](https://bumingbai.net/2025/06/28/ep-157-jiecengguhua/) [EP-035 Victor Shih: Will Local Debt Drag Down the Chinese Economy?](https://bumingbai.net/2023/02/04/ep-35-victor-shih-on-local-debt/) Hosted on Acast. See [acast.com/privacy](https://acast.com/privacy) for more information.

Original title: 借网贷的年轻人：从举债消费到举债活着

Original description: <p>网络贷款似乎到了无所不在的地步。点个外卖、骑个共享单车，都会收到来自平台的借贷推销。获取贷款也很容易：只要实名认证，就有可能获得几万甚至几十万元的额度。今年，中国消费者协会提示年轻人消费应该“量力而行”、“避免掉入网贷陷阱”。但在我们的采访中，人们借钱的故事，远比“消费主义”更复杂。</p><br /><p>一位27岁的上海互联网从业者，毕业后的几年里，只有一半时间在工作，在就业不稳定的几年间，多次陷入“拆东墙补西墙”的借贷循环。他始终对未来还抱有期望，坚信只要找到稳定工作，就能还清贷款。但越来越长的求职期击穿了他的信心。他开始任由网贷逾期，不再在乎自己的信用积分——因为结婚生子、买房买车的未来剧本，已经离他的现实生活很远了。</p><br /><p>一位创业失败的返贫者，陷入160万元的债务泥潭。37岁再就业，体会到求职的残酷，他说，债务带来的真正压力并不是一百多万的数字，而是看不到未来挣钱的希望。</p><br /><p>一位26岁的媒体人，回忆了自己使用网贷的经历，年轻人混乱的财务管理和不稳定的收入如何相互影响？她也反思了年轻一代的消费观、缺失的金钱教育。</p><br /><p>我们还邀请了加州大学圣地亚哥分校的史宗瀚（Victor Shih）教授，讨论网络贷款在中国为何如此发达?如何理解年轻人的生存性借贷？如何理解这些困在网贷里的年轻人对中国经济未来的发展会产生什么影响？</p><br /><p><strong>文字版：</strong><a href="https://bit.ly/bmb-161-text" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://bit.ly/bmb-161-text</a></p><br /><p>PS：第二届不明白节来啦！9月6日，欢迎听众朋友们来到华盛顿，你将遇见最有见识的学者、最具文采的作家和最有勇气的纪录片导演。我们将用一天的时间，透过纪录片放映、相声表演与现场对谈，回顾我们来时的路，思考我们身处的现实，也共同想象未来的可能。点击链接立即报名：<a href="https://zeffy.com/en-US/ticketing/2025-in-person" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://zeffy.com/en-US/ticketing/2025-in-person</a></p><br /><p><strong>时间轴：</strong></p><p>01:29 夏先生：大学期间用花呗，工作以后最多欠债五六万</p><p>02:35 毕业之后压力增大：两万元的就业培训班，租房开支</p><p>05:54 第一份工作工资5000元，在上海入不敷出</p><p>07:50 频繁找工作的几年里，无法摆脱网贷的生活状态是什么样的？</p><p>11:28 对未来抱有希望，只要找到稳定工作，贷款总能还清</p><p>15:14 不愿意求助家人，不能打破家里的期望</p><p>15:56 放弃征信：买房、结婚、生子的道路越来越远</p><p>18:09过去对征信毫无概念，平台额度给你一种有很多钱的错觉</p><p>20:00 邵先生：创业失败，中年返贫</p><p>22:19 创业之路：跨境电商、炒币、自媒体</p><p>24:14 2017年家庭收入走下坡路，2019年之后彻底走上赔钱的路</p><p>26:15 目前已有三个平台暴雷，焦虑来源看不到希望</p><p>27:29 37岁跑外卖，“不是不想工作，而是真的找不到工作”</p><p>31:27 两年间债务翻倍，为什么没有强制停贷？”我觉得我能翻身”</p><p>32:51 如何面对逾期催收？</p><p>39:29 找工作未果，担心过渡跑外卖变成长期现实</p><p>41:50 谢女士：从实习到工作，如何感到经济压力越来越大</p><p>45:30 2022年，在封控中辞职，失去稳定收入</p><p>46:35 媒体行业总是拖欠稿费，有时候等三四个月，甚至半年</p><p>47:51 借网贷的耻感，账单越糊涂，越不想面对</p><p>50:31 自我反思：年轻人被消费主义裹挟了吗？</p><p>52:31 社会经验是”经济下行，人应该储蓄”，但在封控中，年轻人只想活够今天</p><p>53:05 中美年轻人理财观念的差距</p><p>58:25 年轻人正在逐渐认清经济下行的现实</p><p>1:04:19 Victor：中国网贷发达的原因：资本成本很低，信用卡体系不发达</p><p>1:08:51 政府试图用消费贷提振消费，是合理的吗？</p><p>1:13:41 大量坏账对金融系统影响有限，但对个人生活、就业、心理健康是毁灭打击</p><br /><p>相关链接：<a href="https://bumingbai.net/2025/06/22/ep-156-jiecengguhua/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">EP-156 在阶层固化中挣扎的人们（上）</a></p><p><a href="https://bumingbai.net/2025/06/28/ep-157-jiecengguhua/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">EP-157 在阶层固化中挣扎的小镇做题家（下）</a></p><p><a href="https://bumingbai.net/2023/02/04/ep-35-victor-shih-on-local-debt/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">EP-035 Victor Shih：地方债会拖垮中国经济吗？</a></p><hr /><p style="color: grey; font-size: 0.75em;"> Hosted on Acast. See <a href="https://acast.com/privacy" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: grey;" target="_blank">acast.com/privacy</a> for more information.</p>

June 19th, an interactive game called "Gold Digger Game" was launched on Steam, quickly topping the Chinese bestseller list and sparking huge controversy. The game tells the story of a delivery driver who is emotionally deceived by a female anchor, goes bankrupt, and then makes a comeback for revenge. The plot alludes to well-known public events such as the Fat Cat case and the Zhai Xinxin case. The game resonated with a large number of male players and received high scores, with a positive review rate once reaching 96%. Many men used words like "revenge" and "dirge of Chinese men" to express their support for the game. Others said they bought the game to fight against "feminism." Why did the Gold Digger Game become so popular so quickly? Why do these men hate women? What social emotions are hidden behind "anti-emotional fraud"? Why are gender conflicts so intense in China today? In this episode, there are both real "misogynistic" voices from the male perspective and their real-world anxieties. I hope the audience will listen to this podcast with an understanding attitude. In addition, I also invited Li Sipan, a visiting scholar at Stanford University. Starting from the content of the game, she pointed out that betrothal gifts, misogyny, and male anger are not simply gender conflicts, but multiple structural problems under the lack of emotional education and insufficient social security. **Timeline:** Mr. Huang: 02:16 What kind of male emotional needs does the Gold Digger Game cater to? 05:51 Game plot: Delivery driver, female anchor, and gold digger organization 13:02 Involuntary celibate men: Thirst for women and misogyny 17:04 We shouldn't contribute our internet attention to the "Gold Digger Game" 21:35 Mr. Huang's view: Equal and diverse game content cannot be achieved by banning Mr. Xi: 25:13 The game is a weapon against "feminism" and gains cyber emotional value at the same time 27:45 The reason why Mr. Xi hates women: He has seen a lot of news about male interests being damaged 30:59 Datong engagement rape case, "Women's will overrides objective evidence"? 32:56 Mr. Xi in real life: 23 years old, never been in a relationship 36:19 "Be sure to pay attention to the distance between you and women" 40:42 Mr. Xi's struggle: Online arguments, resisting Yang Li and JD.com 43:26 Real-world anxiety: Living off parents, staying at home, "take it one step at a time" in the future Linda: 48:00 Linda's view on the Datong case: Rape is a crime, regardless of whether they are in a relationship, and men have not been well-informed about the law 50:00 What is a "free love, no betrothal gift" marriage like? 53:45 "(As a father) if you don't take care of your children, you are from the Qing Dynasty" 1:02:30 Domestic violence and murder walls, women also have deep fears Li Sipan: 01:06:22 The game setting also screens users - lacking interaction with women in real life 01:09:17 The real background of betrothal gift customs: Women are not necessarily the beneficiaries 01:13:22 Economic responsibility and emotional value 01:18:57 The game does not help men understand women, nor does it help men solve real-world problems 01:19:26 Reasons for the severity of gender antagonism 01:23:56 Other issues behind betrothal gifts: Lack of social security, workplace discrimination 01:27:36 Many predicaments are not caused by feminism, but by the lack of feminism Related cases mentioned in this podcast: [Su Xiangmao and Zhai Xinxin case](https://zh.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E8%8B%8F%E4%BA%AB%E8%8C%82%E8%87%AA%E6%9D%80%E4%BA%8B%E4%BB%B6) [Fat Cat case](https://zh.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E2%80%9C%E8%83%96%E7%8C%AB%E2%80%9D%E8%B7%B3%E6%B1%9F%E4%BA%8B%E4%BB%B6) [Datong engagement rape case in Shanxi](https://zh.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%B1%B1%E8%A5%BF%E5%A4%A7%E5%90%8C%E8%AE%A2%E5%A9%9A%E5%BC%BA%E5%A5%B8%E6%A1%88) Recommended reading: [Rape in the Bridal Chamber](https://news.ifeng.com/c/8igdftWaSHb) Hosted on Acast. See [acast.com/privacy](https://acast.com/privacy) for more information.

Original title: “捞女游戏”背后：这些男性为什么厌女？

Original description: <p>6月19日，一款名为“捞女游戏”的互动影游在steam平台上线，迅速登顶中国区热销榜，并引发巨大争议。游戏讲述一位外卖员被女主播情感欺骗，倾家荡产后逆袭复仇的故事。剧情影射了胖猫案翟欣欣案等公众熟知的事件。</p><br /><p>游戏得到了大量男性玩家的共鸣与高分评价，好评率一度达到96%。许多男性用“复仇”“中国男性的悲歌”这样的词语来表达对游戏的支持。还有人表示，他购买游戏是为了对抗“女拳”。</p><br /><p>捞女游戏为何能迅速爆红？这些男性为什么厌女？“情感反诈”背后，隐藏的是怎样的社会情绪？在今天的中国，性别矛盾为何如此激烈？</p><br /><p>本期节目里，既有来自男性视角的真实“厌女”声音，也有他们的现实焦虑，我希望观众朋友们能抱着了解的心态来收听这期播客。此外，我还邀请了斯坦福大学访问学者李思磐，她从游戏内容谈起，指出彩礼、仇女、男性愤怒并非简单的性别矛盾，而是情感教育缺失、社会保障不足下的多重结构性问题。</p><br /><p><strong>文字版</strong>：<a href="https://bit.ly/bmb-160-text" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://bit.ly/bmb-160-text</a></p><br /><p><strong>时间轴：</strong></p><p>黄先生：</p><p>02:16 捞女游戏迎合了什么样的男性情绪需求</p><p>05:51 游戏情节：外卖员、女主播与捞女组织</p><p>13:02 非自愿独身男性：渴女又厌女</p><p>17:04 对于“捞女游戏”，不应该贡献自己的互联网注意力</p><p>21:35 黄先生的观点：游戏内容的平等多元无法靠封禁达成</p><br /><p>Xi先生：</p><p>25:13 游戏是对抗“女拳”的武器，同时获得赛博情绪价值</p><p>27:45 xi先生厌女的原因：看了很多男性利益受损的新闻</p><p>30:59 大同订婚强奸案，“妇女意志压过了客观证据”？</p><p>32:56 现实里的xi先生：23岁，从来没有谈过恋爱</p><p>36:19 “一定要注意与女性的距离”</p><p>40:42 xi先生的斗争：网络对线，抵制杨笠和京东</p><p>43:26 现实焦虑：啃老、宅家、未来”走一步看一步“</p><br /><p>Linda:</p><p>48:00 Linda看大同案：强奸是犯罪，跟在不在关系里无关，男性未被很好普法</p><p>50:00 ”自由恋爱、没有彩礼“的婚姻是什么样的？</p><p>53:45 ”（作为爸爸）不带孩子，你就是从清朝过来的人“</p><p>1:02:30 家暴及被谋杀墙，女性同样也有很深的恐惧</p><br /><p>李思磐：</p><p>01:06:22 游戏设定也是筛选用户——在现实生活中跟女性缺乏互动</p><p>01:09:17 彩礼习俗的现实背景：女性并不一定是受益者</p><p>01:13:22 经济责任与情绪价值</p><p>01:18:57 游戏无助于男性了解女性，也无助于男性解决现实问题</p><p>01:19:26 性别对立问题严峻的原因</p><p>01:23:56 彩礼背后的其他问题：缺失的社会保障、职场歧视</p><p>01:27:36 许多困境不是女权主义造成的，而是缺乏女权主义造成的</p><br /><p>本期播客提到的相关案件：</p><p><a href="https://zh.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E8%8B%8F%E4%BA%AB%E8%8C%82%E8%87%AA%E6%9D%80%E4%BA%8B%E4%BB%B6" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">苏享茂与翟欣欣案</a></p><p><a href="https://zh.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E2%80%9C%E8%83%96%E7%8C%AB%E2%80%9D%E8%B7%B3%E6%B1%9F%E4%BA%8B%E4%BB%B6" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">胖猫案</a></p><p><a href="https://zh.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%B1%B1%E8%A5%BF%E5%A4%A7%E5%90%8C%E8%AE%A2%E5%A9%9A%E5%BC%BA%E5%A5%B8%E6%A1%88" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">山西大同订婚强奸案</a></p><p>推荐阅读：<a href="https://news.ifeng.com/c/8igdftWaSHb" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">《婚房里的强奸案》</a></p><hr /><p style="color: grey; font-size: 0.75em;"> Hosted on Acast. See <a href="https://acast.com/privacy" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: grey;" target="_blank">acast.com/privacy</a> for more information.</p>

"I have no enemies," Liu Xiaobo's final statement in court. On December 8, 2008, Liu Xiaobo was arrested in Beijing. Two days later, the "Charter 08" was released. He was sentenced to 11 years in prison for inciting subversion of state power. In 2010, he won the Nobel Peace Prize in prison. On July 13, 2017, he became the first Nobel laureate to die in custody since German journalist Carl von Ossietzky in 1938. Today is July 13, 2025, eight years since Liu Xiaobo's death. In today's Chinese context, the name of this Nobel laureate has long disappeared from public space and the Internet, and DeepSeek has also erased his existence. But he was the most watched academic star in China in the 1980s. On the evening of June 3, 1989, he stayed in Tiananmen Square and negotiated with the military and the government, so that the student protesters in Tiananmen Square avoided the bloodshed that occurred elsewhere in Beijing. Despite having many opportunities to go into exile abroad, he chose to stay in China and was imprisoned many times. In this episode, we invited the famous sinologist Perry Link. In 2023, Perry Link and Chinese scholar Wu Dazhi co-authored "I Have No Enemies: Liu Xiaobo's Life and Legacy." This book introduces Liu Xiaobo's personal experience and ideological evolution, and also outlines the complex picture of Chinese political thought and dissident movements in the past half century. We discussed with Perry Link about Liu Xiaobo in his eyes: How did a person who claimed to "have no enemies" challenge a highly adversarial political system? Is Liu Xiaobo's fate also a microcosm of the collective fate of Chinese liberal intellectuals? Can his political legacy still resonate in a high-pressure era? **Timeline:** 00:03 Who is Liu Xiaobo? 02:36 Perry Link's first impression of Liu Xiaobo: "Young, talkative, and impulsive" 06:11 Charter 08: The Chinese society expected by intellectuals 09:44 Liu Xiaobo's work before his arrest: editing Charter 08 and finding people to sign it 10:28 Recalling the process of translating Charter 08 16:23 Liu Xiaobo in Perry Link's eyes: independent thinking, "greedy reading", and strong self-criticism 22:08 Liu Xiaobo wins the Nobel Peace Prize, "This is the time" 24:01 Iconoclast, rebellious by nature, the storm of "China needs to be colonized for three hundred years" 30:29 How to understand Liu Xiaobo's saying "I have no enemies", is it a strategy? Moral declaration? Or political philosophy? 34:55 Is there still hope for non-violent democratic transition? "Openly lying flat" is also a kind of resistance 41:00 Liu Xiaobo once hoped that the Internet would spread ideas, but did the Internet eventually become a tool of the rulers? 44:50 The story of two stadiums: those executed by firing squad and Messi fans 48:23 "Liu Xiaobo Biography" does not avoid Liu Xiaobo's disgraceful past, including his infidelity to his ex-wife 54:59 If Liu Xiaobo were still alive, would he be a Trump fan? How does he view feminism and the metoo movement? 58:52 The missing final manuscript, "There must be his most precious and mature things" 01:00:35 After Liu Xiaobo, where are the new faces? 01:03:30 Why the Western world doesn't care about Liu Xiaobo, and talks emptily about the dangers of Chinese autocracy 01:10:35 Guest recommendation Guest Recommendations: Michael J. Klarman, "The Framers' Coup: The Making of the United States Constitution" Cha Jianying, "Trains: A Chinese Family History of Railway Journeys, Exile, and Survival" "Chai Jing Interviews Chinese Soldiers Fighting for Ukraine: 'My Heart Houses My Dead Brothers'" Related Links: Perry Link, Wu Dazhi, "I Have No Enemies: Liu Xiaobo's Life and Legacy" Liu Xiaobo: "I Have No Enemies - My Final Statement" Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Original title: 林培瑞：去世八年，刘晓波给我们留下了什么？

Original description: <p>“我没有敌人”，这是刘晓波在法庭上的最后陈述。2008年12月8日，刘晓波在北京被捕，两天后《零八宪章》发布，他被以煽动颠覆国家政权罪判处11年监禁，2010年他在狱中获得了诺贝尔和平奖，2017年7月13日，他成为自1938年德国记者卡尔·冯·奥西茨基(Carl von Ossietzky)以来，首位在羁押中去世的诺贝尔奖得主。</p><br /><p>今天是2025年7月13日，刘晓波去世已八年。在今天的中文语境中，这位诺奖得主的名字早已消失于公共空间和网络，DeepSeek也抹去了他的存在。但他曾是中国八十年代最受瞩目的学术明星，1989年6月3日晚上，他留在天安门广场，与军方和政府谈判，使天安门广场上的学生抗议者避免了在北京其他地方发生的流血事件。尽管有多次流亡海外的机会，他选择留在中国，并多次入狱。</p><br /><p>本期节目，我们邀请了著名汉学家林培瑞，2023年，林培瑞与笔名为吴大志（Wu Dazhi）的中国学者合写了《我没有敌人：刘晓波的生平与遗产》。这本书介绍了刘晓波的个人经历和思想演变，也同时勾勒出过去半个世纪中国政治思想与异议运动的复杂图景。</p><br /><p>我们和林培瑞讨论了他眼中的刘晓波：一个自称“没有敌人”的人，如何挑战了一个高度敌我划分的政治体制？刘晓波的命运是否也是中国自由派知识分子集体命运的缩影？他的政治遗产是否还可能在一个高压时代留下回响？</p><br /><p>文字版：<a href="https://bit.ly/bmb-159-text" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://bit.ly/bmb-159-text</a></p><br /><p><strong>时间轴：</strong></p><p>00:03 刘晓波是谁？</p><p>02:36 林培瑞对刘晓波的第一印象，“年纪小，话很多，性情很冲”</p><p>06:11 《零八宪章》：知识分子期望中的中国社会</p><p>09:44 刘晓波被捕前的工作：编辑《零八宪章》，找人签名</p><p>10:28 回忆翻译《零八宪章》的过程</p><p>16:23 林培瑞眼中的刘晓波：独立思考、“贪婪无度地读书”、自我批评能力强</p><p>22:08 刘晓波获得诺贝尔和平奖，“This is the time”</p><p>24:01 偶像破坏者、天性反叛的人，“中国需要被殖民三百年”言论风波</p><p>30:29 如何理解刘晓波说“我没有敌人”，是策略？道德宣言？还是政治哲学？</p><p>34:55 非暴力民主转型还有希望吗？“公开躺平的态度”也是一种反抗</p><p>41:00刘晓波曾寄希望互联网传播思想，但网络最终变成统治者的工具？</p><p>44:50 两个体育馆的故事：被枪决者与梅西球迷</p><p>48:23 “刘晓波传”没有回避刘晓波的不光彩往事，包括他对前妻的不忠</p><p>54:59 如果刘晓波还活着，他会是川粉吗？他如何看待女权和metoo运动？</p><p>58:52 下落不明的临终手稿，“肯定有他最宝贵最成熟的东西”</p><p>01:00:35刘晓波之后，新的面孔在哪里？</p><p>01:03:30 为什么西方世界不关心刘晓波，空谈中国专制的危险</p><p>01:10:35 嘉宾推荐</p><br /><p>嘉宾推荐：</p><p><a href="https://book.douban.com/subject/36428707/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">迈克尔·J.克拉曼《利益的天平——制宪者的“政变”与美国宪法的制定》</a></p><p><a href="https://www.chinafile.com/reporting-opinion/features/trains-chinese-family-history-of-railway-journeys-exile-and-survival" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">查建英《Trains: A Chinese Family History of Railway Journeys, Exile, and Survival》</a></p><p><a href="https://youtu.be/AhhQ3e8Re1k?feature=shared" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">《柴静对话为乌克兰作战的中国士兵：“我的心灵安置着我死去的弟兄”》</a></p><br /><p>相关链接：</p><p><a href="https://cup.columbia.edu/book/i-have-no-enemies/9780231216760/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">林培瑞、吴大志《我没有敌人：刘晓波的生平与遗产》</a></p><p><a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/uploads/2018/06/xiaobo-lecture_ch.pdf" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">刘晓波：我没有敌人——我的最后陈述</a></p><hr /><p style="color: grey; font-size: 0.75em;"> Hosted on Acast. See <a href="https://acast.com/privacy" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: grey;" target="_blank">acast.com/privacy</a> for more information.</p>

As a film directly confronting the pandemic and lockdowns, Lou Ye's "An Unfinished Film" understandably failed to be released in China and lacked a Douban entry. However, people still saw the film in overseas cinemas and in secretly circulated online drives. Director Lou Ye once said that a film exists because it is seen by the audience. Recently, we invited listeners to write down their feelings after watching the film. Many people mentioned forgetting, memories awakened by the film, and crying and silence while watching. The film stirred up so many complex, profound, and heavy emotions because many memories have not been properly preserved, and much history has not been properly treated. These letters are not only viewing emotions but also our collective response and testimony to the three years of the pandemic and the era of silence. Thank you to the listeners for their sincere letters. With their consent, we have for the first time attempted to use AI to generate the listeners' voices. There are minor spoilers in the letters. Text version: https://bit.ly/bmb-158-text Related links: The netizen mentioned in the intro: https://www.threads.com/@yuengkong/post/DFgSs4FzmsN?xmt=AQF08byyeGOJ8fSrEF0wts7Tsp50wRizZce8PJHhvSTB2w EP-001 Murong Xuecun: Voices from Wuhan: https://bumingbai.net/2022/05/27/ep-001-murong-xuecun/

Original title: 《一部未完成的电影》——观众的沉默与泪水

Original description: <p>作为一部直面疫情与封控的电影，娄烨导演的《一部未完成的电影》理所当然地未能在中国上映，也未能拥有豆瓣条目。但人们还是在海外的影院、在隐秘流传的网盘里看到了这部电影。</p><br /><p>娄烨导演曾说，电影因为观众看到得以存在。最近，我们邀请听众朋友们写下观影后的感受。许多人在来信中提到遗忘、被电影唤醒的记忆、观影时候的哭泣与沉默。电影牵动了如此多复杂、幽深、厚重的情绪，因为有很多的记忆没有被好好保存，很多历史没有被好好对待。这些来信不仅是观影的情绪，更是我们一起对疫情三年、对失语时代的回应与见证。</p><br /><p>谢谢听众们的真诚来信，在征得同意后，我们首次尝试了用AI生成听众的声音。来信里有少量剧透。</p><br /><p>文字版：<a href="https://bit.ly/bmb-158-text" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://bit.ly/bmb-158-text</a></p><br /><p>相关链接：</p><p>intro里提到的<a href="https://www.threads.com/@yuengkong/post/DFgSs4FzmsN?xmt=AQF08byyeGOJ8fSrEF0wts7Tsp50wRizZce8PJHhvSTB2w" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">网友</a></p><p><a href="https://bumingbai.net/2022/05/27/ep-001-murong-xuecun/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">EP-001 慕容雪村：武汉传来的声音</a></p><hr /><p style="color: grey; font-size: 0.75em;"> Hosted on Acast. See <a href="https://acast.com/privacy" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: grey;" target="_blank">acast.com/privacy</a> for more information.</p>

Since the 1980s, over 800 million Chinese people have been lifted out of poverty. Hundreds of millions have moved from rural areas to cities, and tens of millions have become the first college students in their families. For many, it was an era full of opportunities for upward mobility. However, in recent years, with the economic slowdown, this channel for upward mobility has become increasingly narrow. We asked our listeners to submit stories of "feeling anxious about class solidification." In the previous episode, we heard two middle-aged people share how their lives struggled with the ups and downs of the economic situation. The three narrators in this episode are all born in the 90s. Boris saved money after working for 6 years to study for a postgraduate degree in Hong Kong. He wanted to get rid of the regret of his first academic qualification, but found that he had to face a more difficult employment environment than when he graduated from undergraduate. Liang, a student studying for a doctorate in Japan, calls himself an extreme case of social mobility. Josh, who graduated from a 211 university, like many young people, feels confused about his major, work, and future. What are their stories? How did the "small-town exam takers" who once firmly believed in "education changes destiny" reinterpret this sentence in the process of growing up? How do they view their situation? How to redefine "effort" and "hope"? We also have to think about where society will go if a generation of young people lose hope for the future? In addition, almost all of the letters collected this time came from male listeners. In the future, we look forward to hearing more voices from women. Text version: [https://bit.ly/bmb-157-text](https://bit.ly/bmb-157-text) **Timeline:** 02:09 Boris's self-introduction: Graduated in 2016, went to Hong Kong for postgraduate studies after working for 6 years 02:27 Comparison of the job search environment faced by the two graduations 07:31 339 resumes were sent out, with a response rate of 13% 08:13 Encountered absurd questions in the interview: academic discrimination, family background questioning 09:11 The job search period lasted 9 months, and both money and confidence suffered a double blow 11:31 Boris, as the child of laid-off workers, worked part-time at university 13:28 Mom canceled the school's text message notification to save 3 yuan 18:59 Motivation to move up: verbal stimulation from relatives, self-esteem, disappointment with vocational education 23:24 Believes he has benefited from gender and economic dividends, pessimistic about the future 27:45 Liang: "If you want to know where the limit of small-town exam takers is" 28:02 Born in a western state-owned enterprise family, felt increasingly strong class gap from elementary school to university 32:52 Entering university, the biggest challenge is "not knowing what to do" 35:22 Feels obvious unfairness, but is very proud of his achievements 36:58 Tutoring, distributing flyers, "doing whatever he can", graduated from university and saved money to go to Japan 39:54 Received an offer from Columbia University, was scared off by the high tuition fees, and chose to stay in Japan 41:25 Considers himself an extreme case of social mobility, and hardly contacts his elementary school classmates anymore 42:46 Self-taught Japanese, extremely low consumption, living an ascetic life 44:09 Future choice to stay in Japan 46:24 Josh: Born in a rural area in the south, his parents are migrant workers, and he started participating in family labor in childhood 48:01 Disappointment after going to university: utilitarian atmosphere, dislike of major 48:53 The first job only lasted half a year, resigned to take the postgraduate entrance examination 50:42 Father tried to spend money to ask for favors to find him a job 52:05 Spent 20,000 yuan to sign up for a re-employment training class 54:13 Found a new job, but resigned again soon due to "high pressure" 01:02:16 Started feeling the gap from student days, high school classmates had early access to the external network and learned programming 01:03:22 Being a civil servant, doing business, joining a big company, it is difficult to turn over no matter what you do 01:05:54 Josh's imagination of the future: unwilling to marry and have children in the future Related links: [https://bumingbai.net/2025/06/22/ep-156-jiecengguhua/](https://bumingbai.net/2025/06/22/ep-156-jiecengguhua/) [https://bumingbai.net/2024/09/28/ep-115-jiuye/](https://bumingbai.net/2024/09/28/ep-115-jiuye/) Hosted on Acast. See [acast.com/privacy](https://acast.com/privacy) for more information.

Original title: 在阶层固化中挣扎的小镇做题家（下）

Original description: <p>上世纪80年代以来，超过8亿中国人摆脱了贫困。几亿人从农村搬进了城市，数以千万计的人成为家里的第一个大学生。对于不少人来说，那是一个充满上升通道的时代。但近几年，随着经济放缓，这种向上流动的通道越来越窄。</p><br /><p>我们向听众征集了“对阶层固化感到焦虑”的故事。上一期节目里，我们听到了两位中年人分享了他们的人生如何随着经济形势起伏而苦苦挣扎。</p><br /><p>这一期节目里的三位讲述者都是90后，Boris在工作6年之后攒钱去香港念研究生，他想摆脱第一学历的遗憾，却发现要面对比本科毕业时更艰难的就业环境；在日本念博士的梁同学自称社会流动里的极端个案；毕业于211大学的Josh和许多年轻人一样，对专业、工作和未来都感到迷茫。</p><br /><p>他们的故事是怎么样的？曾经笃行的“教育改变命运”的小镇做题家们，如何在成长过程中重新理解了这句话？他们怎么看待自己的处境？如何重新定义“努力”与“希望”？我们也不得不思考，如果一代年轻人都对未来失去希望，社会会走向何方？</p><br /><p>另外，这一次征集的来信几乎全部来自男性听众。未来，我们期待能听到更多女性的声音。</p><br /><p>文字版：<a href="https://bit.ly/bmb-157-text" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://bit.ly/bmb-157-text</a></p><br /><p><strong>时间轴：</strong></p><p>02:09 Boris的自我介绍：2016年毕业，工作6年后赴港读研</p><p>02:27 两次毕业所面临的求职环境对比</p><p>07:31 海投了339份简历，响应率13%</p><p>08:13 面试中遇到荒诞问题：学历歧视、家庭背景盘问</p><p>09:11 求职期长达9个月，金钱信心遭受双重打击</p><p>11:31 Boris作为下岗工人子女，大学勤工俭学</p><p>13:28 妈妈为了省下3块钱，取消了学校短信通知</p><p>18:59 向上走的动力：亲人言语刺激、自尊心、对职业教育的失望</p><p>23:24 自认吃到了性别红利和经济红利，对未来悲观</p><br /><p>27:45 梁同学： “如果你想知道小镇做题家的极限在哪里”</p><p>28:02 出生于西部国企家庭，从小学到大学，感受到逐渐强烈的阶级落差</p><p>32:52 进入大学，最大的挑战是“不知道做什么”</p><p>35:22 感受到明显的不公平，但很为自己取得的成绩感到自豪</p><p>36:58 做家教、发传单、“有什么做什么”，大学毕业，自己攒钱去日本</p><p>39:54 拿到哥伦比亚大学offer，被高昂学费吓退，选择留在日本</p><p>41:25 自认为是社会流动中的极端个案，和小学同学几乎不再联系</p><p>42:46 自学日语、极低消费，过苦行僧式的生活</p><p>44:09 未来选择留在日本</p><br /><p>46:24 Josh：南方农村出生，父母是农民工，童年开始参与家庭劳动</p><p>48:01 上大学后的失落：功利氛围，不喜欢专业</p><p>48:53 第一份工作只做了半年，辞职考研</p><p>50:42 父亲试图花钱托关系为他找工作</p><p>52:05 花费2万元报名再就业培训班</p><p>54:13 重新找工作，因“高压”很快再离职</p><p>01:02:16 从学生时代开始感受差距，高中同学早早接触外网、学习编程</p><p>01:03:22 做公务员、做生意、进大公司，无论做什么都很难再翻身</p><p>01:05:54 Josh对未来的想象：未来不愿意结婚生子</p><br /><p>相关链接：</p><p><a href="https://bumingbai.net/2025/06/22/ep-156-jiecengguhua/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">EP-156 在阶层固化中挣扎的人们（上）</a></p><p><a href="https://bumingbai.net/2024/09/28/ep-115-jiuye/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">EP-115 中国高校就业数据如何造假？</a></p><hr /><p style="color: grey; font-size: 0.75em;"> Hosted on Acast. See <a href="https://acast.com/privacy" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: grey;" target="_blank">acast.com/privacy</a> for more information.</p>

We recently solicited stories from listeners about "feeling anxious about class solidification" and received many letters. This episode is the first, with guests Mr. Zhao, 38, and Mr. Liu, who is almost 50. They, who did not attend university, experienced a little of the economic boom at different stages when they were young. However, after the epidemic, the overall social economy has been in a slump, the real estate industry has been in turmoil, the labor market has been sluggish, and especially the jobs for older workers have decreased, and they have all begun to feel a sense of stagnation or even regression. Mr. Zhao is from a rural area in Shanxi. He used to be an underground miner. Later, he drifted north and worked as an extra, real estate agent, and loan business in Beijing. He used to have a considerable monthly income, but in the past two years, his income has been almost zero due to the decline of the industry. Mr. Liu used to work in engineering construction in a large state-owned enterprise in Northeast China. He personally experienced the wave of layoffs in the 1990s, and later worked all over the country. At nearly 50 years old, he faces a life of being owed wages, difficulty finding work, and no place to retire. In this episode, we will hear the stories of ordinary workers and their different feelings about "social mobility" and "class solidification." Text version: https://bit.ly/bmb-156-text Timeline: 01:34 Mr. Zhao is from a rural area in Shanxi, and his father is a coal miner in a black coal mine. 02:32 The first job at the age of 18, a gas worker in a coal mine, with a harsh underground environment 06:24 Resigned and drifted north, going to Beijing with a performance dream 07:21 Studied acting at the Central Academy of Drama and worked as an extra 09:08 Switched to being a real estate agent, "feeling very decent to make money" 11:18 Switched to being a loan agent, earning 100,000 yuan a month at its peak 12:28 After 2024, business decreased and income plummeted 14:19 Considered delivering food and returning to work in coal mines 15:41 "Unable to rise, and difficult to sink" 18:35 If there are children, I hope they have a good environment and a good personality. 21:10 Thinking about whether to leave Beijing 22:24 Mr. Liu: Writing from a hot rental house 23:32 When he was young, he was an employee of a state-owned enterprise. He originally hoped to live a stable life in the state-owned enterprise until retirement. 24:42 Laid off from state-owned enterprises, went out to work 26:17 During the epidemic, the project was suspended and he lay flat at home for a year. 28:03 Comparing the "layoff wave" with the present: I was confident in finding a job back then, but now I am more pessimistic. 29:27 Employment deteriorated after the epidemic, "feeling of powerlessness" 31:32 Expectations for children: "In short, if you want to be a beast of burden, it is better to be a beast of burden abroad." 39:21 Owed five months of wages, no savings, and no place to retire Related links: EP-115 How is China's college employment data falsified? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Original title: 在阶层固化中挣扎的人们（上）

Original description: <p>&nbsp;最近我们向听众征集“对阶级固化感到焦虑”的故事，收到了许多来信。本期节目是第一期，嘉宾分别是38岁的赵先生和即将50岁的刘先生。没有上过大学的他们，年轻时曾在不同阶段感受过一点点经济上行期的红利。但疫情之后，整体社会经济一蹶不振，房地产暴雷，劳动市场萎靡，尤其是面向大龄劳动者的工作变少，他们都开始感到一种停滞甚至倒退。</p><br /><p>赵先生来自山西农村，曾做过井下矿工，之后北漂，在北京做过群众演员、房地产中介、贷款行业，曾月入可观，但近两年因行业衰退几乎没有收入。刘先生早年在东北大型国企做工程建设，亲历过90年代下岗潮，后来一直在全国各地辗转打工。快50岁的他面对着被欠薪、工作难找和养老无着落的人生。</p><br /><p>在这期节目里，我们会听到普通劳动者的故事以及他们对“社会流动”与“阶层固化”的不同感受。</p><br /><p>文字版：<a href="https://bit.ly/bmb-156-text" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://bit.ly/bmb-156-text</a></p><br /><p><strong>时间轴：</strong></p><p>01:34 赵先生来自山西农村，父亲是黑煤窑矿工</p><p>02:32 18岁的第一份工作，煤矿瓦斯工，下井环境恶劣</p><p>06:24 辞职北漂，带着表演梦去北京</p><p>07:21 在中戏学表演，做过群众演员</p><p>09:08 转行做房地产中介，“感觉挣钱非常体面”</p><p>11:18 转行做贷款中介，辉煌时月入十万</p><p>12:28 2024年之后业务减少，收入骤减</p><p>14:19 考虑过送外卖、回煤矿工作</p><p>15:41 “无法跃升，也难以沉下去”</p><p>18:35 如果有孩子，希望有好的环境，塑造好的人格</p><p>21:10 思考是否要离开北京</p><p>22:24 刘先生：在高温的出租房里来信</p><p>23:32 年轻时是国企员工，原本希望在国企稳定生活直到退休</p><p>24:42 国企下岗分流，外出打工</p><p>26:17 疫情期间项目停工，回家躺平了一年</p><p>28:03 对比“下岗潮”与现在时：当年还有信心找工作，现在更悲观</p><p>29:27 疫情后就业恶化，“无力感”</p><p>31:32 给孩子的期望：“总之要做牛马，不如去国外做牛马”</p><p>39:21 被欠薪五个月，没有积蓄，养老无着落</p><br /><p>相关链接：</p><p><a href="https://bumingbai.net/2024/09/28/ep-115-jiuye/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">EP-115 中国高校就业数据如何造假？</a></p><hr /><p style="color: grey; font-size: 0.75em;"> Hosted on Acast. See <a href="https://acast.com/privacy" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: grey;" target="_blank">acast.com/privacy</a> for more information.</p>

中国官方一直在塑造这样一种希望：中国制造的“新三样”——电动汽车、锂电池和太阳能电池，正在成为拉动中国经济的新引擎。今年，国产大语言模型 DeepSeek 横空出世，让很多人重新找回了一种民族科技和文化的信心。 另一个中国里，却是截然不同的景象：欠薪事件频发，失业问题严重，消费疲软，社会保障不足，地方债务危机加重，年轻人因失去希望而不愿结婚生子…… 为什么“两个中国”同时存在？技术突破和产业升级，为什么没有变成普通人的“好日子”？本期节目，袁莉和李厚辰一起谈论，为什么“新三样”和AI救不了中国经济？ 李厚辰是「翻转电台」和 YouTube频道「世界苦茶」的主持人，也是一位时事和经济分析专栏作家，他带来了他对中国经济现象的分析和观察，例如科创表面蓬勃，背后却是风投和民间投资的逐年萎靡；华为等大公司总是为了“国家安全”在重复发明；被誉为希望的电动汽车产业实际上饱受价格战和产能过剩之累……袁莉则带来她常年对科技和商业领域的采访观察。欢迎收听本期节目。 **文字版：**https://bit.ly/bmb-155-text **时间轴：** 01:57 “中国的经济就像吃了兴奋剂的人”，局部繁荣难以掩盖系统性萧条 06:56 中国经济中的资源如何错配？ 08:29 合肥模式与产业投资泡沫 11:38 风投行业这么萎靡，这么多初创企业从哪儿来的？ 14:48 大公司科创困境：为了国家安全重复发明“轮子” 20:46 中国企业“战术上勤奋，战略上懒惰”？ 22:35 价格战 、产能过剩、毛利降低：电动车行业即将暴雷？ 28:31 新三样在国际贸易中真的那么如鱼得水吗？ 33:52 为什么新质生产力无法拯救经济疲软？ 35:31 出口补贴越高，财政税收拖累越严重 38:30 “比亚迪过去五年净利润940亿，从政府拿了860亿现金补贴” 41:32 新质生产力靠国家巨额补贴推动，并非市场行为 42:49 AI提升生产力的同时也制造更多失业 48:46 为什么中国政府如此痴迷新质生产力？ 57:23 嘉宾推荐 嘉宾推荐： 黄道炫《铁水流：战时中共革命系统的运作（1937-1945）》 《台灣地方政治讀本: 來自青年世代的提問、實踐與反思》 Harukata Takenaka《Failed Democratization in Prewar Japan》 相关链接： EP-132 李厚辰：2015、2016——改变中国的两年 YouTube频道：FearNation世界苦茶

Original title: 李厚辰：为什么“新三样”和AI救不了中国经济？

Original description: <p>中国官方一直在塑造这样一种希望：中国制造的“新三样”——电动汽车、锂电池和太阳能电池，正在成为拉动中国经济的新引擎。今年，国产大语言模型 DeepSeek 横空出世，让很多人重新找回了一种民族科技和文化的信心。</p><br /><p>另一个中国里，却是截然不同的景象：欠薪事件频发，失业问题严重，消费疲软，社会保障不足，地方债务危机加重，年轻人因失去希望而不愿结婚生子……</p><br /><p>为什么“两个中国”同时存在？技术突破和产业升级，为什么没有变成普通人的“好日子”？本期节目，袁莉和李厚辰一起谈论，为什么“新三样”和AI救不了中国经济？</p><br /><p>李厚辰是「翻转电台」和 YouTube频道「世界苦茶」的主持人，也是一位时事和经济分析专栏作家，他带来了他对中国经济现象的分析和观察，例如科创表面蓬勃，背后却是风投和民间投资的逐年萎靡；华为等大公司总是为了“国家安全”在重复发明；被誉为希望的电动汽车产业实际上饱受价格战和产能过剩之累……袁莉则带来她常年对科技和商业领域的采访观察。欢迎收听本期节目。</p><br /><p><strong>文字版：</strong><a href="https://bit.ly/bmb-155-text" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://bit.ly/bmb-155-text</a></p><br /><p><strong>时间轴：</strong></p><br /><p>01:57 “中国的经济就像吃了兴奋剂的人”，局部繁荣难以掩盖系统性萧条</p><p>06:56 中国经济中的资源如何错配？</p><p>08:29 合肥模式与产业投资泡沫</p><p>11:38 风投行业这么萎靡，这么多初创企业从哪儿来的？</p><p>14:48 大公司科创困境：为了国家安全重复发明“轮子”</p><p>20:46 中国企业“战术上勤奋，战略上懒惰”？</p><p>22:35 价格战 、产能过剩、毛利降低：电动车行业即将暴雷？</p><p>28:31 新三样在国际贸易中真的那么如鱼得水吗？</p><p>33:52 为什么新质生产力无法拯救经济疲软？</p><p>35:31 出口补贴越高，财政税收拖累越严重</p><p>38:30 “比亚迪过去五年净利润940亿，从政府拿了860亿现金补贴”</p><p>41:32 新质生产力靠国家巨额补贴推动，并非市场行为</p><p>42:49 AI提升生产力的同时也制造更多失业</p><p>48:46 为什么中国政府如此痴迷新质生产力？</p><p>57:23 嘉宾推荐</p><br /><p>嘉宾推荐：</p><p><a href="https://www.amazon.co.jp/-/en/%E9%BB%83%E9%81%93%E7%82%AB/dp/988237316X" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">黄道炫《铁水流：战时中共革命系统的运作（1937-1945）》</a></p><p><a href="https://www.amazon.com/-/zh_TW/%E5%9A%B4%E5%A9%89%E7%8E%B2-ebook/dp/B0CF144NZL" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">《台灣地方政治讀本: 來自青年世代的提問、實踐與反思》</a></p><p><a href="https://www.sup.org/books/politics/failed-democratization-prewar-japan" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Harukata Takenaka《Failed Democratization in Prewar Japan》</a></p><br /><p>相关链接：</p><p><a href="https://bumingbai.net/2025/01/18/ep-132-lihouchen/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">EP-132 李厚辰：2015、2016——改变中国的两年</a></p><p><a href="http://www.youtube.com/@flipradio_fearnation" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">YouTube频道：FearNation世界苦茶</a></p><hr /><p style="color: grey; font-size: 0.75em;"> Hosted on Acast. See <a href="https://acast.com/privacy" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: grey;" target="_blank">acast.com/privacy</a> for more information.</p>